Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Prediction, Pick, Odds for French Open Third Round

We're in for a thrilling matchup on Friday to kick off the third round at Roland Garros as Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul prepare to duke it out.

In a shocking series of events on Thursday morning, 24-year-old Juan Manuel Cerundolo shocked the world, taking down Jannik Sinner after trailing by two sets and a double break. Sinner entered the French Open as an overwhelming -350 favorite, and his departure means this matchup is now far more significant.

Find my French Open preview and Ruud vs Paul prediction for Friday below.

Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Player Prediction

• Ruud vs Paul Pick: Casper Ruud ML -260 Parlayed With Alt Over 33.5 Games

My Ruud vs Paul best bet is on this parlay consisting of Ruud winning straight up. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live French Open odds page.

Ruud vs Paul Odds

Ruud vs Paul Preview, Prediction

By: Tudor Cosma

Casper Ruud Betting Preview

After dispatching his first two opponents in Paris quite comfortably, Ruud will take a big leap in competition in Round 3.

With both Carlos Alcaracz and Sinner out of the picture, the 27-year-old Norwegian may have his best opportunity yet to finally win the ever-so evasive first Grand Slam title.

Ruud is a two-time runner-up at Roland Garros; he was defeated in the final in both 2022 and 2023 to two of the best players of all time in Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, respectively.

While Ruud is unbelievably versatile (he also made a US Open final), his preferred surface is clay. Ruud has won an impressive 12 ATP Tour singles titles on the surface — one of which was a Masters 1000 championship.

In 2024, Ruud continued his dominance in Paris with a semifinals appearance, resulting in a defeat to Alexander Zverev in a close four sets. Ruud was eliminated in the third round in 2025 after entering the tournament with an undisclosed injury.

Ruud has an effective forehand that generates massive spin on his returns, with his opponents very often struggling with the backspin he generates. Many have compared his high-revolution groundstrokes to that of Nadal.

Ruud boasts impressive athleticism that allows him to effortlessly slide across the baseline and quickly change direction with an uncanny ability to return shots all over the court. That makes it rather difficult for his opponents to hit winners.

The 27-year-old thrives in long rallies and is very comfortable grinding out points, merely waiting for his opponent to commit unforced errors. Ruud's tactical approach and world-class footwork make him one of the best players in the world on red clay.

Tommy Paul Betting Preview

While initially joining the ATP Tour with very minimal experience on clay — considering it's the most rare of the four surfaces played in the United States — Paul has made tremendous strides in his game on this surface.

Upon failing to reach the third round in Paris over his first seven appearances at Roland Garros, the 29-year-old American is coming off his best French Open result yet (quarterfinals in 2025).

Paul entered this tournament with a ton of confidence in the improvements he's made to his game on clay, with a 15-4 overall record on the season while winning his first title on clay courts in Houston.

While Paul relies on an elite serve and power-forehand — both of which have turned him into a top hard-court player in the world — his style-of-play on clay mirrors that of Ruud's very closely.

Like Ruud, Paul’s athleticism and quickness have turned him into an elite all-court player with tremendous coverage and a stellar baseline skillset.

Though Ruud typically favors longer rallies — especially in regard to his baseline coverage — Paul is more of a counter-puncher with a very unique, zippy power forehand that generates a ton of top-spin on his groundstrokes.

Ruud vs Paul Predictions, Betting Analysis

Now that the French Open’s ATP draw is wide open following Sinner’s upset loss, this matchup sets up to be one of the best of the entire tournament thus far.

While Ruud and Paul have relatively contrasting styles on other surfaces like hard courts and grass, the reduced court speed on red clay has resulted in the two having very similar styles of play given the skillset required to find success in Paris.

Both players boast exceptional athleticism and elite all-court coverage, which has given them the ability to thrive on the baseline.

Ruud’s heavy top-spin groundstrokes and ability to dictate long rallies from behind the baseline has resulted in him being one of the best clay-court players on the planet.

Though Paul’s success at the French Open has been stagnant (far less experience on the red dirt compared to Ruud), he's done a magnificent job implementing his power-forehand and heavy ground strokes to his skillset.

The difference-maker will be how Paul’s more aggressive counter-striking style will fare when facing a player who can match the American’s agility and comfortability dictating rallies from behind the baseline.

Paul’s path to victory will lie in his ability to shorten points and not play into Ruud's comfortability, extending rallies far behind the baseline.

On the other hand, Ruud’s response to the American’s unique forehand and backhand return-game will determine how the Norwegian can stick to his tactical approach.

While there's no doubt about the tremendous strides Paul has made toward strengthening his clay-court prowess, I worry about his ability to disrupt Ruud's rhythm.

Paul’s typical advantage athletically will be diminished versus Ruud, and I think his aggressiveness could actually backfire versus the Norwegian’s calm demeanor in long rallies and elite court-coverage.

I think Ruud's comfortability in these conditions and his ability to match Paul’s athleticism will result in the Norwegian holding several advantages, and thus advancing to the fourth round in what should be a very closely contested clash.

Ruud is a sizable -275 favorite, though, so I'll be looking to take a different approach to extract max value.

I'll be playing a two-leg “same-game-parlay” (SGP) on Ruud to win and also for there to be over 33.5 total games in the match.

Pick: Casper Ruud ML -260 Parlayed With Alt Over 33.5 Games