Jannik Sinner closed at around -300 odds to win the 2026 French Open after Carlos Alcaraz had announced he was injured and not able to participate.
After opening around -250 entering May, Sinner moved to -300 to win the French Open, with the next closest player — Alexander Zverev — sitting all the way back at +750.
At that number, Sinner became the biggest favorite entering any Grand Slam since Rafael Nadal at the 2009 French Open.
After a first-round win over Clement Tabur, Sinner started off strong against Juan Manuel Cerundolo before cramps became an issue, and Sinner ended up losing the final three sets and ultimately lost in five.
Rafael Nadal in 2009 and Sinner in 2026 are the only two players in the past 30 years to enter a Grand Slam at odds of -300 or higher on the men’s side. Only three players (men and women) have closed at -300 or higher to enter a slam, and all three lost before serious stages of the event.
Earlier this year, Sinner was listed at -120 entering the Australian Open. Now, just months later, he becomes one of the very few players in modern tennis history to close as an odds-on favorite at multiple Grand Slams in the same calendar year.
Ironically enough, the men's dominance we once knew was relying a bit on Sinner to start anew. Since 1990, we've had 36 odds-on favorites entering a Grand Slam.
Between 1990 and 2019, those dominant men went 22-6 in terms of winning the tournament and were a massive favorite in all 28, including Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic.
Since 2020, these big favorites are 3-6 winning the slam, with Djoker and Nadal breaking down and Sinner losing the Aussie and now the French this year. We've also now seen three straight odds-on favorites fall short:
• 2026 Jannik Sinner at French Open (Lost in 2nd Round)
• 2026 Jannik Sinner at Australian Open (Lost in Semifinal)
• 2023 Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon (Lost in Final)
In that 36-odds-on-favorites span, we had yet to see three straight fail to hoist the trophy. Well, now we have.
