After defeating Grigor Dimitrov in five sets, Arthur Fery has become the first wild card to reach the Wimbledon quarterfinals since 2014.
Now the Brit has to face French Open finalist Flavio Cobolli, who actually lost to Fery in straight sets in the first round of the Australian Open earlier this year.
Find my Wimbledon preview and Fery vs Cobolli prediction for Wednesday below.
Arthur Fery vs Flavio Cobolli Player Prediction
- Fery vs Cobolli Pick: Flavio Cobolli -4.5
My Fery vs Cobolli best bet is on Cobolli to cover the -4.5 game spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.
Fery vs Cobolli Odds
| Arthur Fery Odds | +226 |
| Flavio Cobolli Odds | -286 |
| Spread | Fery +4.5 (-135), Cobolli -4.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | 38.5 (-120o / -125u) |
| Fery-Cobolli H2H | 1-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Wednesday, Approx. 10 a.m. ET | ESPN Unlmtd |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Fery vs Cobolli Predictions, Betting Analysis
By: Chris Gimino
It's been a magical run at the All England Club for the hometown talent Fery, but his lack of experience in Grand Slams is bound to become an issue the deeper we get into this tournament.
And I think this is the spot where his opponent holds a huge advantage.
Even though Cobolli lost in straight sets to Fery in Melbourne, things have changed for both parties since January.
Cobolli reached the French Open final earlier this season, and while Fery's success at Wimbledon has been surprising, his draw hasn't exactly been the stiffest, and he's played two straight five-set matches.
My tennis model is holding a B grade and a 5% edge on Cobolli covering the -4.5 game spread, punching his revenge for the early-season defeat on the hard courts Down Under.
By the way, here's what I'm trying to accomplish with my model and how it generates these edges:
For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).
Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.
Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.
From there, the same win probability gets used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing what the model thinks against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.
Sample size matters throughout: thin data — a new player, an early-season surface, a small odds sample — gets a real statistical haircut rather than being trusted at face value, which is why some big-looking numbers still grade low.
And with this matchup in particular, here's the chart and overall analytics between the two opponents:
Ultimately, I'm expecting Cobolli to win this match in three sets, covering the game spread in the process.
Pick: Flavio Cobolli -4.5 Game Spread
