As the NFL Playoffs continue to develop, I've zeroed in on the two Saturday Divisional Round matchups, as well as a future play.
The two number-one seeds, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, make their first appearance in the playoffs as they respectively take on the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers.
Let's dive into my NFL Divisional Round picks — which include spread predictions, player props and a same-game parlay — for Bills vs Broncos and 49ers vs Seahawks on Saturday, January 17.
NFL Divisional Round Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Broncos Spread Prediction
I am officially putting the Broncos on fraud watch.
We're thinking about this team all wrong. I keep seeing Denver grouped in with Seattle and Houston as a defense-only juggernaut and that's just now what this team has been at all for half a season.
Since Week 11 (all stats excluding Week 18), the Broncos are better offensively than you're probably giving them credit for — and way, way worse defensively.
The offense ranks seventh by DVOA during that stretch and could be a saving grace, but the defense has plummeted all the way to 18th, and it has the same rating in games against teams in the top half of the league over the full season.
In the first nine weeks this season, Denver ranked top-six against both the run and the pass; over the final nine weeks, it finished outside the top-12 at both.
Those patterns continued even once the overrated Patrick Surtain returned healthy to the lineup, and it's not a new pattern either. Last season, this same defense dropped to 14th in DVOA over the same stretch to close the season. The defense has also fallen off mightily against top-12 offenses, allowing almost 28 PPG in those matchups.
Denver is the one-seed, but the Broncos trailed in all but two wins this season and got a flurry of one-score victories. Flip those usually coin-flip outcomes and Denver goes 5-12 this year, bottom of the AFC.
Bo Nix is 1-8 in his career against winning teams that score over 17 points. Sean Payton has lost four of his last five playoff games, three as a home favorite, with the only win over an 8-8 Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky squad.
The Broncos are not your typical one-seed. Over the past two seasons, Denver has played eight games against teams that finished top 10 by DVOA. The Broncos went 1-7 in those games with an awful -83 point differential.
We've been waiting all season for an opportunity to fade this team in this spot as an overrated one-seed — the question is whether Buffalo is the right team to ride with.
The Bills are a great offense and rank 8th by DVOA, so they fit those trends above, but Buffalo has struggled on the road for years and comes in with a slew of injuries, though the potential return of Ed Oliver and Curtis Samuel should help.
Josh Allen comes in banged up, too, but this is the game Buffalo has rebuilt itself for. It will be a tough matchup for Allen against a ferocious pass rush and tough secondary, especially with so few receivers, but the Bills are not a one-man team anymore.
Buffalo is at its best when it leans into its power run game, and the Bills can control the clock and attack the heart of this Denver defense that way.
The Broncos funnel opponent runners inside, but rank 22nd by EPA per play there compared to 2nd on outside runs. That's typically a winning strategy since outside runs can be more dangerous and explosive.
But that feeds right into what Buffalo wants to do with James Cook and one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bills are below league average running outside, but rank 2nd on inside runs.
Cook and Allen should be in for big games, and don't forget about Buffalo's valuable tush push with Allen in short-yardage situations. Denver faced only one opponent all season in the top quarter of the league in rushing, and Jonathan Taylor ran 25 times for 165 yards in a Colts win. And the Bills aren't just a good rushing team — they rank 2nd in DVOA and have the league's leading rusher in Cook.
There's reason to believe Buffalo's defense can hang too.
The Bills rank top five on the season in EPA per play defending 11 personnel, but fall apart against 12 or 21, but Denver doesn't have the RB or TE depth to attack from diverse personnel. Instead, the Broncos feature a ton of short passing, but Buffalo ranks in the top five against short passes by EPA.
You beat the Bills' defense by running the ball, and that's not Denver's strength, nor their M.O. The Broncos are actually one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league.
We just saw these teams play in last year's playoffs, and it was ugly for Denver. The Broncos hit an early bomb, then gave up 31 straight points. Buffalo finished in the 95th percentile or better EPA and Success Rate, doubling up Denver in first downs and more than doubling them in yardage. The Bills ran 31 more plays with 42 minutes of possession as Cook ran for 120 yards and a score.
