The Round of 16 at Wimbledon begins on Sunday, and one of the most interesting matches of the day is between a qualifier and one of the greatest tennis players of all time.
Roman Safiullin's run continues after an upset over Joao Fonseca in the third round, while Novak Djokovic is searching for his 25th Grand Slam title.
Find my Wimbledon preview and Safiullin vs Djokovic prediction for Sunday below.
Roman Safiullin vs Novak Djokovic Player Prediction
- Safiullin vs Djokovic Pick: Novak Djokovic -5.5
My Safiullin vs Djokovic best bet is on Djokovic to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.
Safiullin vs Djokovic Odds
| Roman Safiullin Odds | +377 |
| Novak Djokovic Odds | -549 |
| Spread | Safiullin +5.5 (-110), Djokovic -5.5 (-130) |
| Over/Under | 37.5 (-115o / -125u) |
| Safiullin-Djokovic H2H | 0-3 |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, Approx. 8:30 a.m. ET | ESPN Unlmtd |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Safiullin vs Djokovic Preview, Prediction
It's been a great run for Safiullin — who's won five straight matches to get to this point, including victories over Andrey Rublev and Fonseca — but I'm expecting it to end here.
In the three matches they've played historically, Safiullin has never even won a set against the Serbian.
Thus, I'm taking Djokovic -5.5, which, according to my tennis model, holds a B+ grade and a 6.1% overall edge.
Basically, for my model, this is what I'm trying to accomplish:For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).
Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.
Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.
From there, the same win probability gets used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing what the model thinks against what the market is actually offering.
The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.
In the case of this matchup, here's where the edges lie statistically:
Picks: Novak Djokovic -5.5
