Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Alexander Bublik French Open Odds, Prediction (May 26)

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Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Alexander Bublik Odds

Miomir Kecmanovic is enjoying a career year at the age of 22 and seems to finally be tapping into the wealth of potential he's always had ever since he was a junior.  He's into the second round of the French Open for the third time in his career and can put together his best result to date at Roland Garros with a win over Alexander Bublik on Thursday.

While the odds would indicate this one should be rather straightforward, it could get a little complicated for the young Serb. Let's break this one down.

Miomir Kecmanovic

Much has been expected of Kecmanovic after he reached No. 1 in the ITF World Junior rankings and won the Orange Bowl. For years, he tore through the lower levels of tennis and eventually made it as a mainstay on the ATP Tour in 2019 with his first title coming on the clay in Kitzbuhel the following season.

What followed through the pandemic and in the re-start was a lack of results. The 22-year-old Serb finished his 2021 season with a 17-27 record at all levels and, while seeking answers, he hired David Nalbandian has his coach. The partnership instantly paid off with Kecmanovic flashing a bigger serve and bigger forehand in a run to the fourth round of the Australian Open.

Since then, Kecmanovic has produced the results that were missing before. He went to the quarters in Rio de Janeiro and the quarters of each leg of the Sunshine Double. He was able to take out some dangerous names along the way like Matteo Berrettini, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz.

With all that said, it's hard to say Kecmanovic has impressed this clay-court season after some solid results during the early year Golden Swing on the dirt. He entered Roland Garros 6-4 since clay season started, though two of those losses came to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

Alexander Bublik

Bublik is one of the most talented tennis players in the world, but the one thing holding him back has always been his attitude toward the game. While he has a massive serve and special feel around the net, his nonchalant play and lack of consistent focus have made him a hard player to read and one who's still in search of his first meaningful result.

The 24-year-old Kazakh has also openly admitted to hating clay-court tennis, which would seem to be the truth considering his record through the years. Perhaps in an effort to avoid playing too many matches on the dreaded dirt, Bublik was bounced in his first matches in Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Geneva — though it should be said that in the two Masters 1000 tournaments, he was able to play very competitive tennis.

The lack of focus, coupled with the hatred for clay, have brought us to this moment. Bublik, who would be no longer than a +150 underdog in my eyes on a hardcourt against Kecmanovic, is nearly +400 to win this match.

While it's not the his preferred surface, it should be noted that Bublik has had a decent amount of success on clay. He reached the quarterfinals of the ATP 250 event in Hamburg in 2020 with some impressive wins over Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Felix Auger-Aliassime and the quarterfinals last year in Madrid, where he was ousted by the dangerous Casper Ruud. His great feel around the net and the way he can shape his forehand certainly plays well on dirt.

While this clay season hasn't been as kind, Bublik did well to quiet concerns with a commanding straight-set win over Arthur Rinderknech in the first round.

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Betting Value

Make no mistake: Bublik can absolutely win this match. He has arguably more talent than Kecmanovic and while this hasn't been his year on the dirt, the past two seasons are proof he can pick up wins on the surface.

We also know that while Bublik doesn't like clay, he does like money and ranking points. Because of this, he's always put forth a great effort in Grand Slam matches and we should expect nothing less here.

Bublik beat Kecmanovic on a hardcourt in 2021 and just a few weeks ago fell to the Serb on the clay 6-4, 7-5 in a very close match. With a booming serve and some renewed focus and energy here in Paris, I think Bublik should repeat his performance from Madrid and keep this match close. I also will have some exposure to the moneyline with the thought that Bublik may just be hustling the rest of the tour right now, making them think he doesn't want to be playing this match.

Pick: Bublik +6.5 Games (-105)