More from Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson's Picks
Today
MIA -2.5-112
WAS
@
MIA
0.5u
11/16 2:30 PM
It's our last international game of the year and our first ever in Madrid!
It looks like a bit of a stinker with Jayden Daniels out and both teams disappointing, but that doesn't mean we can't find an angle!
Season-long metrics say these teams are mostly even. Just look at the DVOA.
Washington's offense is slightly ahead, 19th to 25th, though obviously those numbers include all the Daniels games. The teams are 23rd and 24th on defense, 3rd and 4th on special teams. It looks like a dead heat.
Dig a little deeper, though, and you find a very different story.
We've had 10 weeks of NFL. Over the first half of them, Washington ranked 8th on offense and 13th on defense by DVOA, a clear playoff-caliber fringe-top-10 team. Since Week 6, the Commanders have plummeted to 26th and 31th, (dis)respectively — about as bad as any team in the league, especially on defense.
Over the same time from, the Dolphins rose from dead last in Defensive DVOA the first five weeks to 7th since. Miami has been helped by some opponent injuries and off games, but the trend is clear. Miami's defense has improved from awful to at least average at the exact same time as Washington's plummeted from average to awful.
The Commanders just don't have much defensive talent, and what little they had has taken a ton of injuries, with DT DaRon Payne suspended this week on top of everything. Dan Quinn has taken over play calling on defense, but coaches can't make magic out of nothing.
This is just a bad defense, and its one real strength is at linebacker with veterans Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, but Miami attacks horizontally and outside, stretching the field, and those two will likely be too slow to keep up with De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and all that Dolphins speed.
Teams that allow over 24 points in at least five straight games are just 37% ATS since 2018. Once we learn a defense is that bad, it's often profitable to just keep betting against them.
As for Washington's offense, the passing game is in tatters right now without Daniels and Terry McLaurin, unable to attack this beatable Miami secondary, and a once potent rushing attack has cratered.
Ever heard of the Kliff cliff? Year after year, Kliff Kingsbury's teams tend to have some answers early in the season but get found out later in the year. Kingsbury's rushing attack looked good early despite a lack of talent, but it's disappeared entirely of late.
Neither of these teams is enjoying its season, but they're still headed in opposite directions. Sunday made that clear, and the line adjusted accordingly from Washington being a slight favorite to Miami near a field goal.
It's almost always a good idea to back favorites in international games — makes sense, right? Just take the better team on a neutral field. Excluding Jaguars games (because they play overseas so often), favorites in international games are 28-13 ATS, covering 68% of the time.
Miami doesn't have to be good — it just has to be better than whatever's left of Washington. Grab the Dolphins at -2.5 while it's available below the key number.
69
T.Higgins 80+ Receiving Yards Yes+230
CIN
@
PIT
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
55
T.Higgins 100+ Receiving Yards Yes+500
CIN
@PIT
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
47
J.Warren 100+ Rushing Yards Yes+310
CIN
@PIT
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
50
J.Warren o119.5 Rush Yds+700
CIN
@PIT
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
35
K.Gainwell Anytime TD Scorer Yes+470
CIN
@PIT
0.4u
11/16 6:00 PM
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
67
K.Gainwell 2+ TDs Yes+7500
CIN
@PIT
0.1u
11/16 6:00 PM
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
59
CAR +3.5-115
CAR
@
ATL
1u
11/16 6:00 PM
WEEK 11 LOOKAHEAD
Last week's Lookahead pick was one of my favorite of the season — Lions -3 in a revenge spot against an ailing Washington squad. That pick is looking pretty tasty a week later with Jayden Daniels out.
This week's Lookahead is a bit less aggressive, but it's all about the spot.
We started our day in Berlin long ago with the Falcons and Colts, but now Atlanta has to cross six time zones to return home for a game without a bye week.
When teams return from an international game with no bye, those tired teams have tied or trailed in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 following games. That tells us Atlanta should at least leave the door open for Carolina late.
The Panthers have won six of 11 against Atlanta, and seven of those 11 were one-score games, so this division rivalry is usually close. Road dogs of between three and seven points are 56.4% in division games over the last two decades, so this is a good spot to back Carolina, whose stout run defense may hold up against Atlanta.
I make this closer to a toss-up and the line may head that direction if Sunday's results go as expected, with Atlanta losing big to start the morning and Carolina getting a big win over the Saints.
If that happens, Atlanta will be on a four-game losing streak while the Panthers will have won five of six and fully entered the playoff race, and there's no way this stays above the key number. Grab Panthers +3.5 while it's available.
152
CAR +4-110
CAR
@ATL
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
🔥 Week 11 Hot Read 🔥
Sunday went as expected and falcons are in an even worse spot now. Doubling down, adding ML
94
CAR +175
CAR
@ATL
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
🔥 Week 11 Hot Read 🔥
Sunday went as expected and falcons are in an even worse spot now. Doubling down, adding ML
134
R.Dowdle 24+ Rushing Attempts Yes+261
CAR
@ATL
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
50
R.Dowdle o21.5 Rush Att+155
CAR
@ATL
0.5u
11/16 6:00 PM
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
63
R.Dowdle o139.5 Rush Yds+600
CAR
@ATL
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
59
R.Dowdle o159.5 Rush Yds+950
CAR
@ATL
0.1u
11/16 6:00 PM
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
60
R.Dowdle o179.5 Rush Yds+1720
CAR
@ATL
0.1u
11/16 6:00 PM
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
48
R.Dowdle o199.5 Rush Yds+2500
CAR
@ATL
0.1u
11/16 6:00 PM
The Panthers were my pick on last week's Lookahead and again Sunday night on the Hot Read, both +3.5 and on the moneyline.
It's a terrible spot for Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off an exhausting overtime loss in Germany and now travel across six time zones with no bye week for another game, entering with a rest and travel disadvantage.
Teams coming off an international game without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 16 of 18 such games in the history of the NFL international series. Atlanta is tired, and its run defense was gashed all game in Berlin.
Carolina is better as an underdog. The Panthers want to run the ball, stop the run, and shorten the game. This is a great spot for them, especially since Atlanta's defense looks surprisingly gettable.
The Falcons ranked 3rd in DVOA on defense the first five games of the season but dropped to 14th since, and they're bottom five against the run. Atlanta ranks top five in most fantasy points, rushing yards, and RB TDs allowed to opponents.
