Tuesday’s World Cup Action: Sharp Bettors Eyeing Low Totals

Jun 19, 2018 8:42 PM EDT

In Tuesday’s World Cup action, Group H finally gets underway with Colombia taking on Japan and Poland taking on Senegal, while Group A begins its second round of matches with Russia hosting Egypt.

 

Here’s a breakdown of the market for each game and which teams the sharps/public are betting.

Colombia vs. Japan, Group H

8 a.m. ET

Group H is the tightest in terms of the odds, and Colombia opened as small -122 favorites in the opening game against Japan. Behind nearly 70% of tickets, they’ve increased to -130, giving them roughly a 56.2% chance of victory.

Despite the majority of tickets on the Over, there’s been considerable action on the Under, moving the total from 2.25 to 2. Sharp bettors are expecting a 1-0, 1-1, or 2-0 result.

Poland vs. Senegal, Group H

11 a.m. ET

Poland opened as the slight “favorites” with +132 odds, and after six months of lines fluctuating, they’re currently sitting at +133. They did reach as high as +150, but that didn’t last too long. The Europeans have received a steady flow of tickets (68%) and are a very trendy pick (similar to Sweden), so public bettors have certainly staked their claim.

It wouldn’t be a shock at all to see Senegal or Japan advance from this group, but they’ll need a strong start against Poland and Colombia, respectively.

The total has dropped back down from 2.25 to 2, where it opened, but unsurprisingly public bettors are still on the over.

Egypt vs. Russia, Group A

2 p.m. ET

The last match on Tuesday afternoon features host Russia taking on Egypt. The Pharaohs need a draw/win vs. Russia to have a chance of advancing after losing, 1-0, to Uruguay, while the Russians crushed Saudi Arabia 5-0 in the opener.

There’s reason to believe in Egypt, though: Mo Salah (shoulder) is likely to start and bettors are behind them. They’re receiving 36% of tickets and currently stand at +324 on the moneyline.

Since opening, Russia’s odds have moved from -113 to +118, a -7% change in implied win probability. A loss by Russia would definitely open things up for Egypt to advance and for Uruguay to win the group.

The total currently sits at just 2 goals, and juice has trended toward the under (was +106, now -106).

Credit:

Twitter @Pharaohs. Pictured: Egypt National Team

Follow Dan McGuire on Twitter
@ArsenalDMC

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