Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Divisional Round picks I made — for 49ers vs Seahawks and Rams vs Bears — before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
Divisional Round Picks, Parlay & Predictions
49ers vs Seahawks Over/Under Prediction
I usually lean toward overs in the Divisional Round, especially when San Francisco is involved. But this matchup requires looking beneath the surface.
These teams played just two weeks ago, and Seattle won 13-3. That wasn’t a fluke.
San Francisco posted a 36% success rate, just 173 total yards and only three points — the lowest output of Kyle Shanahan’s tenure dating back to his 2017 debut.
The Niners finished with nine first downs and were completely shut down on late downs (2-for-11) and in the red zone (0-for-1), areas where they’re typically elite.
This is exactly why Seattle went out and hired Mike Macdonald. His defenses are built to handle Shanahan and McVay-style offenses.
Seattle currently ranks No. 1 in defensive DVOA, top two against both the run and the pass, and top seven versus the middle of the field, motion, play action and under-center looks — all core Shanahan strengths.
That performance wasn’t an outlier for San Francisco’s offense against real defenses. Since Brock Purdy returned, the 49ers have played four games against defenses ranked 20th or worse in DVOA and four against better units.
Against the weaker defenses, San Francisco posted a 54% success rate and averaged nearly 70 points per game. Against top defenses, that drops to a 40% success rate with just 30.3 points per game, topping out at 42.
Now layer in the injury concerns: George Kittle is out, Trent Williams is questionable, and the supporting cast continues to take hits. This is not an offense at full strength.
Seattle’s offense isn’t exactly humming either. Since the Week 11 game against the Rams, the Seahawks have fallen from No. 1 in pass DVOA to No. 25. They’ve quietly been one of the league’s best under teams, especially early — 13–4 to the under in first half.
This total mirrors San Francisco’s opener against Philadelphia, which opened higher and closed at 44. Expect similar market movement here. At 45.5, the value is on the under.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Rams & Seahawks Moneyline Parlay
Let’s keep this simple and call our shot on the NFC Championship Game.
Start with Seattle.
This is a bet on Macdonald’s defense. San Francisco is banged up across the board, while the Seahawks are rested after a dominant 13-3 road win in Week 18. I don’t fully trust Sam Darnold or the Seahawks offense, but they should be fine against a weakened San Francisco defense that can’t generate pressure.
Seattle also has real playoff equity at home: 10 straight home playoff wins with fans in the building, the third-longest home playoff streak in NFL history.
The Rams side is an easy sell-high spot fading Chicago.
The Bears are coming off what essentially amounted to their Super Bowl, and people forget that the first three quarters of that game matter. Chicago was outplayed through three quarters twice against a banged-up, mediocre Packers team before wild fourth-quarter wins.
Chicago now enters this game without its starting left tackle, its best linebacker in T.J. Edwards, and a secondary that’s held together with tape. The Bears defense is clearly the weak link.
Matthew Stafford’s finger is fine, and the Rams’ offense should name its number. Chicago may score — Sean McVay’s defense has leaked at times — but the Bears aren’t winning a shootout.
The Rams didn’t get the No. 1 seed, but they lucked into Carolina and then a battered Chicago team. They remain my Super Bowl favorite, and this is the safer win of the two legs.
The public will be comfortable backing both favorites, especially with all the injury news piling up on the underdogs.
Pick: Rams & Seahawks Moneyline Parlay (-112; likely closes -125 or worse by game day)
Anderson's Early NFL Divisional Round Bets
- Under 45.5 (-108, DraftKings)
- Rams & Seahawks Moneyline Parlay (-112, FanDuel)
