Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Manchester City vs. Manchester United (Sunday, March 7)
Julian Finney/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City players celebrate a goal.
- The Premier League's top teams square off Sunday in the latest edition of the storied Manchester Derby at Etihad Stadium.
- Manchester United will try to knock off a Manchester City side that has won 21 matches in a row and gone unbeaten in its last 28 games overall.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down this huge showdown and gives his top picks below.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-210|
|Manchester United Odds||+600|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-129 / +104)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Premier League heavyweights rekindle their storied rivalry Sunday when Manchester City hosts bitter foe Manchester United at Etihad Stadium in a battle of the top two clubs in England.
City enters the latest Manchester derby, which dates all the way back to 1891, in the midst of one for the most impressive stretches of play in European history. Manager Pep Guardiola’s side is unbeaten in 28 consecutive matches across all competitions, going an astounding 25-0-3 (W-L-D) during that span.
The Cityzens are in firm control of their destiny in England’s top flight, sitting in first place and looking to go 17 points clear with a victory over the Red Devils.
As for United, it really hasn’t done much wrong in pursuit of a coveted Champions League spot. The Red Devils are unbeaten in 10 consecutive games and have just one loss in their last 16 fixtures overall. United is sitting in second in the league on 51 points, just a point ahead of Leicester City.
Historically, these sides have met 164 times, with United holding a 76-55-53 (W-L-D) advantage over City.
Manager Pep Guardiola has a well-oiled machine running at City, making it hard to find a spot where this outfit might run into a hurdle in both the EPL and Champions League play.
If the Cityzens continue this brilliant run of form, they could very easily go unbeaten the rest of their campaign.
So, what is United actually going up against when it takes the Etihad pitch? Needless to say, it isn’t remotely pretty. Take a look:
- City has won 21 consecutive matches across all competitions.
- The league leader hasn’t lost a match in 3 1/2 months, with that setback coming via a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur back on Nov. 21.
- The Cityzens have only conceded five goals during their current 15-game winning streak in England’s top flight.
- Ten of those 15 victories came via shutout.
- In the 41 matches they’ve played this season, Guardiola’s side has only lost the possession battle on three occasions: 1) Oct. 3 vs. Leeds (52%-48%) in a 1-1 draw; 2) Jan. 3 vs. Chelsea (54%-46%) in a 3-1 victory; and, 3) Feb. 7 vs. Liverpool (56%-44%) in a 4-1 rout of Liverpool.
Statistically, City — as you probably guessed — is the cream of the crop in the advanced metrics. The Cityzens boast an eye-popping 51.6 expected goals and paltry 19.9 expected goals against, resulting in a stellar +31.7 xGDiff and +1.17 xGDiff/90 minutes.
To give you even more perspective on the statistical dominance, Chelsea is the next closest club in terms of xGDiff (+18.0) and a half-goal behind City in xGDiff/90 in the categories.
It’s hard to poke holes in the Red Devils’ performances as of late. Despite recording three consecutive scoreless draws (two in league action) in a row, they’ve found themselves in the thick of things for a European tournament berth next season.
Maybe the biggest thing working in United’s favor entering this affair is its brilliant run of results away from Old Trafford. The Red Devils are unbeaten in 21 consecutive league matches on the road, which has to give them confidence even if when facing a global giant.
Defensively, United has also done a top-notch job on its opponents’ soil, recording five clean sheets in their last seven away league matches. It goes without saying that kind of effort is a must when the Red Devils are about to take on the Cityzens, who have 56 goals in 27 league games and only been shut out three times the entire campaign.
When comparing numbers with City, United has put together some impressive numbers. However, the Red Devils still trail their foes by wide margins. United sits on 42.4 xG and 32.1 xGA, resulting in a solid +10.3 xGDiff and +0.38 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Derbies are always fun when it comes to trying to decipher who’s going to come out on top. Like any rivalry game, you know the underdog is going to show up ready for a fight regardless as to how outmatched it might be.
Unfortunately for United, its opponent is the best team on the planet and nothing is likely going to save the club from the inevitable. In my opinion, City is just too good and talented to run into any issues against its Manchester foe.
For those reasons, I am backing City by a goal at -125 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. Expect Guardiola’s juggernaut to come out in its front foot and put this one away early against an inferior opponent.
I will also take a swing on City posting a shutout in this affair, which would stretch United’s scoring drought to four matches in a row.
Pick: Manchester City -1 (-125) | Both Teams to Score — No (-117)