Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Leicester City vs. Sheffield United (Sunday, March 14)
Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Timothy Castagne of Leicester City.
- Powerful Leicester City hosts last-place Sheffield United in Sunday's Premier League match at King Power Stadium.
- The Foxes, who are sitting third in the standings, will be without Harvey Barnes and James Maddison when they face an opponent headed for relegation.
- Kieran Darcy explains below how to find value in this meeting by focusing on the total.
Leicester City vs. Sheffield United Odds
|Leicester City Odds||-195|
|Sheffield United Odds||+620|
|Over/Under||1.5 (-101 / -107)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
The second of four Premier League matches on Sunday is about as lopsided as it gets, in terms of the table — third-place Leicester City hosting last-place Sheffield United.
The Foxes are trying to secure a top-four finish — they currently have a 56% chance of doing so, according to FiveThirtyEight. As for the Blades, they’re practically relegated already — 12 points from safety with 10 matches to play.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
Leicester City entered the weekend with 53 points and a five-point lead over fifth-place West Ham. They have a great opportunity to increase that lead to eight points here, before West Ham’s difficult match at second-place Manchester United later in the day.
The Foxes’ results have been mixed of late. They are coming off a 2-1 win at Brighton last Saturday, but prior to that came a 1-1 draw at Burnley and a 3-1 loss to Arsenal in the league. They also were knocked out of the Europa League, losing 2-0 to Slavia Prague.
The team is clearly missing the injured Harvey Barnes and James Maddison, who are out against Sheffield United as well. Barnes and Maddison are the team’s second- and third-leading scorers, with 17 goals (and nine assists) between them in the league.
In terms of the underlying numbers, Leicester City have been a bit fortunate this season, though. Their xG (expected goal) differential is only +5.5 according to FBRef.com, which ranks them seventh in the league. West Ham are right above them, by the way, at +6.5.
As mentioned above, Sheffield United are as good as gone. They’ll be playing in the Championship next season, and their remaining 10 Premier League matches are relatively meaningless — to them, at least.
They’ll also have a new manager in charge, with this news becoming official on Saturday:
Sheffield United confirms that Chris Wilder has left the Club by mutual consent.
— Sheffield United (@SheffieldUnited) March 13, 2021
Regardless of who the manager is, it’s hard to feel much confidence in Sheffield United right now, even though all four of their league wins this season have come in their past 11 matches, dating back to mid-January.
The bad news is, they lost the other seven matches in that stretch, including their latest one — a 2-0 defeat to fellow strugglers Southampton last Saturday.
Sheffield United have scored just 16 goals in 28 matches, four fewer than any other team in the league. They’ve conceded 45, for a goal difference of -29 — only West Brom is worse, at -36.
The underlying numbers are a bit better, but not much so. Sheffield United’s xG differential is -17.7 — third-worst in the league, ahead of only West Brom (-26.8) and Crystal Palace (-20.0).
Betting Analysis & Picks
Leicester City won the first meeting 2-1 back in early December, but they needed a 90-minute winner from Jamie Vardy to do so. Still, they dominated the match statistically. The Foxes had 69% possession, outshot the Blades 13-4, and topped them in terms of xG 1.5 to 0.3.
Sheffield United have scored just one goal in their past five matches combined. And Leicester City don’t look nearly as lethal without Barnes and Maddison. I think Leicester will probably nick it in the end, but my preferred play is the under, which would cost you less.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-129)
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