Sun vs. Aces Odds, Picks | WNBA Betting Preview (July 1)

Sun vs. Aces Odds, Picks | WNBA Betting Preview (July 1) article feature image

Pictured: Las Vegas Aces guard Kelsey Plum defends Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas. (Photo by Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Sun vs. Aces Odds

Saturday, July 1
3 p.m. ET
Sun Odds

-110 / -110
Aces Odds
-110 / -110
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The Connecticut Sun head to Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Aces in an awesome Sunday matchup on ABC. The Aces are a remarkable 14-1 to start the season, which, as Jack Maloney pointed out for CBS Sports, has them joining the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks and 1998 Houston Comets for the best start in WNBA history. Oh, both of those teams went on to win the title.

Of course, the Aces' lone loss came to the Sun on June 8, when Connecticut ran away with a 94-77 home win. The blowout nature of the win was a bit of a surprise, but it wasn't a surprise that the Sun got it done. Connecticut, at 12-4, is directly behind the Aces in the standings.

This should be an awesome game between the top teams in the league so far, so let's preview the matchup from a WNBA betting perspective.

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Connecticut Sun

The aforementioned victory over the Aces came through one name and one name (almost) entirely: DeWanna Bonner.

She set a career-high (and franchise record) with 41 points against the Aces as she made 16-of-23 shots from the field, including 5-of-7 from deep. The next leading scorer for the Sun was Brionna Jones, who was having an excellent season before tearing her Achilles in a win over Seattle two weeks later.

On the surface, the loss of Jones is likely why this line is so large. However, when these teams met back in the middle of June, the Aces were a consensus 5.5-point favorite, implying an 8.5-point edge on a neutral court. With the game now in Vegas, that appears to be the same, the three-point, home-court edge being the only difference.

It's interesting that the books aren't baking in any difference with Jones out, but the emergence of DiJonai Carrington may explain that. Rebecca Allen was asked to fill Jones' starting spot, but Carrington has filled the void. The third-year wing has tallied 17, 17 and then 23 points in the three games since Jones' injury. She's also added six rebounds and 2.3 assists in those games.

The Sun won the first two games without Jones, but the third game was against the Liberty and Jones' absence was a bit more apparent. The Sun scored their fewest points in nine games and suffered their first loss in multiple weeks.

Las Vegas Aces

The Aces +232 point differential through their first 15 games is the best in league history. They are winning games by an average of 19.2 points per game — a mind-numbing stat. That one loss, as pointed out above, came as the result of a franchise-high point total from Bonner, and while Carrington has done well filling in for Jones, it has come via a stretch of unsustainably hot shooting.

The Aces also excel at stopping all the things the Sun do well. The Sun love to score off turnovers and lead the league with 19.5 points per game off turnovers. The Aces, however, allow the second-fewest points off turnovers in the league. The Sun attempt the second-most free throws per game in the W, but the Aces send teams to the line the fewest times per game.

Las Vegas is best known for its offense, but the Aces actually allow the second-fewest points per game of any team in the league, and have the second-best defense by almost all metrics.

Sun-Aces Pick

That defense is why I'll be eyeing the Sun team total under. In their two games against the Aces this season, the Sun got a 41-point explosion from Bonner in one matchup and saw Bec Allen go 6-of-7 from deep in another. They are also now without Jones and although the books hung an annoyingly sharp total, I still like the Sun under 78.5 as a lean. However, the over has already taken money, so feel free to wait out this bet.

I also would suggest you consider waiting to bet this number live. First halves have been incredibly high scoring this season, so if you want to wait to bet their team total under at the half, that could be a good look.

Lean: Sun Team Total Under 78.5

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