That's the exact script for these Bills, and it's a version of the team that frankly didn't exist a couple of years ago.
Historic trends tell us to fade favorites in the Divisional Round, with bettors too focused on past record and not enough on what a team has become.
Favorites that won over 75% of their regular-season games are just 18-35 ATS this round (34%) over the past two decades, and one-seeds after a bye are just 15-19-1 ATS (34%), including an ugly 3-10 ATS and 6-7 SU as six-point favorites or worse like Denver.
And after all that, we haven't even talked about the biggest mismatch of the weekend — Josh Allen versus Bo Nix.
Allen is the best QB in the playoffs, maybe in football, and Nix is the worst quarterback left in the postseason. Allen can handle the Denver pass rush and add value in the run game, while Nix has yet to prove his mettle in big games and is far worse against zone in his career. He could struggle with Sean McDermott's coverages, especially when McDermott disguises things to confuse Nix.
When Allen is anything under a field goal favorite in his career, he's 34-19-2 ATS, covering 64% of the time.
When Allen faces a defense that allows 20 PPG or less, he's even better at 29-10-1 ATS. That's just ahead of Tom Brady among all players over the last two decades.
Translation: elite quarterbacks are going to find a way to score some points, even against your great defense, because elite quarterback equals elite offense, and elite offense beats elite defense.
Ready for one last killer trend? Just combine those two.
When Allen is under a field goal favorite facing a defense that allows 10 PPG or less, he's a ridiculous 19-3-1 ATS in his career. That's an insane 86% cover rate, and he has won 14 of his last 16 such games outright — all but those two memorable Chiefs playoff losses.
That trend will apply next round too, by the way, and would go against Seattle in a Super Bowl too.
I'm ready to buy Allen and Buffalo stock.
Start with the Bills' moneyline at -102 (FanDuel) to get the win, but we're not stopping there.
The Bills have scored at least 24 points in nine of Allen's last 10 playoff games, so over 23.5 is a no-brainer at +100 (DraftKings) against this overrated Denver defense. Buffalo averages 29.6 PPG in those games, so play 27+ points too at +200 (DraftKings), a number Allen's Bills have hit eight of the last 10 playoff games.
With the Seattle and New England games both expected to be lower-scoring, Buffalo could end up with the highest score of the weekend. Bet them at +800 to do so (FanDuel) and hope the Chicago weather dampens the Rams–Bears game to give us a shot.
Buffalo has won eight of its 13 games this season by at least a touchdown and over half of their wins are by double digits, including wins by 19, 20, 27, and 31. If we expect the Bills to score and think Denver might struggle to do so, this could get ugly.
Last year in this spot, we smashed Bills alts at -7.5, all the way to -23.5 at +520, so let's run it back and go for the double.
If the Bills do win, they may win by margin. Bet Bills -5.5 at +225 and Bills -9.5 at +450, and sprinkle a bit on Buffalo -16.5 at +900 too in case this really gets away from Denver (all FanDuel).
Is it finally Buffalo's time? It may just be on Saturday.
Pick: Bills Moneyline (-102, FanDuel)
Other Bets to Consider:
- Bills to Score 27+ Points (+200, DraftKings)
- Bills Highest Scoring Divisional Round Team (+800, FanDuel)
- Bills -5.5 (+225, FanDuel)
- Bills -9.5 (+450, FanDuel)
- Sprinkle Bills -16.5 (+900, FanDuel)
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49ers vs Seahawks Parlay; Player Props
Saturday night brings us another rematch, though much more recent than Buffalo-Denver.
In fact, this is a rematch of the last game Seattle played!
That was that huge Saturday night game to close out the regular season, which is a good place to start here because it's a reminder of how huge a rest advantage Seattle has over this banged-up 49ers squad and it's worth remembering just how much the Seahawks dominated that one in a 13-3 win that wasn't that close.
