Tuesday Madrid Open Odds, Predictions, Picks | Swiatek vs Haddad Maia, Jabeur vs Keys (April 30)
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek.
The Madrid Open has featured incredible tennis so far and the quarterfinals are here!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups – Swiatek vs Haddad Maia and Jabeur vs Keys.
Read on to find Madrid picks for Tuesday, April 30.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Madrid Open Odds, Predictions & Picks
Iga Swiatek (-1400) vs Beatriz Haddad Maia (+800)
6:30 a.m. ET
Iga Swiatek defeated Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1, 6-0 in Madrid's round of 16. Swiatek won 71% of her service points and was only broken once. The Pole also won an impressive 74% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
Swiatek, who has won the French Open three times, has a ridiculous 116-17 career-record on clay and is 5-1 this season on the surface. Swiatek has one of the top forehands in the game, hitting it with precision and pace. Her backhand, formerly a weakness, is much more solid and she's developed it into a weapon. The world No. 1 hits her spots on serve, spreads the court well and utilizes great variety. And she's quick, anticipates well and absorbs pace effectively.
Swiatek's only issue is she can occasionally get overwhelmed with pace.
Beatriz Haddad Maia beat Maria Sakkari 6-4, 6-4 to advance to the Madrid quarterfinals. Haddad Maia won 60% of her service points, getting broken just twice. In addition, the Brazilian won 46% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Haddad Maia has a strong 212-105 record on clay as a professional, with a 5-2 mark on the dirt in 2024. The Brazilian dictates with her lefty forehand, balancing control and power well from that wing. She's fairly solid with her backhand, although this side is more prone to breaking down. Haddad Maia is very fit, consistent, anticipates successfully and is solid at the net. With that said, Haddad Maia doesn't have overwhelming power.
Swiatek's backhand is strong enough to handle Haddad Maia's lefty forehand cross court. The Pole's forehand is the best shot on the court and, along with the altitude, she should hang in rallies until she gets the chance to blast through Haddad Maia's defenses.
And the Pole should use her incredible control to effectively target the world No. 14's backhand.
Finally, Swiatek's overall Elo rating is 385.5 points higher than Haddad Maia's and her clay Elo is 339.4 points above the Brazilian's. In fact, Swiatek has the highest overall Elo and clay Elo on the WTA Tour.
Pick: Under 18.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
Ons Jabeur (-170) vs Madison Keys (+135)
2 p.m. ET
Ons Jabeur took down Jelena Ostapenko 6-4, 6-0 in Madrid's round of 16. Jabeur won 64% of her service points and was only broken once. In addition, the Tunisian won 56% of her return points and broke on five occasions.
Jabeur is now an incredible 166-66 on clay for her career, having gone 4-2 so far in 2024 on the dirt. The Tunisian hits her spots on serve and dictates play behind her forehand, that she hits with controlled aggression. She can play offense with her backhand, as well, although less reliably. Jabeur is known, however, for her variety, as she spreads the court, introducing different angles and spins. Jabeur's touch is incredible, including her potent drop shot.
The world No. 9 lacks fitness and foot speed on court, however. In addition, Jabeur can lose her patience and rally tolerance.
Madison Keys upset Coco Gauff 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-4 to make the Madrid quarterfinals. Keys won just 52% of her service points, getting broken on seven occasions. The American also won 46% of her return points, breaking seven times.
Keys has a solid 79-47 mark on clay as a professional, with a 3-1 record to start this year. Keys has a powerful serve and baseline game, making her particularly tough to play in Madrid's altitude, especially from her forehand side. Keys plays aggressively with her backhand, but is more erratic. She also struggles with her movement, rally tolerance and successful point construction.
Jabeur matches up well with Keys, having won both of their previous meetings in straight sets. While lacking skills, Jabeur has the racquet skills to neutralize Keys' power and the aggression on her own forehand to not allow the American to dictate nearly as often as she would like.
And Jabeur's variety, including her drop shots, should force Keys to worry about moving forwards, as opposed to only moving laterally. This variety keeps the ball out of Keys' strike zone and when it comes to drop shots, she doesn't have the foot speed to effectively respond.
In addition, Keys' own variety is not nearly as polished as Jabeur's.
Pick: Jabeur -2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
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