Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal (Dec. 6)

Spurs vs. Arsenal Odds

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The North London Derby is upon us, and it should set up for a really exciting match come Sunday.

Tottenham Hotspur welcome Arsenal on Sunday, as Spurs look to retake the top spot in the English Premier League. Arsenal, meanwhile, just hope to stop the bleeding from their recent struggles and could really use a positive result.

Rivalry games are always fun, and I am excited for this match.

Spurs

Tottenham entered this weekend of fixtures atop the Premier League. The second season of Jose Mourinho's tenure through his career has always been a successful one, and this campaign for Tottenham looks to be no different.

Comparing this year's Spurs side and last year's, there is really no comparison. This group is far deeper, has much better health and Mourinho clearly has them buying into what he's selling.

Spurs have generated 1.55 non-penalty expected goals per game (NPxG) while only conceding 0.93 NPxGA/game. Both of these are in the top six in the league.

Spurs haven't lost since the opening day of the season but have picked up a few frustrating draws along the way. I would fully expect Mourinho to go for the full three points Sunday, unlike last week at Stamford Bridge.

Spurs have some fitness questions coming into this one. Harry Kane picked up a knock last weekend that kept him out of their Europa League match on Thursday. Mourinho sounded confident he would be able to give it a go, but he might not be 100%.

On top of that, it sounds like it will be Joe Hart in goal instead of captain Hugo Lloris. Hart is a veteran who should be ready for the spotlight, but he didn't look superb in the Europa League draw a few days ago against LASK.

Tottenham's last league match was a scoreless draw with Chelsea last weekend. Chelsea had the better of the chances (xG 0.97-0.23), but it was evident pretty early on that both clubs were pretty content with a point, especially Tottenham.

The difference between that game and this one: Spurs will be at home facing a struggling rival and not a fellow top-four side. An added bonus will be the 2,000 fans in attendance. I expect Mourinho to let his Tottenham team loose on Sunday.

Arsenal

Arsenal started the year on high hopes, with many expecting them to contend for a European place, potentially even the top four. However, the Gunners are in a bit of a free fall at the moment. They are 1-1-4 in their last six league games and have really struggled to create good chances on the attacking end.

Arsenal are creating just 1.04 NPxG per game over their first 10 league fixtures. That's low even compared to a lackluster 2019-2020 season that saw them create 1.28 per game. Conceding 1.36 NPxGA per contest is in the top half of the table, but it is about in-line with last season's 1.34/game. Most would have thought this number could dip a bit while Arsenal's chance creation would improve.

Most of the struggles on the offensive end have to do with the slump that Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang is in. Arsenal's star attacker is generating just 0.19 xG/game and has just two goals (one penalty) this campaign.

I put some of this on manager Mikel Arteta, who sometimes has to change things tactically to get his attackers the ball in better spots. The low xG is partly Aubameyang not creating enough, but it also has to do with the rest of the team not getting him the ball in more advantageous positions. Until Arteta figures out how to fix that, the Gunners will continue to struggle.

The last three league matches have been rough for Arsenal, losing the xG battle in all of them. This is a derby and the Gunners will no doubt be up for this, but I would have little faith Arsenal goes and turns things around at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I have to back Spurs here at a plus-price. They are at the top in the league in terms of quality and form, and Arsenal are limping into this game at best. I expect the Gunners to improve from their current 14th spot in the league, but this is not a get-right spot.

Lloris' absence and Kane not being 100% might be the reason Tottenham drop points here, but I just don't see it. Arsenal lost to a Wolves team that was without Raul Jimenez for most of the game, and they were dominated by Leeds the week before.

I'll put my faith in Jose for the North London Derby.

Pick: Tottenham ML (+104)