Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie battle in the Wimbledon Quarterfinal on Tuesday, July 8. The match will tentatively start at 9:40 a.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN and ESPN+.
Find my Wimbledon quarterfinal betting preview and Alcaraz vs Norrie prediction for Tuesday below.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Prediction
- Alcaraz vs Norrie Pick: Over 32.5 (-110 to -125)
My Alcaraz vs Norrie best bet is the game total to go over 32.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.
Alcaraz vs Norrie Odds
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | -2000 |
| Cameron Norrie Odds | +1100 |
| Over/Under | 32.5 (-110o / -120u) |
| Alcaraz-Norrie H2H | 4-2 |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 9:40 am ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Kenny Ducey's Alcaraz vs Norrie Preview, Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview
It hasn't exactly been a ho-hum showing at Wimbledon for Carlos Alcaraz, but it's been good enough to make it back to the quarterfinal stage for a third year in a row.
The two-time defending champion hasn't had the easiest draw in the world, surviving an energized Fabio Fognini in the first round and an improving Andrey Rublev in the fourth round, so perhaps we're being a little too critical of Alcaraz dropping four sets through four matches.
With that being said, the improved serve which jettisoned Alcaraz to new heights earlier this year simply hasn't dazzled like it once did. He's landed just 61% of his first serves at Wimbledon, and while he's been able to win 73% of points behind them, the drop in serving percentage from 72% over the course of the season is cause for concern.
Still, Alcaraz was never a serve-first player — and he won two straight Wimbledon titles with that aspect of his came being a slight weak spot — so it's not as if we can write him off.
There are simply some cracks presenting themselves in his game right now, and with the business end of this tournament upon us it's about time he changed the narrative.
Cameron Norrie Betting Preview
It's been a long road back to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon for Norrie, who took a set off Novak Djokovic in the 2022 semis and hasn't made it past the third round since.
The 29-year-old was a top-10 player once upon a time, capturing a Masters 1000 tournament years ago, but the last year and half have been trying as he's searched for his level and his confidence.
Norrie has been something of a revelation this week, going toe-to-toe with two massive hitters in Frances Tiafoe and Nicolas Jarry and living to tell the tale. The Brit almost managed to outserve the serve-first Jarry, winning 75% of points behind his first serve to the Chilean's 79%, and in landing 68% he continued on with a very encouraging trend.
Norrie's serve is already difficult to return in nature as a lefty, but now we're seeing just how effective it can be. He's landed 69% of his first serves now — far more than Alcaraz can lay claim to — and he's won 72% of points behind it which is roughly equivalent to what we've seen from his opponent on Tuesday.
Together with an excellent 89% hold rate, and a much stronger break rate, he's looking like a potential pest for the World No. 2.
Alcaraz vs Norrie Predictions, Betting Analysis
These two have played four epic matches in a row since the 2022 clay swing, and while Norrie has managed to take two, he's come very close to pushing for more.
Norrie took Alcaraz to a third set on a fast clay court in Madrid, and rallied back in the second set in Buenos Aires in his other loss to nearly push that one three.
Most importantly in this case: One of Norrie's wins came in Cincinnati two years ago, which is the only time in the last three years they've met on a court that's nearly as quick as the one they'll step onto Tuesday.
The Brit possesses a great two-handed backhand that stays low and skids through the court, and he's been incredible both on return and on serve. As a lefty, too, he can keep the ball away from Alcaraz's devastating forehand, which should mean the Spaniard will need to problem-solve on the fly and come up with a winning gameplan in a critical match.
While I like the set spread with Norrie — set at even money — the Over is the best play on this one.
There's very little here between the two judging by the recent head-to-head, and with the way Norrie is serving I'm not convinced Alcaraz will break enough times to keep this one a neat-and-tidy three-set win.
In fact, I'm not even sure he's the far greater player in this matchup as the numbers would indicate.
Norrie's had the harder road thus far, which is what makes his numbers that much more eye-catching.
Pick: Over 32.5 (-110 to -125)
