USA vs Mexico Odds, Predictions, Picks, Best Bet | Expert Match Preview

USA vs Mexico Odds

Regional powers United States and Mexico will meet again on Sunday night in the 2023-2024 Concacaf Nations League final in North Texas.

United States are the only nation to win the competition since it was launched with the 2019-2020 edition.

But this go around, they nearly suffered an embarrassing semifinal defeat, requiring a stoppage-time own-goal and two from Haji Wright in extra time to earn a 3-1 victory over a depleted Jamaica side.

This is only Mexico’s second appearance in the final, having lost 3-2 to the United States in an exciting contest that required extra time back in the first edition of the competition. El Tri made relatively easy work of their semifinal, scoring twice before halftime in a 3-0 victory over Panama.

The USMNT are unbeaten in their six against Mexico between competitive fixtures and friendlies, tied for the longest such streak in program history.

USA vs Mexico Picks, Prediction, Best Bet

Pick: USA Team Total Over 1.5 (+155 via DraftKings)

USA

With most of Jamaica’s Premier League stars out of the Reggae Boyz’ lineup, the United States still struggled immensely to create chances after conceding literally in the first minute.

And it took Jamaica forward Cory Burke heading the ball into his own net while trying to clear a corner in the 96th minute to save manager Gregg Berhalter’s men.

From there, Gio Reyna set up Wright for two goals in the extra session as the Reggae Boyz ran out of gas.

For better or worse, we’ve seen the Americans struggle in these kinds of CONCACAF games before — several times in World Cup qualifying on the road, as well as in group play at the CONCACAF Gold Cup.

And the omission of stars like Leon Bailey and Demarai Gray probably overshadows the fact that the remaining talent on Jamaica’s roster still plays professionally at a high level — largely in England’s second and third tier or in MLS.

But the good news for the States is there usually isn’t a carryover to the next game after laying an egg. And in some ways, facing a Mexico team that is far more likely to want possession will suit this American team better than a defensive-minded opponent that came out in a 5-4-1 and scored an early goal.

Berhalter’s biggest decision will be whether to start Wright and Reyna after their heroics off the bench.

The latter is a question of fitness more than quality. Reyna has barely seen the field for Nottingham Forest since his mid-season loan from Dortmund, and his 75 minutes as a halftime sub is his most extended run in any game this season.

Putting him in the XI 72 hours later could be considered risky even though Reyna isn’t dealing with a recent injury.

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Mexico

The 2022 World Cup cycle was one of transition and frustration for Mexico, who failed to advance beyond the group stage of the World Cup for the first time since they ere ineligible for the 1990 tournament.

But there has been a renewed sense of confidence and optimism around the program since former El Tri player Jaime Lozano assumed the managerial reins after a disastrous short spell from Diego Cocca.

Lozano guided Mexico to their record 9th CONCACAF Gold Cup title last summer — albeit while the United States decided to play a mostly domestically-based roster during the tournament.

Things have gotten more hairy since, with El Tri requiring penalties to get past Honduras in the Nations League quarterfinals after playing to a 2-2 draw.

But there is a sense that at least the identity of the team’s style and tactics — considerably more attack-minded than under Tata Martino — is more familiar for the program’s enormous and widespread fanbase.

Colombian-born Julian Quinones — one of the stars at perennial Liga MX power Club America — scored his first senior international goal in the Panama victory in just his third El Tri appearance after he was naturalized as a Mexican citizen last year. West Ham’s Edson Alvarez also scored on a header and played further forward for Lozano than he does in David Moyes’ central midfield.

USA vs Mexico Prediction

By its very nature, there is a lot of variance in international play. But there are two relatively established trends involving these teams under their current managers.

The response has generally been strong from Berhalter’s teams in games after a poor performance. And Lozano’s squad concedes a lot of goals when playing mid- or upper-level opposition.

While it has come mostly in friendlies, here are teams which Mexico has conceded multiple goals to in the last calendar year: Australia, Uzbekistan, Honduras (away), Germany and Colombia.

The Americans have also scored two or more goals in 90 minutes in three of their last six matches against Mexico, which is actually a better percentage than their 90-minute win rate against El Tri in those games. And for the record, all three of those performances came in competitive fixtures.

When the U.S. has been on the higher end of one of its talent cycles, these games have skewed toward more goals than you’d expect for an international derby, perhaps in part because Mexico’s ball-dominant DNA mixed with the USA’s skill of countering at speed is a recipe for chance creation.

I’ll be playing the Americans to score at least two at +155 odds and an implied 39.2% probability. That’s better value than the U.S. moneyline in my view, given there is a decent history of the U.S. scoring twice in this fixture and not winning. Playing the straight over at plus money here may not be a bad idea either.

Pick: USA Team Total Over 1.5 (+155 via DraftKings)