Atlanta is specifically bad against inside runs, ranking dead last at 32nd EPA per play. That's where Carolina lives after investing heavily into its interior offensive line. The Panthers have built a power run game, with the third most inside runs in the league.
Over the last four games, the Falcons have allowed opposing RBs to average 32.3 carries for 160.5 yards a game, with at least 140 yards in three of those four.
All of that sets up for a huge game for Rico Dowdle.
Dowdle is the clear bell cow now for Carolina, taking over for Chuba Hubbard. He's taken 84% of Carolina's carries over the last two games since being named the clear starter. If he gets 84% of what Atlanta has allowed the last four games, that would mean 27 carries for 135 yards.
That's pretty in line with Dowdle's average in four games so far as the clear RB1 this season: 24 carries for 143 yards.
Unfortunately, books have mostly priced all of that into Dowdle's lines, around 20.5 carries and 89.5 yards, so we're going to have to skip the median outcomes, believe all the way, and get aggressive.
Start with just sheer volume. Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of four starts as RB1, and Atlanta's small defensive front invites volume. Bet 22+ carries at +155 and at least 24 at +261 at DraftKings.
If Dowdle gets that many carries, the yards should come too. He already has games this season with 130, 183, and 206 rushing yards.
Keep the Dowdle escalator going with 140+ rushing yards at +600 (bet365). That's right at the number he's averaging as RB1 and right around what Atlanta is allowing on average the last four games.
From there, we may as well take the escalator all the way to the top: 160, 180, and 200+ rushing yards at +950, +1720, and +2500 (DraftKings). Let's hope Dowdle has another monster game.
23
W.Marks Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
HOU
@
TEN
0.75u
11/16 6:00 PM
I really wanted to back Houston in this game. I trust the Texans defense against Cam Ward and the awful Titans, even after the bye.
But there are so many Texans injuries, chief among them C.J. Stroud, and the last seven meetings between these division rivals has seen just 35 PPG. That makes it tough to touch a spread of around a touchdown.
I do think the Texans score, though.
Houston's offensive struggles are no secret — but they haven't come against every team.
In four games against opponents ranked in the top half of the league by Defensive DVOA, the Texans average 15.5 PPG, failing to crack 20 points yet on the season. But in their other five games against bottom-half defenses, Houston leaps all the way to 28.4 PPG.
There's no question which of those Tennessee is. The Titans rank 25th on the season and are probably worse than that with injuries and transactions at this point.
So if Houston does score on this defense, with whatever bodies are out there, who will it be?
Probably Woody Marks.
Marks is the clear bell cow now in Houston, taking over for Nick Chubb, and he's already scored four touchdowns this season.
No team allows more touchdowns to opposing RBs than the Titans. In fact, Tennessee has allowed every opposing RB1 to find the endzone this season outside of just one game.
We're getting a discount price on an Anytime TD for Marks at +150 (BetMGM) because of the lack of faith in Houston. Bet on Woody Marks scoring a touchdown, and place a portion of your bet on two touchdowns at +1100 (FanDuel).
100
W.Marks 2+ TDs Yes+1100
HOU
@TEN
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
79
J.Jacobs o17.5 Rush Att-112
GB
@
NYG
0.5u
11/16 6:00 PM
from Action Network pod
77
J.Jacobs o21.5 Rush Att+236
GB
@NYG
0.25u
11/16 6:00 PM
from Action Network pod
56
T.Ferguson o12.5 Longest Reception-110
SEA
@
LA
0.5u
11/16 9:05 PM
Seahawks-Rams is the new Game of the Year of the week and it looks awesome.
These teams rank first and second in DVOA, with both offenses and defenses top six, and five of the last six meetings have finished within six points or less, two in overtime.
I lean Rams. They're playing at home with the QB I trust more — we haven't seen Sam Darnold in many negative scripts yet, and now he's on the road with a couple injured offensive linemen — and Seattle's rushing attack is perhaps the biggest weakness for either team.
If you feel good about a side, you should think about investing in that team's futures — for NFC 1-seed or to win the NFC or Super Bowl.
The most intriguing part of the matchup is Sean McVay's newfound love of 13 personnel.
If you're unfamiliar, "13" means one running back and three tight ends on the field, and McVay's Rams had run only 84 plays ever in 13 personnel in his first 137 games before everything changed over the last month.
Suddenly 40% of Rams plays have come in 13 over the last four games, including 45% on Sunday, the second highest by any team in any NFL game in the past decade. In those plays from 13 personnel, the Rams averaged 6.7 yards a play with 63% Success Rate and 20% explosives.
So why does it all matter?
The goal of 13 personnel is to play heavy and force the defense to match with fewer defensive backs. Mike Macdonald's defense prefers to play in nickel (five defensive backs) or dime (six), getting his team cadre of corners and safeties on the field and defending the pass.
But opponents have matched the Rams 13 personnel with some version of base defense — four defensive backs — on 93% of those snaps over the last four games. That typically means more linebackers on the field, and that's the weakest spot on Seattle's defense, especially with Ernest Jones banged up.
McVay is baiting opponents to put extra linebackers on the field, then attacking them with his tight ends. It's the ultimate chess game, and he's putting opponent after opponent in checkmate.
More 13 has meant more runs from Blake Corum and way fewer snaps and targets for Davante Adams and especially Puka Nacua. But as you might suspect, it's also meant more production from Rams tight ends.
Seattle has allowed the most catches to opposing tight ends and top five yards, and I'm looking at 6'5 Oregon rookie Terrance Ferguson.
Ferguson played only eight snaps the first five Rams games, but he's been on the field closer to a third of the snaps during this 13 personnel stretch. While Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson are playing more snaps, they're also playing almost twice as many run snaps as pass.
Ferguson is the passing weapon, with athleticism to stretch the field and attack. He has 11 targets on the season and 10 of them are classified as long, with an absurd 22.5 ADOT effectively double every other tight end in the league.
Ferguson has only five catches in his career, but they've gone for 18, 21, 31, 32, and 36 yards. He may only touch the ball once all game, but when he does, it's usually explosive.
Split your bet on Ferguson over 12.5 yards for longest catch (-115) and longest catch 20+ at +210, both at bet365. Every catch of his career cashes the first bet, so just one reception should do, and all but one cash the second. Seattle has already allowed eight 20-yard receptions to tight ends this season.
