Since going five sets with Miomir Kecmanovic in the opening round, the No. 1 player in the world — Jannik Sinner — hasn't dropped a set against a trio of opponents to reach the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
Now the Italian is set to face Jan-Lennard Struff, a big serving German who has already upset Daniil Medvedev.
Find my Wimbledon preview and Sinner vs Struff prediction for Tuesday below.
Jannik Sinner vs Jan-Lennard Struff Player Prediction
- Sinner vs Struff Pick: Under 31.5
My Sinner vs Struff best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.
Sinner vs Struff Odds
| Jannik Sinner Odds | -3200 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff Odds | +1200 |
| Spread | Sinner -7.5 (-135), Struff +7.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under | 31.5 (-115o / -130u) |
| Sinner-Struff H2H | 3-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, Approx. 8 a.m. ET | ESPN Unlmtd |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Sinner vs Struff Predictions, Betting Analysis
By: Chris Gimino
Despite Struff's big serve, I'm expecting a quick match here.
My tennis model shows value (a B+ grade and a 6.1% edge) on under 31.5.
Ultimately, here's how my model works:
For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability.
First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).
Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.
Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.
From there, the same win probability gets used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing what the model thinks against what the market is actually offering.
The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.
Sample size matters throughout: thin data — a new player, an early-season surface, a small odds sample — gets a real statistical haircut rather than being trusted at face value, which is why some big-looking numbers still grade low.
And here's the total matchup chart of what I'm basing these edges on:
So, all in all, I expect Sinner to cruise to another victory, reaching the Wimbledon semifinals in the process.
Pick: Under 31.5
