Wednesday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sampdoria vs. Inter Milan (Jan. 6)
Mattia Ozbot/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Inter Milan standout Lautaro Martinez.
- Inter Milan journeys to northwest Italy on Wednesday to face Sampdoria in a Serie A showdown.
- Can the Nerazzurri make it nine wins in a row? Jeremy Pond thinks so and explains why below.
Sampdoria vs. Inter Milan Odds
|Sampdoria Odds||+480 [BET NOW]|
|Inter Milan Odds||-180 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+320 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-157/+125) [BET NOW]|
|Time||9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Plenty is on the line Wednesday when juggernaut Inter Milan takes its winning streak to northwest Italy to face Sampdoria in a midweek Serie A showdown.
The visiting Nerazzurri have been on fire as of late, winning eight consecutive league contests. Most recently, Inter Milan rolled to a 6-2 blowout victory over last-place Crotone. Lautaro Martinez recorded a hat trick for the winners.
On the other side, Sampdoria suffered a disappointing 1-0 loss to powerhouse Roma in its last outing. Picking up no points in that fixture, I Blucerchiati finds itself in 11th place on 17 points in Italy’s top flight.
Let’s take a look at what might be in store for these sides in this contest.
Manager Claudio Ranieri, who led Leicester City to that unfathomable Premier League title during the 2015-16 campaign, is looking to get his side back in the win column after suffering two consecutive defeats.
Even more frustrating for the Sampdoria gaffer is the fact five of his club’s last six losses have been one-goal affairs. Captain Fabio Quagliarella continues to lead the line for I Blucerchiati, scoring a team-best seven goals in league play.
If you look at Sampdoria’s overall statistics, its numbers put them right where it should be on the table. This middle-of-the-pack side sits on a subpar 17.4 expected goals and lackluster 24.5 expected goals against, generating an underwhelming -7.1 xGDiff and -0.48 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Bottom line, Sampdoria’s latter two figures must improve if it’s going to put up any serious challenge to finish in the top 10 at the season’s conclusion.
Life could not be any better for the Nerazzurri at this point of their campaign. Antonio Conte has Inter Milan firing on all cylinders, with the club winners of eight on the bounce.
A win over Sampdoria combined with an AC Milan draw or loss would put it into the top spot on the table through 16 fixtures. That could very well happen, due to the fact the Rossoneri have a much more difficult task at hand later in the day when they face Juventus at San Siro Stadium.
Yet despite all the positivity around Inter Milan, it will likely be without striker Romelu Lukaku. The Belgian international picked up a knock in the rout of Crotone, which should lead to his absence. Lukaku has been huge for Inter Milan, racking up 12 goals that have him in the thick of the Golden Boot race.
When comparing the advanced metrics with Sampdoria, you probably guessed the results. Inter Milan is the better outfit in all major categories.
The Nerazzurri have brilliant 32.4 expected goals and 19.4 expected goals against, resulting in a whopping +13.0 xGDiff and +0.87 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Inter Milan’s xGF, which is good enough for a second-place tie with AC Milan, only trails league-leader Roma (33.2 xG) in the standings.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This is another one of those matches where you should not look past the obvious. Inter Milan is far and away the better side, with oddsmakers reflecting that in the numbers.
That said, I am backing the Nerazzurri on the moneyline to bag all three points. If you don’t prefer jumping on a favorite this large, you could take the chance in getting a slightly better number with a live wager. However, I wouldn’t let it slip past -140 if that’s the route you chose to go.
I will also play the total going over the number as well. Here’s why:
- There have been at least three goals in six of the last seven meetings between these sides across all competitions.
- Matches featuring Inter Milan have seen the total hit at least three goals in seven of its last eight league fixtures.
And the biggest angle giving me the most confidence in this wager?
- There have been more than 2.5 goals in 14 (yes, 14) of Sampdoria’s last 15 league matches at the Marassi.
Bottom line, jump on both of these plays and enjoy the contest.
Picks: Inter Milan ML (-180) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-157)