Three of Ferguson's five catches are 30+ yards so touch that too at +550 (bet365) for longest reception, but I'll also play 60+ total yards at +1000 in case he doesn't get one long catch but does get unleashed for a few big plays.
Could Terrance Ferguson be Sean McVay's secret weapon?
57
T.Ferguson o19.5 Longest Reception+210
SEA
@LA
0.5u
11/16 9:05 PM
Seahawks-Rams is the new Game of the Year of the week and it looks awesome.
These teams rank first and second in DVOA, with both offenses and defenses top six, and five of the last six meetings have finished within six points or less, two in overtime.
I lean Rams. They're playing at home with the QB I trust more — we haven't seen Sam Darnold in many negative scripts yet, and now he's on the road with a couple injured offensive linemen — and Seattle's rushing attack is perhaps the biggest weakness for either team.
If you feel good about a side, you should think about investing in that team's futures — for NFC 1-seed or to win the NFC or Super Bowl.
The most intriguing part of the matchup is Sean McVay's newfound love of 13 personnel.
If you're unfamiliar, "13" means one running back and three tight ends on the field, and McVay's Rams had run only 84 plays ever in 13 personnel in his first 137 games before everything changed over the last month.
Suddenly 40% of Rams plays have come in 13 over the last four games, including 45% on Sunday, the second highest by any team in any NFL game in the past decade. In those plays from 13 personnel, the Rams averaged 6.7 yards a play with 63% Success Rate and 20% explosives.
So why does it all matter?
The goal of 13 personnel is to play heavy and force the defense to match with fewer defensive backs. Mike Macdonald's defense prefers to play in nickel (five defensive backs) or dime (six), getting his team cadre of corners and safeties on the field and defending the pass.
But opponents have matched the Rams 13 personnel with some version of base defense — four defensive backs — on 93% of those snaps over the last four games. That typically means more linebackers on the field, and that's the weakest spot on Seattle's defense, especially with Ernest Jones banged up.
McVay is baiting opponents to put extra linebackers on the field, then attacking them with his tight ends. It's the ultimate chess game, and he's putting opponent after opponent in checkmate.
More 13 has meant more runs from Blake Corum and way fewer snaps and targets for Davante Adams and especially Puka Nacua. But as you might suspect, it's also meant more production from Rams tight ends.
Seattle has allowed the most catches to opposing tight ends and top five yards, and I'm looking at 6'5 Oregon rookie Terrance Ferguson.
Ferguson played only eight snaps the first five Rams games, but he's been on the field closer to a third of the snaps during this 13 personnel stretch. While Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson are playing more snaps, they're also playing almost twice as many run snaps as pass.
Ferguson is the passing weapon, with athleticism to stretch the field and attack. He has 11 targets on the season and 10 of them are classified as long, with an absurd 22.5 ADOT effectively double every other tight end in the league.
Ferguson has only five catches in his career, but they've gone for 18, 21, 31, 32, and 36 yards. He may only touch the ball once all game, but when he does, it's usually explosive.
Split your bet on Ferguson over 12.5 yards for longest catch (-115) and longest catch 20+ at +210, both at bet365. Every catch of his career cashes the first bet, so just one reception should do, and all but one cash the second. Seattle has already allowed eight 20-yard receptions to tight ends this season.
Three of Ferguson's five catches are 30+ yards so touch that too at +550 (bet365) for longest reception, but I'll also play 60+ total yards at +1000 in case he doesn't get one long catch but does get unleashed for a few big plays.
Could Terrance Ferguson be Sean McVay's secret weapon?
34
T.Ferguson o29.5 Longest Reception+550
SEA
@LA
0.25u
11/16 9:05 PM
Seahawks-Rams is the new Game of the Year of the week and it looks awesome.
These teams rank first and second in DVOA, with both offenses and defenses top six, and five of the last six meetings have finished within six points or less, two in overtime.
I lean Rams. They're playing at home with the QB I trust more — we haven't seen Sam Darnold in many negative scripts yet, and now he's on the road with a couple injured offensive linemen — and Seattle's rushing attack is perhaps the biggest weakness for either team.
If you feel good about a side, you should think about investing in that team's futures — for NFC 1-seed or to win the NFC or Super Bowl.
The most intriguing part of the matchup is Sean McVay's newfound love of 13 personnel.
If you're unfamiliar, "13" means one running back and three tight ends on the field, and McVay's Rams had run only 84 plays ever in 13 personnel in his first 137 games before everything changed over the last month.
Suddenly 40% of Rams plays have come in 13 over the last four games, including 45% on Sunday, the second highest by any team in any NFL game in the past decade. In those plays from 13 personnel, the Rams averaged 6.7 yards a play with 63% Success Rate and 20% explosives.
So why does it all matter?
The goal of 13 personnel is to play heavy and force the defense to match with fewer defensive backs. Mike Macdonald's defense prefers to play in nickel (five defensive backs) or dime (six), getting his team cadre of corners and safeties on the field and defending the pass.
But opponents have matched the Rams 13 personnel with some version of base defense — four defensive backs — on 93% of those snaps over the last four games. That typically means more linebackers on the field, and that's the weakest spot on Seattle's defense, especially with Ernest Jones banged up.
McVay is baiting opponents to put extra linebackers on the field, then attacking them with his tight ends. It's the ultimate chess game, and he's putting opponent after opponent in checkmate.
More 13 has meant more runs from Blake Corum and way fewer snaps and targets for Davante Adams and especially Puka Nacua. But as you might suspect, it's also meant more production from Rams tight ends.
Seattle has allowed the most catches to opposing tight ends and top five yards, and I'm looking at 6'5 Oregon rookie Terrance Ferguson.
Ferguson played only eight snaps the first five Rams games, but he's been on the field closer to a third of the snaps during this 13 personnel stretch. While Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson are playing more snaps, they're also playing almost twice as many run snaps as pass.
Ferguson is the passing weapon, with athleticism to stretch the field and attack. He has 11 targets on the season and 10 of them are classified as long, with an absurd 22.5 ADOT effectively double every other tight end in the league.
Ferguson has only five catches in his career, but they've gone for 18, 21, 31, 32, and 36 yards. He may only touch the ball once all game, but when he does, it's usually explosive.