The numbers were not close: 361 yards to 173, 29 first downs to 9, 50% Success Rate to just 36%. It was the fewest yards and points a Kyle Shanahan team had seen since his head coaching debut.
Seattle's awesome defense held an elite 49ers defense to 2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-1 in the red zone — a far cry from San Francisco's usual domination and No. 1 rating in those money downs.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, that dropoff against good defenses has been the norm, not the exception.
The 49ers have played eight games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. Half of them have come against a defense ranked 20th or worse, and San Francisco has a 54% Success Rate in those high-scoring affairs, with a total at 69.8 PPG. But in four games against any defense with even a pulse at 19th or better, that plummets to just 40% Success Rate and only 30.3 PPG total.
This looks like a low-scoring affair, and that all led me to bet under 47.5 when the line opened on Sunday night on the Hot Read. I still like the under best, and though it's crossed the key number now, there's still some value at under 45.5.
Mike MacDonald's Seattle defense was built for offenses like this. The Seahawks are elite against motion and playaction, elite defending the middle of the field — all those areas where Shanahan's offense has lived over the years. Seattle also ranks top-two on both late downs and in the red zone, where Shanahan's Niners are most efficient.
Seattle plays the second most light boxes in the league, opting to keep extra defensive backs on the field, but the 49ers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year and rank just 30th against light boxes by EPA per play. San Francisco also doesn't get many explosives offensively and shouldn't against a defense that takes them away.
The Seahawks are the league's best team against WR1 as well, which could be a problem if Ricky Pearsall is limited or out again and Jauan Jennings is the only real downfield threat, especially with George Kittle out too.
San Francisco should find some success on short passes, one purposeful area of weakness for Seattle, but that's a tough way to live, grinding out long, slow drives down the field against Seattle.
Of course, the Seahawks could end up in a similar situation.
San Francisco's defense is just as bad as you think, but Seattle's defense has really fallen off over the course of the season.
Through 10 games, Seattle led the league in Passing DVOA, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was putting up historic numbers, on pace for a 2,000 yard season. Klint Kubiak's offense was confusing opponents, putting heavy personnel on the field to invite heavier defense, then attacking deep down the field and shredding with the pass.
Then Week 11 happened against the Rams. L.A. paid little attention to Seattle's heavy packages and played it on tendencies instead, expecting the pass and mostly stopping it, confusing Sam Darnold along the way. That worked like a charm, and teams have copied that idea with success against Seattle since.
Remember how the Seahawks ranked first in Passing DVOA through 10 games? They're just 25th since, bottom quarter of the league.
Robert Saleh's defense lacks healthy bodies, but Saleh deploys a high amount of zone coverage and Sam Darnold has been far worse against zone defense this season.
San Francisco also struggles mightily against WR2 and WR3 down the line but has held its own against WR1s, and Seattle's pass attack is dependent heavily on JSN, whose numbers have fallen off since that Rams game.
Seattle is a run-heavy team and has predictably run the ball better during this more recent stretch — it helps when your opponent isn't stacking the box — but better running at the cost of far worse passing is a losing formula overall.
The Seahawks should run with success on this very beatable 49ers rush defense, but San Francisco will live with that — again, long 10-or-12-play drives, chewing up the clock and keeping the underdog close, hoping for Darnold to make a mistake along the way.
In a low-scoring game with long, slow drives expected, that under looks pretty tasty, and it also makes 7.5 too many points to give the underdog.
I've been high on Seattle all season and give this team a significant home field and rest advantage and even still, I can't get to or past the key number.
Remember, one-seeds after the bye are 34% ATS in the Divisional Round, and favorites this round that won over 75% of their regular season games are also 34% ATS.
San Francisco is the best trends play of the weekend. Road teams this round that missed the previous postseason are 29-14 ATS (67%), and road teams in division rematches are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in the playoffs.
I lean San Francisco +7.5 and expect the 49ers to keep this competitive since Seattle's offense isn't putting teams away, but I do expect Seattle to win.
