Sunday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: West Ham United vs. Wolverhampton Wolves (Sept. 27)

West Ham vs. Wolves Odds

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West Ham United welcome the Wolverhampton Wolves to London Stadium on Sunday for its third game of the Premier League campaign.

The Hammers have picked up two losses and will be looking to secure their first win in this match. On the others side, Wolves looks to bounce back after Monday's hard-fought, 3-1 defeat against Manchester City.

Let's take a look at both clubs entering this contest:

Wolves

Wolverhampton has pretty high expectations this season. It finished just outside the Top 6 last season, losing out to Tottenham Hotspur on goal differential.

The club is led by manager Nuno Espiritu Santo, who is one of the more underrated managers in the league.

Wolves have some fun and talented attackers, as well as a strong defense and a high-quality goalkeeper in Rui Patricio.

So far this season, it has beaten Sheffield United (2-0) and suffered that lost against Manchester City.  Wolves scored twice in the first six minutes against Sheffield, then really just defended most of the game after those early goals.

Manchester City was really on its game Monday and deserved the victory.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

I don’t think it played poorly, though, since the club limited Manchester City to 1.07 xG if you take away De Bruyne’s penalty.

Over its first two games, Wolves have a xG differential of +0.31 after taking that into account. Last season, it generated an xG differential of +0.49/game, relative to its goal differential of +0.29/game.

I’m bullish on Wolves this season and the advanced data backs that up. Wolves have been off since Tuesday, so its should be well rested for the match.

West Ham

The Hammers really struggled last season, finishing 16th in the table. West Ham's main issue was on defense, where it conceded 62 goals on the season.

I think it’s fair to say that staying up in the league this season would be a success and moving toward mid-table is likely West Ham's goal.

However, the Hammers are not off to a good start, losing to Newcastle and Arsenal in their first two matches. The 2-0 score line against Newcastle was harsh, as was the loss to Arsenal. West Ham could have easily picked up a point against the Gunners.

The xG data would back that up. The Hammers have a -3 goal differential so far, but a -0.07 xG differential. The data from 2019-2020 would paint a much different picture, where they generated an xG differential of -0.51/game.

I do give some merit to how they have played the last two matches, but I would put more weight on the last 40 games until we see a larger sample size.

That said, there is a hurdle that West Ham need to overcome for this match. Manager David Moyes will not be on the sideline for this match after testing positive for the coronavirus. This is undoubtedly a negative for the Hammers in a game they really need.

While I do give West Ham credit for playing better its first two matches, I have to side with Wolves here. It has higher-quality finishers, the better manager and shown a more consistent level of play.

West Ham playing without Moyes on the sideline is also a huge blow.

The Hammers have not beaten Wolves in league play since 2011, failing to score in their last four head-to-head matchups. Wolves at plus money seems like great value to me.

Pick: Wolves ML (+105)

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