Split your bet on Ferguson over 12.5 yards for longest catch (-115) and longest catch 20+ at +210, both at bet365. Every catch of his career cashes the first bet, so just one reception should do, and all but one cash the second. Seattle has already allowed eight 20-yard receptions to tight ends this season.
Three of Ferguson's five catches are 30+ yards so touch that too at +550 (bet365) for longest reception, but I'll also play 60+ total yards at +1000 in case he doesn't get one long catch but does get unleashed for a few big plays.
Could Terrance Ferguson be Sean McVay's secret weapon?
27
T.Ferguson 60+ Receiving Yards Yes+1000
SEA
@LA
0.1u
11/16 9:05 PM
Seahawks-Rams is the new Game of the Year of the week and it looks awesome.
These teams rank first and second in DVOA, with both offenses and defenses top six, and five of the last six meetings have finished within six points or less, two in overtime.
I lean Rams. They're playing at home with the QB I trust more — we haven't seen Sam Darnold in many negative scripts yet, and now he's on the road with a couple injured offensive linemen — and Seattle's rushing attack is perhaps the biggest weakness for either team.
If you feel good about a side, you should think about investing in that team's futures — for NFC 1-seed or to win the NFC or Super Bowl.
The most intriguing part of the matchup is Sean McVay's newfound love of 13 personnel.
If you're unfamiliar, "13" means one running back and three tight ends on the field, and McVay's Rams had run only 84 plays ever in 13 personnel in his first 137 games before everything changed over the last month.
Suddenly 40% of Rams plays have come in 13 over the last four games, including 45% on Sunday, the second highest by any team in any NFL game in the past decade. In those plays from 13 personnel, the Rams averaged 6.7 yards a play with 63% Success Rate and 20% explosives.
So why does it all matter?
The goal of 13 personnel is to play heavy and force the defense to match with fewer defensive backs. Mike Macdonald's defense prefers to play in nickel (five defensive backs) or dime (six), getting his team cadre of corners and safeties on the field and defending the pass.
But opponents have matched the Rams 13 personnel with some version of base defense — four defensive backs — on 93% of those snaps over the last four games. That typically means more linebackers on the field, and that's the weakest spot on Seattle's defense, especially with Ernest Jones banged up.
McVay is baiting opponents to put extra linebackers on the field, then attacking them with his tight ends. It's the ultimate chess game, and he's putting opponent after opponent in checkmate.
More 13 has meant more runs from Blake Corum and way fewer snaps and targets for Davante Adams and especially Puka Nacua. But as you might suspect, it's also meant more production from Rams tight ends.
Seattle has allowed the most catches to opposing tight ends and top five yards, and I'm looking at 6'5 Oregon rookie Terrance Ferguson.
Ferguson played only eight snaps the first five Rams games, but he's been on the field closer to a third of the snaps during this 13 personnel stretch. While Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson are playing more snaps, they're also playing almost twice as many run snaps as pass.
Ferguson is the passing weapon, with athleticism to stretch the field and attack. He has 11 targets on the season and 10 of them are classified as long, with an absurd 22.5 ADOT effectively double every other tight end in the league.
Ferguson has only five catches in his career, but they've gone for 18, 21, 31, 32, and 36 yards. He may only touch the ball once all game, but when he does, it's usually explosive.
Split your bet on Ferguson over 12.5 yards for longest catch (-115) and longest catch 20+ at +210, both at bet365. Every catch of his career cashes the first bet, so just one reception should do, and all but one cash the second. Seattle has already allowed eight 20-yard receptions to tight ends this season.
Three of Ferguson's five catches are 30+ yards so touch that too at +550 (bet365) for longest reception, but I'll also play 60+ total yards at +1000 in case he doesn't get one long catch but does get unleashed for a few big plays.
Could Terrance Ferguson be Sean McVay's secret weapon?
45
T.McBride Anytime TD Scorer Yes+120
SF
@
ARI
0.75u
11/16 9:05 PM
San Francisco may finally have the injury edge in a game.
It looks like Brock Purdy should return at last, and maybe Ricky Pearsall as well, while Arizona is missing all sorts of bodies.
Will Johnson and Walter Nolan are doubts in defense, Kyler Murray is out, and the weapons on offense are down to practice squad guys with Marvin Harrison and Zay Jones out, along with Arizona's top three running backs.
About the only guy left is TE Trey McBride, and he's been an absolute superstar of late, finding incredible chemistry with Brissett.
In four games together, McBride has 32 catches for 328 yards and five scores. He has at least one touchdown in every Brissett game, and these last four games would pace to an all-time tight end season: 135 catches for 1,400 yards and 21 TDs.
McBride should get plenty of opportunity with so many teammates out, and the 49ers defense is ripe for the picking. It's been especially poor over the middle and against the slot, and it has allowed three TDs to tight ends in just the last two games.
I looked at all of the McBride lines to invest, but his upside is mostly already priced in at receptions and yards.
Touchdowns are more unreliable, but Arizona should score on this defense, and McBride is easily its most likely TD threat. Bet on an Anytime TD at +120 (Fanatics), a gift price with a plus in front of it for a guy this hot.
In my Extra Point this week, I recommended McBride too — as the season leader for receiving touchdowns at +8000 (Caesars).
Davante Adams leads with nine, a clear favorite with his red zone abilities, but he's playing with an oblique injury. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Dallas Goedert otherwise are ahead of McBride's six TDs, so if he keeps up this scoring pace with Brissett, he should be in the mix.
63
J.Jeudy o39.5 Rec Yds-110
BAL
@
CLE
0.75u
11/16 9:25 PM
This game looks pretty ugly.
On a weekend full of blustery weather, this one could get the worst of it — low 40s and winds in the 20s, with a low total and an ugly game expected.
These longtime rivals have split the season series six of the last seven years, so don't be surprised if Cleveland's stout defense helps the Browns hang around more than you think. If you disagree, Ravens team total over 23.5 is a gift — the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in every Lamar Jackson win the last two seasons.
That weather may mean a lack of passing, but I'm still looking at a Browns pass catcher, presumed WR1 Jerry Jeudy.
Cleveland turned over its offense to OC Tommy Rees during its bye week, and he made his intentions for the offense pretty clear in his first game calling plays against the Jets last week.
