Young Boys vs. Manchester United Odds, Picks, Prediction: How to Play Underdog Swiss Side in Champions League Battle
Clive Brunskill/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo (right).
- Manchester United opens Champions League play Tuesday with a visit from Young Boys.
- The underdog Swiss side has gotten off to a slow start, while the Red Devils have found their form.
- Matthew Trebby breaks down the match below and has found some betting value on Young Boys in this match.
Young Boys vs. Man UOdds
|Young Boys Odds||+650|
|Man United Odds||-270|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +140)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 12:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+ | UniMás | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Star-studded Manchester United make the trip to Switzerland for their Champions League opener on Tuesday against Young Boys.
The four-time-reigning Swiss Super League champions are not off to a great start this season under German-American manager David Wagner, who you might remember as the coach of the Huddersfield Town side that was relegated a few years ago. Wagner is replacing Gerardo Seoane, who took over at Bayer Leverkusen.
United, meanwhile, are on cloud nine right now. The Red Devils just got Cristiano Ronaldo back, he scored twice in EPL player this weekend, and it sounds like a contract extension for Paul Pogba is looking likely. Things on the red side of Manchester are looking very, very good.
Let’s break down the matchup to find betting value.
Young Boys Starting Season Slow
Young Boys ran away with the Swiss Super League last season, finishing with 84 points from 36 games and 31 points above second-place Basel.
A trio of attackers stand out for Wagner’s team, one of which American fans will be familiar with.
Last season, Jordan Siebatcheu turned a loan from Rennes into a breakout season at the international level, and one that rejuvenated his club career. Siebatcheu had 12 goals and four assists last season for the Swiss champions, making his way into the United States national team setup. He spent two seasons floundering at Rennes, and his move to the Bern-based side was made permanent over the summer.
Siebatcheu will have even more on his plate since Young Boys will be without star forward Jean-Pierre Nsame, who has scored 51 goals over the past two Swiss Super League campaigns. It didn’t seem to bother Young Boys over the weekend, when they dominated top-of-the-league Zurich 4-0 at home without him. It was a dominant performance, as they doubled Zurich’s shots (26-13) and won the battle for expected goals (xG) handily, 3.96-0.71.
Still, Young Boys are just 2-2-1 (wins-draws-losses) to start the league season, a far cry from their form of recent years.
Young Boys had to qualify for the Champions League, doing so with a pair of 3-2 wins over Hungarian side Ferencvaros.
Manchester United Showing Quality on Attack
The Red Devils are atop the Premier League with some very puzzling metrics through four matches.
United have scored 11 goals, all from open play and putting their immense quality on display. Those 11 goals have come from just 4.75 xG, which usually indicates some good fortune in fantastic finishing. That definitely is the case for United but unlike most sides, I don’t see a huge amount of regression because they do in fact have the quality to finish.
Bruno Fernandes has four goals on just 1.13 xG, while Mason Greenwood has three from 1.07.
While those numbers seem potentially unsustainable, the Red Devils’ chance creation is also likely to increase, especially with Ronaldo in the fold. They created just 2.77 xG against Newcastle en route to a four-goal performance, which is better compared to some of their earlier outings in the Premier League.
All six of United’s Champions League group-stage matches saw at least three goals scored last season, with four seeing at least four goals tallied and three matches with five. The defense should be shored up a bit with Raphael Varane, although there could be some rotation around the back four.
I’d expect rotation around the United lineup, but it’s more than reasonable to think Ronaldo will start. He left Portugal early during the international break to make sure he was ready to play with United, so he’s more than fresh and will no doubt want to play every game possible.
Betting Analysis & Pick
It’s no doubt going to be an electric atmosphere in Bern, which has been waiting for big-time Champions League nights like this for a long time.
United’s two league matches away from home this season have been anything but convincing — a 1-1 draw with Southampton and a 1-0 win over Wolves that saw them score late and lose the xG battle 2.25-0.58.
It’s obviously very tough to compare the two teams but given Young Boys’ domestic pedigree and what should be a big home-field advantage, as well as United’s Champions League failure last season, I’ve found a way to back the Swiss champions.
I don’t love United’s chance-creation numbers, and the lack of goals in two away fixtures doesn’t inspire great confidence. Part of me really likes taking Young Boys +0.5 at +230 on DraftKings, but I think the Swiss champs will hold their own in the first half, enough to be in position for a result.
In four Premier League matches this season, United have scored twice in the first half. The second of those goals was a Ronaldo tap-in over the weekend with the last kick of the ball, nearly two minutes into stoppage time.
On PointsBet, you can get Young Boys +0.5 in the first half. United might pull away late, but they have given me no indication so far this season that they’re capable of putting the game out of reach in an atmosphere like this against a quality team.
Pick: Young Boys 1H +0.5 (-105)