Southampton vs. Arsenal Tuesday EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Jan. 26)

Southampton vs. Arsenal Tuesday EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Jan. 26) article feature image
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Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Bertrand of Southampton is tackled by Thomas Partey of Arsenal.

  • Southampton and Arsenal meet for the second time in three days after an FA Cup match on Saturday.
  • Arsenal comes into the match hot, while Southampton is starting to regress.
  • Where's the value in this one? Brad Cunningham previews the match and gives his pick below.

Southampton vs. Arsenal Odds

Southampton Odds +225
Arsenal Odds +123
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-107/-117)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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After meeting just three days ago in the FA Cup, Southampton and Arsenal battle again in the Premier League.

Southampton walked away with a 1-0 victory on Saturday in a relatively unexciting fixture, with only 0.58 xG created from open play.

 

Southampton is starting to regress after a torrid start to the season, as they’ve only taken six points from their last six matches. The Saints are also dealing with some injury issues at the moment.

Both starting wing backs Ryan Bertrand and Kyle Walker-Peters, starting central midfielder Oriol Romeu, and starting center back Jannik Vestergaard are going to miss this match. Will they be able to overcome adversity and beat Arsenal for a second time in three days?

The Gunners have rebounded from a terrible run of form in November, as they’ve won four of their last five matches in league play.

During the FA Cup match over the weekend, a lot Arsenal’s main attacking players were rested for most of the match, so they should be able to field their first-choice team.

Arsenal is currently in 11th place and needs this match desperately if they want to have any chance at contending for European football next season.

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Southampton

Regression for the Saints was bound to happen at some point this season. Southampton’s +5 goal differential is severely inflated, as they have a -4.63 expected goal differential on the season.

The main reason for the big discrepancy is due to their incredible good fortune in front of goal. The Saints only have 17.22 xGF on the season, while their actual goal count is 26. In fact, over their last five matches, they’ve only created a total of 2.62 xG.

A lot of that has to do with the 4-4-2 formation they play out of, which is one of the more defensive formations in soccer. Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side likes to high press up the field and have their formation morph into a 4-2-2-2 at times.

It worked tremendously against Arsenal on Saturday, as it is what ultimately led to the Gabriel own goal, which ended up being the deciding factor.

Southampton has been solid at the back in their 4-4-2 this season allowing only 1.25 xG per match. In fact in their last two meetings with Arsenal, they’ve allowed the Gunners to only create a total of 1.44 xG. So, it’s safe to say that Ralph Hasenhuttl’s squad matches up well against Arsenal’s attack.

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Arsenal

Why have the Gunners seemingly turned a corner the last five matches? It’s not that they are creating more chances in front of net, it’s that they are creating higher-quality chances.

Arsenal is averaging 1.99 xGF over their last five matches, compared to 1.11 xG in their first 14 matches of the season.

The biggest difference has been their young sensations Bukayo Saka & Emile Smith Rowe who have been creating chances left and right. Mikel Arteta gave Smith Rowe his first Premier League start against Chelsea and ever since the Gunners have looked like a completely different squad.

Over the last five matches, two academy products have combined for three goals and four assists, including this nice goal against Newcastle last Monday.

Another aspect not being talked about enough with the Gunners is their defense this year. Arsenal is fifth in the Premier League in xGA at 1.12 per match and has given up only 0.71 xG over their last four matches.

They allowed the Saints to create only 0.19 xG from open play on Saturday, so will they be able to shut them down again on Tuesday?

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Even with Southampton’s injuries at the back, I think this is going to be another tight affair like we saw on Saturday. The Saints are likely going to sit back to help out some of the new faces in their back line.

I only have 2.29 goals projected for this match, so I am going to back Under 2.5 goals at -117 odds.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-117)

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