The Browns threw 25 passes in the first half; 11 of them were directed toward Jeudy. That's a huge target load, 44% of the passes, and he had his best half of the season with five catches for 66 yards and a score.
Rees made it clear he wants to get the ball to the one star talent in his receiving corps, so I'm following the hunch and investing before lines adjust.
The Ravens have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season and the second most receptions per game at 13.8. Even as the defense has improved, opponents are passing on them.
Jeudy hasn't had a great season, but even in an off year, he's still had at least 43 yards receiving in over half his games, five of nine. That makes his over 39.5 yards a no brainer at DraftKings (-110).
He's only hit 60 yards twice this season but has still done so in 10 of his last 19 outings, again over half, so 60+ yards at +243 is worth part of the bet, too.
The weather and game conditions could make a huge yardage total tough to come by, especially since Dillon Gabriel can't get the ball down the field, so perhaps just reception volume is in play.
Jeudy has at least six receptions in eight of his last 18 games, almost half, but the target share is key. When he gets double-digit targets like he did last week in the first half alone, he's had at least six catches in seven of his last eight games.
If the targets are there, the volume should be too. Bet 6+ Jeudy receptions at +350 (bet365) and let's hope Rees continues to build the offense around his best playmaker.
64
J.Jeudy 60+ Receiving Yards Yes+243
BAL
@CLE
0.25u
11/16 9:25 PM
This game looks pretty ugly.
On a weekend full of blustery weather, this one could get the worst of it — low 40s and winds in the 20s, with a low total and an ugly game expected.
These longtime rivals have split the season series six of the last seven years, so don't be surprised if Cleveland's stout defense helps the Browns hang around more than you think. If you disagree, Ravens team total over 23.5 is a gift — the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in every Lamar Jackson win the last two seasons.
That weather may mean a lack of passing, but I'm still looking at a Browns pass catcher, presumed WR1 Jerry Jeudy.
Cleveland turned over its offense to OC Tommy Rees during its bye week, and he made his intentions for the offense pretty clear in his first game calling plays against the Jets last week.
The Browns threw 25 passes in the first half; 11 of them were directed toward Jeudy. That's a huge target load, 44% of the passes, and he had his best half of the season with five catches for 66 yards and a score.
Rees made it clear he wants to get the ball to the one star talent in his receiving corps, so I'm following the hunch and investing before lines adjust.
The Ravens have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season and the second most receptions per game at 13.8. Even as the defense has improved, opponents are passing on them.
Jeudy hasn't had a great season, but even in an off year, he's still had at least 43 yards receiving in over half his games, five of nine. That makes his over 39.5 yards a no brainer at DraftKings (-110).
He's only hit 60 yards twice this season but has still done so in 10 of his last 19 outings, again over half, so 60+ yards at +243 is worth part of the bet, too.
The weather and game conditions could make a huge yardage total tough to come by, especially since Dillon Gabriel can't get the ball down the field, so perhaps just reception volume is in play.
Jeudy has at least six receptions in eight of his last 18 games, almost half, but the target share is key. When he gets double-digit targets like he did last week in the first half alone, he's had at least six catches in seven of his last eight games.
If the targets are there, the volume should be too. Bet 6+ Jeudy receptions at +350 (bet365) and let's hope Rees continues to build the offense around his best playmaker.
J.Jeudy 6+ Receptions Yes+350
BAL
@CLE
0.25u
11/16 9:25 PM
This game looks pretty ugly.
On a weekend full of blustery weather, this one could get the worst of it — low 40s and winds in the 20s, with a low total and an ugly game expected.
These longtime rivals have split the season series six of the last seven years, so don't be surprised if Cleveland's stout defense helps the Browns hang around more than you think. If you disagree, Ravens team total over 23.5 is a gift — the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in every Lamar Jackson win the last two seasons.
That weather may mean a lack of passing, but I'm still looking at a Browns pass catcher, presumed WR1 Jerry Jeudy.
Cleveland turned over its offense to OC Tommy Rees during its bye week, and he made his intentions for the offense pretty clear in his first game calling plays against the Jets last week.
The Browns threw 25 passes in the first half; 11 of them were directed toward Jeudy. That's a huge target load, 44% of the passes, and he had his best half of the season with five catches for 66 yards and a score.
Rees made it clear he wants to get the ball to the one star talent in his receiving corps, so I'm following the hunch and investing before lines adjust.
The Ravens have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season and the second most receptions per game at 13.8. Even as the defense has improved, opponents are passing on them.
Jeudy hasn't had a great season, but even in an off year, he's still had at least 43 yards receiving in over half his games, five of nine. That makes his over 39.5 yards a no brainer at DraftKings (-110).
He's only hit 60 yards twice this season but has still done so in 10 of his last 19 outings, again over half, so 60+ yards at +243 is worth part of the bet, too.
The weather and game conditions could make a huge yardage total tough to come by, especially since Dillon Gabriel can't get the ball down the field, so perhaps just reception volume is in play.
Jeudy has at least six receptions in eight of his last 18 games, almost half, but the target share is key. When he gets double-digit targets like he did last week in the first half alone, he's had at least six catches in seven of his last eight games.
If the targets are there, the volume should be too. Bet 6+ Jeudy receptions at +350 (bet365) and let's hope Rees continues to build the offense around his best playmaker.
Under 44.5-110
KC
@
DEN
1u
11/16 9:25 PM
🔥 Week 11 Hot Read 🔥
218
Under 37.5+248
KC
@DEN
0.25u
11/16 9:25 PM
I took the Chiefs-Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft.
Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels at -0.31 EPA per play.
The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets or Giants or any number of others en route to 8-2.
They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards a play on 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season.
Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs.
Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year, and just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games the last two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27, just 32.0 PPG.
Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams rank top five in both first-half and second-half under too.
I still like under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: under 37.5 at +248 and under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range.
If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early.
Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under.
Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays.
Play the first quarter under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings.
If we hit that one, we'll be setup well for our full game unders too.
Under 9.5 (1Q)-110
KC
@DEN
1.25u
11/16 9:25 PM
Note: hard rock had 9.5, and that is meaningful from 8.5 so be sure to get that one if you can
I took the Chiefs-Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft.
Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels at -0.31 EPA per play.
The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets or Giants or any number of others en route to 8-2.
