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Jil Teichmann vs. Sloane Stephens French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (May 29)

Jil Teichmann vs. Sloane Stephens French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (May 29) article feature image

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Sloane Stephens.

Teichmann vs. Stephens Odds

Teichmann Odds-200
Stephens Odds+155
Time10:15 a.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

World No. 24 Jil Teichmann pulled off an epic victory in the third round of the French Open. Teichmann defeated Victoria Azarenka 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(5), and she’ll get a chance to follow that up against American Sloane Stephens.

Can Teichmann continue to advance in Paris against former finalist Stephens?

Let’s break down this round of 16 match.

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Teichmann’s Lefty Game Is Dangerous

Teichmann had to fight very hard against Azarenka, as she wasn’t near her best. Typically, Teichmann’s consistent lefty game does not produce 58 unforced errors.

However, this high number of unforced errors is a testament to the pressure that Azarenka put on Teichmann to go for more than she wanted.

Despite this, when Azarenka went to serve for the match at *5-4 in the third, Teichmann’s game didn’t let her down and it was Azarenka who faltered.

Teichmann did a great job of neutralizing Azarenka’s first serve, as she won 45% of her first-serve return points with Azarenka serving 79% first serves in.

The Swiss has now won at least 45% of her first-serve points in all three of her matches this season at Roland Garros. She has also broken a combined 16 times in wins over Bernarda Pera, Olga Danilovic and Azarenka.

Teichmann has won 67% of her career matches on clay. This season, Teichmann is now 11-3 on clay and she’s won six of her last seven matches. She understands how to construct points on the dirt.

The heavy lefty game that Teichmann possesses is particularly tough on clay. She keeps her groundstrokes deep in the court and her forehand explodes off the court and is hard for opponents to handle.

Teichmann is very consistent and has great movement, which allows her to use her excellent counterpunching skills to eventually turn points around.

It is important to note, however, that Teichmann’s backhand can be pressured and is prone to break down. While she can hit some nice angled shots from that wing, her backhand has less consistency and can more easily be targeted.

Stephens Returning to Form

Stephens looks like a new player in Paris this week, as she had gone 0-4 on clay in 2022 coming into Roland Garros. In the third round, Stephens beat Diane Parry 6-2, 6-3.

She destroyed the Parry serve, winning 56% of her return points, including 62% of her first-serve return points. This allowed Stephens to break Parry’s serve six times. Stephens won over 45% of her return points in all three of her matches so far this week against Jule Niemeier, Sorana Cirstea and Parry.

Stephens thrives on the clay, as she’s won 64% of her professional matches on the dirt, higher than her winning percentages on grass and hard courts. The slower surface gives the lightning-fast Stephens even more time to retrieve and counterpunch.

This is why it was so disappointing that Stephens started this clay-court season 0-4, which included an embarrassing defeat to (then) World. No 306 Nefisa Berberovic 6-2, 4-6, 1-6 in Strasbourg. When things go wrong for Stephens, they tend to snowball.

However, Stephens typically plays well during the Slams and Roland Garros has been no different. When Stephens is in form, her movement is outstanding and she’s very solid from both wings. She strikes the ball so well and has very easy power while limiting her unforced errors.

Betting Value

This match will feature plenty of long rallies as both players are very consistent from the baseline.

Teichmann’s lefty forehand gives a lot of players troubles, but Stephens’ backhand is steady enough and she’s able to change directions from that wing where the American can neutralize Teichmann’s best shot when the Swiss goes crosscourt with her forehand.

Stephens can keep the points alive until she has her opportunity to target the Teichmann backhand and get short balls that she can put away with her easy power.

Her high rally tolerance will make Teichmann grind out another long match, and that’s a problem for Teichmann considering she was on court for over three hours against Azarenka.

It’s also important to note that this is Teichmann’s first appearance in a Major round of 16 in her career, whereas Stephens has been in the deeper rounds of Slams many times. There is a stark difference in experience on a stage this big and that should benefit Stephens.

Pick: Stephens +3.5 games (-120)

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