West Bromwich Albion vs. Manchester City EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Cityzens Should Coast (Jan. 26)
Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Ilkay Guendogan
- Manchester City is set to take on West Brom Albion in a Premier League fixture on Tuesday afternoon.
- The Cityzens are without star midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, who is out with an injury.
- But will it matter? Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the Tuesday afternoon match below.
West Brom vs. Manchester City Odds
|West Brom Odds||+1500|
|Manchester City Odds||-560|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3:15 p.m. ET|
Odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Monday and via DraftKings.
Manchester City can move to the top of the Premier League table on Tuesday as the Cityzens travel to the West Midlands to take on 19th-place West Brom. Manchester City is the league’s best team on form, but will be without star midfielder Kevin De Bruyne due to injury.
Even though they’re not in last place, the Baggies have been the worst team in the Premier League this season by just about every underlying metric. West Brom is worst in expected goals and worst in expected goals against by more than 0.33 goals per match. The Baggies’ 11 total points are actually more than they really should have (9) when you look at their expected points on Understat.
Last time these two teams met, goalkeeper Sam Johnstone and poor finishing from City is the only reason the match wasn’t a total rout. The Baggies are the last team to take points off Man City, but they were beaten on xG 2.59-0.21. West Brom’s only goal came from a fluke own goal and City are in even better attacking form since that match.
West Brom’s xG difference per 90 is the worst not just this season, but of any PL team in the last six years.
Manchester City’s title hopes were dealt a blow when De Bruyne was announced out for at least the next handful of weeks. He’s averaging 0.96 xG + xA per 90 this season, but City has the return of Gabriel Jesus to look forward to. People will mock his poor finishing — for good reason, he’s a career xG underperformer — but the City attack is much more potent when it can play with a recognized striker. The Cityzens can turn to emerging star Phil Foden and in-form fullback João Cancelo to replace the creative production lost from De Bruyne.
While their shot totals and xGF numbers had dipped significantly in the opening eight matches of the season, they’ve bounced back to normal in recent weeks.
City’s last 10 matches: (league rank)
xG per 90: 2.41 (1st)
xGA per 90: 0.38 (1st)
Betting Analysis & Picks
My full-strength projections for this match are Manchester City 3.01, West Brom 0.46. Even when taking off for Manchester City’s loss of De Bruyne, the return of Jesus up top should be able to make up for the lost production. City rotated their team in the FA Cup at the weekend, so a regular lineup from the Cityzens should result in an easy victory.
Pick: Man City -2 (-120 or better)