They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards a play on 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season.
Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs.
Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year, and just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games the last two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27, just 32.0 PPG.
Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams rank top five in both first-half and second-half under too.
I still like under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: under 37.5 at +248 and under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range.
If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early.
Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under.
Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays.
Play the first quarter under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings.
If we hit that one, we'll be setup well for our full game unders too.
Under 33.5+410
KC
@DEN
0.25u
11/16 9:25 PM
I took the Chiefs-Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft.
Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels at -0.31 EPA per play.
The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets or Giants or any number of others en route to 8-2.
They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards a play on 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season.
Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs.
Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year, and just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games the last two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27, just 32.0 PPG.
Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams rank top five in both first-half and second-half under too.
I still like under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: under 37.5 at +248 and under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range.
If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early.
Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under.
Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays.
Play the first quarter under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings.
If we hit that one, we'll be setup well for our full game unders too.
Pending
3-WAY PARLAY+633
1.5u
I have the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles all over 70% to win their watered-down divisions. That makes each of them a great standalone division bet: Houston +110, Kansas City -105, and Philadelphia -130. This is a great way to parlay three favorites together at +633, when I make the three parlayed about a coin flip.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-division-winner-picks-for-eagles-chiefs-texans
Kansas City Chiefs-105
2025 NFL AFC West - To Win
Philadelphia Eagles-130
2025 NFL NFC East - To Win
Houston Texans+110
2025 NFL AFC South - To Win
111
2-WAY PARLAY+190
0.5u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Tennessee Titans o5.5+110
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
New England Patriots o7.5-110
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
32
2-WAY PARLAY+102
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Cleveland Cavaliers-340
2025-26 NBA Central Division - To Win
Orlando Magic-165
2025-26 NBA Southeast Division - To Win
30
2-WAY PARLAY+538
0.5u
Kansas City Chiefs+150
2025 NFL AFC West - To Win
Good spot to buy in on Chiefs with Rashee healthy and offense hitting its stride while Denver and LAC stagger a bit
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions
Detroit Lions+155
2025 NFL NFC North - To Win
Lions playing as well as any team, even after KC loss. Division is tough but buying value. Detroit should be the favorite not GB, and probably at a minus number
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions
44
Chiefs to win from behind+215
KC
21
28
BUF
0.5u
FINAL 11/02
I see very little value betting the spread or moneyline in this one. Predicting coin flips is a losing endeavor.
We know this game will likely be back-and-forth, so can we predict the ebbs and flows?
The Bills have been much worse early in games.
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in the first half this season, but they're 5-2 ATS in the second half, and Josh Allen is 67% ATS in the second half for his career.
Could that mean a Chiefs 1H & Bills 2H SGP? Perhaps, but that feels like threading the needle and hoping halftime lands at the right moment.
These teams have met nine times with Allen and Mahomes. The Bills have led at some point in all nine matchups. In fact, both teams have had the lead in all but one of those matchups.
At DraftKings under Team Props > Comeback, we can bet on the Chiefs to win from behind at +215. That's my preferred way to bet on a Chiefs win — and it's hit in all five Mahomes wins against Buffalo.
If you like the Bills to win, history says that's a profitable way to bet Buffalo too. Heck, you could even just bet both together for either team to win from behind and profit historically.
52
Both teams to score in 4q-190
KC
21
28
BUF
1u
FINAL 11/02
If we think this is back-and-forth and close late, we can bet on that too.
We almost always get fireworks late in this rivalry.
Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in all but one matchup, a playoff game. And at most books, we can bet that!
You can bet "Both teams to score in the fourth quarter" at -190 at bet365. That may feel steep but an implied 65% is well short of the actual hit rate of 89% so far in the rivalry.
If you don't like betting the juice standalone, that's also addable as a parlay leg at many books.
There's another way to bet on a close game late.
The last six Chiefs-Bills matchups were decided by three, nine, three, three, four, and six points.
The six came in overtime, meaning regulation ended at zero. The nine was actually a two-point game with two minutes left until Allen ripped off an incredible 26-yard TD run through the entire defense to win MVP and put the game away.
Basically, history tells us this is a tie or field goal game late and likely ends that way — so let's bet it!
Build an SGP of Chiefs +6.5 and Bills +6.5 to play neither team to win by at least seven points. You can bet that at +107 at FanDuel.
If you're a regular reader and you think these bets sound familiar, it's because they should! We bet them almost every Chiefs-Bills game because they hit almost every time. And that brings us to my favorite prop on the board: Josh Allen rushing overs.
28
Neither team to win by 7++107
KC
21
28
BUF
1u
FINAL 11/02
If we think this is back-and-forth and close late, we can bet on that too.
We almost always get fireworks late in this rivalry.
Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in all but one matchup, a playoff game. And at most books, we can bet that!
You can bet "Both teams to score in the fourth quarter" at -190 at bet365. That may feel steep but an implied 65% is well short of the actual hit rate of 89% so far in the rivalry.
If you don't like betting the juice standalone, that's also addable as a parlay leg at many books.
There's another way to bet on a close game late.
The last six Chiefs-Bills matchups were decided by three, nine, three, three, four, and six points.
The six came in overtime, meaning regulation ended at zero. The nine was actually a two-point game with two minutes left until Allen ripped off an incredible 26-yard TD run through the entire defense to win MVP and put the game away.
Basically, history tells us this is a tie or field goal game late and likely ends that way — so let's bet it!
Build an SGP of Chiefs +6.5 and Bills +6.5 to play neither team to win by at least seven points. You can bet that at +107 at FanDuel.
39
Josh Allen 10+ rushing attempts+375
KC
21
28
BUF
1u
FINAL 11/02
The Bills consistently save Josh Allen's legs for the biggest games.
The numbers don't lie. You can go back through the game log any year, circle the big games on the schedule, and voila, Allen's rushing numbers magically spike in those games.
It's happened already this season. Look at Buffalo's schedule. What are its biggest games so far? Baltimore in the opener, before the Ravens crashed, and the big division game against New England.
Allen averaged 11.5 rushing attempts per game in those two matchups — and just 5.2 against the rest of the schedule.
That's pretty close to what we've seen against the Chiefs through nine games: Allen averages 10.3 rushing attempts per game for 45 yards, a significant boost from 6.8 attempts per game for his career (and even higher in playoff matchups).
