ATP Cordoba is off to an amazing start and the fun continues on Thursday.
I’ve found value on two incredible matches on Thursday’s order of play for us to exploit, including Ramos-Vinolas vs. Lajovic and Schwartzman vs. Cerundolo.
Read on for my ATP picks and predictions!
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Cordoba Odds, Picks
Albert Ramos-Vinolas (-145) vs. Dusan Lajovic (+114)
1:30 p.m. ET
Albert Ramos-Vinolas has gone 0-4 to start 2023, including a 6-7(2), 5-7, 6-3, 3-6 loss to Maxime Cressy at the Australian Open. Ramos-Vinolas played fairly well, winning 72% of his service points and hitting 33 winners versus 20 unforced errors. But, the Spaniard struggled to return Cressy’s huge serve, winning just 16% of his return points and breaking once.
On clay, expect Ramos-Vinolas to be much improved. He is 583-386 on the dirt in his career and went 21-15 last season on clay. The Spaniard uses his lefty forehand to dictate play. He plays with controlled aggression, hides his weaker backhand well and gets consistent depth on his groundstrokes. In addition, Ramos-Vinolas is very fit.
Dusan Lajovic defeated Juan Pablo Varillas 7-6(3), 6-3 to kick off his Cordoba campaign. Despite winning just 45% of his second serves, Lajovic did win 69% of his first-serve points. Lajovic was all over Varillas’ second serve, winning 59% of his second-serve returns and breaking on three occasions.
Lajovic is 350-218 on clay as a professional and he went 24-15 on the dirt last year. As the Serbian showcased against Varillas, he is a crafty baseliner, staying consistent while utilizing his variety and placement to keep his opponents off-balance.
He can also effectively play offense with his forehand. However, his backhand is a liability and his court positioning is often poor.
Ramos’ cross-court lefty forehand into Lajovic’s weaker backhand will give the Spaniard an edge.
He will use that forehand to control the baseline and keep Lajovic in defensive positions, unable to effectively attack. The veteran Spaniard will also not be thrown off by Lajovic’s off-pace shots, as Varillas was.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Ramos’ overall Elo is 51 points above Lajovic’s and his clay-court Elo is 53.5 points higher than the Serbian’s.
Pick: Ramos-Vinolas -1.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Diego Schwartzman (-130) vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo (+102)
6 p.m. ET
Diego Schwartzman has gone just 1-2 so far in 2023. Most recently at the Australian Open, Schwartzman lost 1-6, 4-6, 4-6 to JJ Wolf in the second round.
Schwartzman won just 60% of his service points and was broken on four occasions. In the past 52 weeks, Schwartzman is third on the ATP Tour for percentage of return games won and tied for second for percentage of first-serve returns won, so it was shocking to see him win just 22% of his return points.
While Schwartzman went just 31-25 last year, the Argentine did go 21-10 on clay. Schwartzman has excellent foot speed, so the clay gives him extra time to track balls down and neutralizes his opponents’ power. Schwartzman plays with consistent depth and his backhand is a strength, although he’s inconsistent with his forehand.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo defeated Pablo Andujar 6-4, 1-0* (ret.) in the first round of Cordoba. He won 57% of his return points and broke twice in four return games. Cerundolo struggled on his own serve, however, winning just 55% of his first serves and getting broken twice. The Argentine looked underpowered and off during the match.
He is already 13-1 on the season – all on clay – and almost exclusively at the Challenger level. Cerundolo has already won two clay-court Challenger titles this season, using his heavy lefty forehand to manipulate the ball around the court.
Cerundolo’s placement is world-class and he’s incredible at using his variety to throw his opponents off-balance. However, he’s a bit underpowered, his first serve is mediocre and he lacked depth against Andujar.
His cross-court lefty forehand will be going into Schwartzman’s strength here. The veteran should be able to control the baseline, especially if Cerundolo continues to leave his groundstrokes short. Schwartzman’s speed will also effectively counter Cerundolo’s placement and variety.
In addition, Cerundolo was a little more erratic than usual against the Spaniard. If Cerundolo brings that level into this match, Schwartzman will take advantage.
When looking at Elo ratings, Schwartzman’s overall Elo is 53.3 points above Cerundolo’s and his clay-court Elo is 78.4 points higher.
Pick: Schwartzman ML (-130 via PointsBet)
