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2021 French Open Odds & Quarterfinal Prediction For Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev

2021 French Open Odds & Quarterfinal Prediction For Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev article feature image

Aurelien Morissard/Xinhua via Getty Images. Pictured: Daniil Medvedev.

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas looks to continue his stellar runs of form in Tuesday's French Open quarterfinal matchup against Daniil Medvedev.
  • Tsitspas has lost six of seven career matches against Medvedev, although the Russian is usually shaky playing on the clay.
  • Tennis betting analyst Kenny Ducey breaks down this intriguing matchup and delivers his best bet below.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds

Tsitsipas Odds -230
Medvedev Odds +180
Over/Under 37.5
Time Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings

Daniil Medvedev has been the talk of the tournament, entering an event at which he’d never won a match and ripping through three players in fantastic form on the clay. His play on the surface has improved without a doubt, but this will be his toughest challenge yet.

Can the Russian continue his rapid improvement on red clay and take down the odds-on favorite to reach the final? Let’s break down the matchup below.

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Full Review


Stefanos Tsitsipas

By now, you’ve heard about Tsitsipas’ incredible year.

The 2020 Roland Garros semifinalist and World No. 5 has had arguably the best year on tour, going to the semis at the Australian Open, falling in two finals to Alex Zverev and Rafael Nadal, and capturing two titles including a Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo. He’s got the second-most main-draw wins on clay, going 20-3 on the surface this year and establishing himself as the second-best clay player on tour.

There was much debate as to which “Next Gen” player would be the first to capture a title, but the Greek has done much to squash that debate. He’s made back-to-back Grand Slam semifinals, and appears poised to capture one of the year’s four majors as soon as Nadal or Novak Djokovic would like to abdicate the throne.

The only man that could possibly stand in his way is Daniil Medvedev, who has proved to be his kryptonite. The Greek has plenty of variety and feel to compete with Medvedev, who is most comfortable beyond the baseline, but he’s yet to really break through the Russian with just a 1-6 lifetime record. What’s more, that one win came at the ATP Finals, where results don’t hold much weight, and they especially didn’t in 2019 when Medvedev was absolutely gassed after a legendary summer.

Tsitsipas will hope that hard work on this surface and his ever-improving game will be good enough to get him through this time, but sometimes players just dominate matchups like this for years upon years.

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Daniil Medvedev

It’s hard not to be in love with Medvedev’s game at the moment. Entering Roland Garros, the Russian was in a years-long slump on clay and hadn’t won a single match at this event. Despite a game built for faster surfaces and self-admitted doubts about playing on clay, Medvedev has been nothing short of dominant over the past week, taking full advantage of a lighter tennis ball and quicker surfaces in France.

The Russian is hitting with incredible depth, and has torn through some great competition. He didn’t have to play much tennis against Alexander Bublik, who shortened almost every point, but he broke the big serve of an in-form Reilly Opelka with relative ease and disposed of a promising clay court talent in Cristian Garin quite simply. He’s been holding serve in short order, and his deep returning position has really been working out.

On paper, no one can stop the Russian except for himself.

Medvedev’s mental fortitude will be the key to this match. He will start off on a good foot having taken six of seven matches against Tsitsipas, including one on the clay in Monte Carlo in 2019, and he will come in brimming with confidence. As we’ve seen in Grand Slam finals and some late-stage matches in the majors, though, he can get in his own head at the sight of adversity and might be in a bad spot here if he goes down a set and a break.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev Pick

I do believe Tsitsipas will come away with this match, playing the best tennis of his career at the age of 22. His form seemed good enough to give Medvedev a run at the Australian Open this year, but a five-set match with Rafael Nadal just a couple days prior to the encounter tuckered the Greek out and removed all hope for a long, exciting match.

The fact of the matter is, it’s hard to put too much weight into Medvedev’s dominant 6-1 record because Tsitsipas wasn’t near the same level back when the vast majority of these matches were played, and his serve in particular has developed to a point where he’s able to hang with a returner like Medvedev.

The one thing I will put stock into with those matches is how they transpired. Every meeting between these two, with the exception of that aforementioned match at the Australian Open, has gone over the total. I suspect Medvedev will really push Tsitsipas here but after splitting the first two sets, the World No. 5 will prevail on his way to a trip to the final at Roland Garros.

Pick: Over 37.5 (-118)

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