These teams rank second and third in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season, behind only Dallas.
Buffalo has already faced Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, and TyRod Taylor, so that may not mean much. Patrick Mahomes has gone over his posted 26.5 rushing yards line in six of eight games this season, but his rushing stats have been inconsistent in these Buffalo games. I don't mind it but don't need it.
The Chiefs have allowed the most rushing attempts to quarterbacks of any team in the NFL at 50 already, 6.3 per game. Five QBs have rushed at least six times, and five have run for at least 27 yards. They've also allowed three short TD runs to QBs.
So do we bet Allen for rushing attempts, yards, or any anytime touchdown… how about all three?!
At 35.5 rushing yards (-114, BetRivers), Allen's line is bumped from its usual but still not high enough. He's run for at least 32 yards in all nine Chiefs games, giving us an incredible floor. Allen has at least 50 rushing yards in over half of his Chiefs matchups (5 of 9), so that's worth playing too at +190 (bet365).
I like rushing attempts even better. Allen has at least eight rushing attempts in all but one Chiefs game, and he had seven in that one. We're getting plus money on over 7.5 rushing attempts (+102, FanDuel) so that's a no brainer, and 10+ attempts at +375 (bet365) may be my favorite bet of the entire bunch. Allen has double-digit rushing attempts in seven of nine Chiefs games (78%)!
And when Allen does run eight times, he almost always finds the endzone as a runner too.
Since the start of last season, Allen has an Anytime TD in 15 of 19 games (79%) when he has at least eight rushing attempts, and he's had multiple scores in eight of those 15. In a game with a total in the 50s, an Anytime TD bet at +115 (Fanatics) is an easy click, and 2+ TDs is even juicier at +800 (FanDuel).
44
6-WAY PARLAY+851
0.25u
Week 11 Pick Six NFL ML parlay
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-11-moneyline-predictions-picks
NE -900
NYJ
14
27
NE
FINAL 11/14
GB -355
GB
@NYG
11/16 6:00 PM
HOU -300
HOU
@TEN
11/16 6:00 PM
PIT -250
CIN
@PIT
11/16 6:00 PM
BUF -270
TB
@BUF
11/16 6:00 PM
CAR +152
CAR
@ATL
11/16 6:00 PM
138
DET +3-110
DET
@
PHI
1u
11/17 1:20 AM
For all the talk about Rams-Seahawks, this game could wind up just as important in the NFC.
We already know both these teams are built for the playoffs, having seen them each go on deep runs. Playoff football is about running the ball and playing defense, exactly what these teams have built their identities around.
Right now, though, Detroit is better at both.
The Lions defense has been outstanding this season, top five by DVOA. The Eagles are coming off one of their best performances of the season in defense after adding Jaelan Phillips, but Philadelphia is still just 13th in DVOA on the season.
As for the rushing attacks, the Lions appear to have the advantage both ways.
Detroit ranks 6th in DVOA running the ball while the Eagles rank just 21st in defense. Flip it around and the Eagles are a surprising 22nd by DVOA rushing, while the Lions rank 7th.
Saquon Barkley just hasn't hit those explosives this season, and four of five Eagles linemen are on the injury report. That line hasn't been as good as it was in past years.
For all the talk about Philadelphia's improvement, Detroit also took a big step last week. Dan Campbell took over play calling, and the impact was immediately apparent.
The Lions rank top three by EPA per play in both motion and playaction plays, and they immediately used more motion with Campbell and nearly doubled their playaction calls. That could be a huge problem for the Eagles, since they rank 29th by EPA per play defending playaction.
Both sides have important injuries, and it's never fun backing Jared Goff on the road in a windy environment, but Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball, with superior special teams and coaching. The Lions are also a luck side in our Luck Rankings.
Grab Lions +3 while it's there (ESPN Bet) at the key, or best number available.
I actually make the Lions the favorite, so I'm inclined to bet on a win too. Just the moneyline isn't enticing enough, but Detroit has won nine straight games by at least six points so let's place a portion of the bet on Lions -5.5 alt at +246 (DraftKings).
The futures angle here is clear — bet MVP for the QB on the team you expect to win.
The MVP race still appears to be wide open. Quarterbacks on top-two seeds win this award, so the prices for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen appear way off with their teams in the wildcard race, and upstart Drake Maye has the MVP target on his back now.
The Eagles enter the weekend at 52% to be a top-two seed, while the Lions are at 40%. Whichever team wins will be in contention with the Rams-Seahawks winner for the top spot in the NFC, and that could be the kingmaker spot.
Hurts is on pace for 4,000 yards and 40 TDs including rushing, with only two interceptions. Goff is on pace for 4,200 yards passing with 38 TDs and six picks, and his passing rate went up with Campbell calling plays.
The Lions still have a number of marquee games on the schedule — Packers on Thanksgiving, Cowboys the following Thursday night, a huge late afternoon game against the Rams, and the Vikings on Christmas. The Lions will be favored in every game the rest of the season except that Rams one — an obvious narrative revenge spot against his old team.
Hurts and Goff are priced similarly for MVP to guys like Justin Herbert playing with no offensive line, Baker Mayfield whose entire supporting cast is injured, and Lamar Jackson who has under a 3% shot at a top-two seed.
If we like the Lions, we have to like Goff for MVP too in a wide open race. That's the ultimate Lions escalator on Sunday night at +3000 (ESPN Bet).
DET -5.5+246
DET
@PHI
0.25u
11/17 1:20 AM
For all the talk about Rams-Seahawks, this game could wind up just as important in the NFC.
We already know both these teams are built for the playoffs, having seen them each go on deep runs. Playoff football is about running the ball and playing defense, exactly what these teams have built their identities around.
Right now, though, Detroit is better at both.
The Lions defense has been outstanding this season, top five by DVOA. The Eagles are coming off one of their best performances of the season in defense after adding Jaelan Phillips, but Philadelphia is still just 13th in DVOA on the season.
As for the rushing attacks, the Lions appear to have the advantage both ways.
Detroit ranks 6th in DVOA running the ball while the Eagles rank just 21st in defense. Flip it around and the Eagles are a surprising 22nd by DVOA rushing, while the Lions rank 7th.
Saquon Barkley just hasn't hit those explosives this season, and four of five Eagles linemen are on the injury report. That line hasn't been as good as it was in past years.