The Seahawks have won 10 straight home playoff games with fans in the stands and Darnold is 13-0 SU lifetime as a favorite of six or more. Teams with 14+ days rest versus those on six days or less are a perfect 7-0 SU over the last four decades of playoffs, and underdog Wild Card Round winners have won a second game just two of their last 24 tries.
Teams like Seattle rarely lose, even if the number is inflated. Build yourself an SGP: San Francisco +7.5 to cover the high lines but Seattle to win, by seven or less, at +202 (bet365).
If we do get lots of long, strenuous drives, that should mean plenty of short passes.
I played Christian McCaffrey receptions in the Week 18 matchup with success and wanted to hit that again here with Seattle allowing the most receptions to RBs of any NFL team, but books got ahead of it this time and there's simply no value on the lines.
McCaffrey averages 9.3 targets in games where Kittle played 50% of the snaps or less this season, but there's another player who should see a direct uptick with Kittle out: Jake Tonges.
Check out Tonges' stat line in his last three games without Kittle: 7/60, 6/48, and 7/41. It's not pretty but the volume is there, along with a pair of TDs.
Seattle allowed the 5th most receptions to tight ends this season, with 7+ catches to TEs in over half their games and 8+ in over a third. San Francisco had 13 TE receptions in its two games against Seattle this season.
Tonges won't match Kittle's versatility or game-breaking upside, but he should see some volume. His receptions line is a full catch too low so I'll play 5+ catches at +135 along with just as much of my bet at 6+ receptions at +257, and let's play 7+ at +508 too (all DraftKings) in case Tonges matches his total from two of his last three games without Kittle.
If we get short passing the other way, it may come from Seattle's running backs since San Francisco allowed the second most RB receptions this season, trailing only Seattle. Twenty RBs this season had 3+ catches against San Francisco, more than one per game, and nine had 4+ catches.
Kenneth Walker has quietly seen his receiving volume increase. He's averaging 2.5 catches for 25 yards over the past eight games, way up from must 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards before that. Walker has 20 catches in those eight games, as many as Zach Charbonnet has all season.
Walker had 3+ catches six times this season, including both San Francisco games. Bet Walker to catch three passes at +190, with a small escalator at 4+ receptions for +525 as well (both bet365).
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +7.0, Seattle Seahawks Moneyline (+202 Parlay, bet365)
Other Bets to Consider:
- Jake Tonges 5+ Receptions (+135, DraftKings)
- Jake Tonges 7+ Receptions (+508, DraftKings)
- Kenneth Walker 3+ Receptions (+190, bet365)
- Kenneth Walker 4+ Receptions (+525, bet365)
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NFC Futures Parlay
That sets up a Seattle vs Los Angeles NFC Championship, and if we get that, it guarantees one of those two teams will play in the Super Bowl, as the clear favorite against any AFC opponent.
It's never too late to play a futures bet.
I bet a Seahawks-Rams ML parlay on Sunday night on the Hot Read, but we can take this a step further. Build a weekend moneyline parlay of Seahawks and Rams, then add "NFC participant to win Super Bowl" for a juicy +220 parlay at Caesars that's badly mispriced in a clearly correlated outcome.
Parlay: Seahawks Moneyline, Rams Moneyline, NFC Participant to win Super Bowl
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Brandon's Divisional Round Saturday Betting Card
- Bills Moneyline (-102, FanDuel)
- Bills to Score 27+ Points (+200, DraftKings)
- Bills Highest Scoring Divisional Round Team (+800, FanDuel)
- Bills -5.5 (+225, FanDuel)
- Bills -9.5 (+450, FanDuel)
- Sprinkle Bills -16.5 (+900, FanDuel)
- San Francisco 49ers +7.0, Seattle Seahawks Moneyline (+202 Parlay, bet365)
- Jake Tonges 5+ Receptions (+135, DraftKings)
- Jake Tonges 7+ Receptions (+508, DraftKings)
- Kenneth Walker 3+ Receptions (+190, bet365)
- Kenneth Walker 4+ Receptions (+525, bet365)
