US Open Predictions for Rublev vs Wong, Paul vs Bublik

The third round of the US Open concludes on Saturday, August 30, at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

There is plenty of upset potential on the men's side as I see trouble for both Andrey Rublev and Tommy Paul.

Find my US Open predictions and third-round picks for Rublev vs Wong and Paul vs Bublik below.

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US Open Predictions

Andrey Rublev vs Coleman Wong Odds

It's just all breaking right for Coleman Wong here at the US Open.

The youngster from Hong Kong has established himself as a talented tennis prospect with good work down on the ATP Challenger Tour over the last couple of years, and now he's finally garnering some recognition with a blazing fast run through a talented field of opponents in Queens.

After qualifying for Cincinnati and earning a nice win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Wong took out a tough qualifying draw to make it into the US Open main draw, where he would then topple two solid, and experienced players in Aleksandar Kovacevic and Adam Walton.

The 21-year-old Wong has decent pop on his serve and forehand, and it's taken him to great heights with a win over Ben Shelton earlier this season at the Miami Masters standing as one of the biggest wins of his career. What's been even more impressive is Wong's return, however, and he held Walton to just 61% of points won on the first serve last round and 48% behind the second.

Andrey Rublev does have a bigger serve than Walton, but it's not averaging as much juice as Wong's. He's also one of the worst top-50 players on his second serve. Even against a weak Tristan Boyer in his last match, Rublev failed to win more than 48% of second-serve points while also serving at just 58% for the match.

I suspect Rublev will help Wong into this match, and it's entirely possible the young upstart takes matters into his own hands early with finishing power on the forehand side. He's also been practicing with Taylor Fritz, who is almost a carbon copy of Rublev when it comes to play style — something else that will help him here.

With Wong's nerves becoming an issue time and time again at this level, however, it would be hard to see him holding onto any leads he gets in this match with ease, and as a guy who has flirted with trouble on account of the break points he's coughed up, I think this should become a very contentious, back-and-forth affair.

Pick: Over 33.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik Odds

It's hard to get a read on Tommy Paul right now, but that's really not news. The American gives nothing away on the court, playing fatigued or injured numerous times while maintaining his same even-keeled body language.

In a larger sense, too, it's been hard to figure out what we're going to get from Paul in front of these US Open crowds. He hadn't even made it out of the first round at this event in four trips to the main draw until 2022, when he had something of a breakthrough season, but even then he was forced to go five sets in the first round as a huge favorite and fell behind two sets to one against Sebastian Korda the very next match.

That year, Paul had a golden opportunity to take out Casper Ruud before falling apart and getting bageled in the fifth set, and in the last two years the American won just one match in straight sets, which came after his opponent retired in the third.

The moral of the story is that Paul's runs in Queens are always an adventure, and he's no stranger to playing down to competition. After a narrow escape from a 2-0 comeback on Wednesday against Nuno Borges, this couldn't be any more apparent, and now there's a serious question of how much Paul will have left for a titanic clash with Alexander Bublik.

It's been a career year for the World No. 24, who's won three titles on tour and one more on the Challenger circuit. He has topped the likes of Jannik Sinner, Jack Draper and Daniil Medvedev, and looks as focused and hungry as ever before.

Bublik also had a huge test in the first round against a resurgent Marin Cilic, only to dispatch him in three simple sets. Bublik then went toe-to-toe with a crafty baseliner in Tristan Schoolkate and left his opponent no chance to win.

The Kazakh is serving big and limiting the mistakes, which should lend a different flavor to this seventh career meeting between the two. Paul has won five of those matches, but has only done so in straight sets twice — and four of those matches also came prior to the middle of the 2021 season, which lends little credibility to the career head-to-head.

I see an unstoppable version of Bublik right now, and under the bright lights in Arthur Ashe Stadium, the pressure will be as high as ever on Paul. That hasn't worked out for him historically at this event, and while I've been deliberating between the total or the moneyline, there's a strong chance Bublik plays well enough to close this out inside of five sets.

The number's simply too high, but Bublik still isn't expensive enough to shy me away.

Pick: Bublik ML (-130 via FanDuel)