For all the talk about Philadelphia's improvement, Detroit also took a big step last week. Dan Campbell took over play calling, and the impact was immediately apparent.
The Lions rank top three by EPA per play in both motion and playaction plays, and they immediately used more motion with Campbell and nearly doubled their playaction calls. That could be a huge problem for the Eagles, since they rank 29th by EPA per play defending playaction.
Both sides have important injuries, and it's never fun backing Jared Goff on the road in a windy environment, but Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball, with superior special teams and coaching. The Lions are also a luck side in our Luck Rankings.
Grab Lions +3 while it's there (ESPN Bet) at the key, or best number available.
I actually make the Lions the favorite, so I'm inclined to bet on a win too. Just the moneyline isn't enticing enough, but Detroit has won nine straight games by at least six points so let's place a portion of the bet on Lions -5.5 alt at +246 (DraftKings).
The futures angle here is clear — bet MVP for the QB on the team you expect to win.
The MVP race still appears to be wide open. Quarterbacks on top-two seeds win this award, so the prices for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen appear way off with their teams in the wildcard race, and upstart Drake Maye has the MVP target on his back now.
The Eagles enter the weekend at 52% to be a top-two seed, while the Lions are at 40%. Whichever team wins will be in contention with the Rams-Seahawks winner for the top spot in the NFC, and that could be the kingmaker spot.
Hurts is on pace for 4,000 yards and 40 TDs including rushing, with only two interceptions. Goff is on pace for 4,200 yards passing with 38 TDs and six picks, and his passing rate went up with Campbell calling plays.
The Lions still have a number of marquee games on the schedule — Packers on Thanksgiving, Cowboys the following Thursday night, a huge late afternoon game against the Rams, and the Vikings on Christmas. The Lions will be favored in every game the rest of the season except that Rams one — an obvious narrative revenge spot against his old team.
Hurts and Goff are priced similarly for MVP to guys like Justin Herbert playing with no offensive line, Baker Mayfield whose entire supporting cast is injured, and Lamar Jackson who has under a 3% shot at a top-two seed.
If we like the Lions, we have to like Goff for MVP too in a wide open race. That's the ultimate Lions escalator on Sunday night at +3000 (ESPN Bet).
Chiefs-Broncos 0-0 first quarter exact outcome+700
KC
@DEN
0.25u
11/16 9:25 PM
I took the Chiefs-Broncos under 44.5 on the Hot Read on Sunday night, and though the line hasn't moved in our favor, I still love the spot and am back to bet the mineshaft.
Denver remains lucky and largely fraudulent. We all watched it last Thursday against the Raiders, when Denver had a paltry 220 yards for 3.9 yards a play on 37% Success Rate. Bo Nix continues to play with training wheels at -0.31 EPA per play.
The Broncos had no business winning that game, nor against the Jets or Giants or any number of others en route to 8-2.
They did, though, largely because the defense is so good. Even without Patrick Surtain, Denver held Las Vegas to 188 yards and 3.2 yards a play on 32% Success Rate. Outside of the obvious outlier game against Dallas, Denver games sit at just 37.8 PPG on the season.
Vance Joseph's defense has struggled against many top offenses, but it's been outstanding against the Chiefs.
Denver held Kansas City to its two lowest point totals of the season last year, and just look at the totals in Broncos-Chiefs games the last two seasons: 38, 33, 30, and 27, just 32.0 PPG.
Both teams prefer to go on long drives and shorten the game, especially in neutral or leading states, and Denver is the NFL's top unders team at 7-3, with the Chiefs close behind at 6-3 to the under. Both teams rank top five in both first-half and second-half under too.
I still like under 44.5 if you haven't played, but given how low those totals have been recently, I'll add on and play a mineshaft too: under 37.5 at +248 and under 33.5 at +410 (bet365), with both of those slightly above key numbers in that range.
If we're right about a low-scoring game, we'll definitely want to be right early.
Neither of these teams has seen much excitement in the opening quarter so far this season. Chiefs games have seen first quarter totals of 7, 7, 3, 10, 7, 9, 7, 0, and 7 points — never above 10, with an average of 6.3 PPG. Chiefs games are 8-1 to the first quarter under.
Denver games haven't been much better at 8.8 PPG in the first quarter, and the offense is at fault. The Broncos rank dead last in series conversion rate on their first two drives at 20%, showing how little trust Sean Payton has in his wayward offense on those early scripted plays.
Play the first quarter under 8.5 (-110, FanDuel), and 7.5 should be fine since it's really hard to hit exactly eight in the first quarter. Let's also take it one step further and bet on a scoreless first quarter, a 0-0 outcome at +700 at DraftKings.
If we hit that one, we'll be setup well for our full game unders too.
DET -9.5-110
NYG
@DET
1.5u
11/23 6:00 PM
WEEK 12 LOOKAHEAD
Nothing super fancy here. I probably don't need to work too hard to tell you why to like the Lions over the Giants.
It's the line that's the play here, with FanDuel still offering Lions -9.5 while books like DraftKings are already at -11.5. Ten can still be a key number, and it wouldn't be shocking to see this line push 13 or 14 by kickoff with teaser protection.
I like the Lions to beat the Eagles on Sunday night — see above — and the Giants should struggle with the Packers in a bad matchup for Jameis Winston. That leaves a bad team missing its top QB, RB, and WR against a bona fide Super Bowl contender in Detroit, and no more dead cat bounce coming off firing its coach either.
The Giants run defense is key here.
New York ranks dead last in run defense by both DVOA and EPA per play. The Giants simply haven't stopped opposing runners all season, especially on outside runs where Jahmyr Gibbs thrives. Detroit should run all over the Giants.
This line is about what I'd make it in New York, but it should be closer to two TDs in Detroit. Nine straight Lions wins have come by six or more points, so this isn't asking for much more.
Grab Lions -9.5 (FanDuel) while it's available.
Bears TDs leader: Roschon Johnson+4000
0.5u
I'm looking at Ben Johnson and what do Ben Johnson's offenses do?
They run the ball into the end zone. Look no further than what David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been up to the last few years. That duo has combined for an absurd 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league.
All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. Give me all the vulture TDs.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey
Bucs, Colts 1st & Saints, Browns last in division+170
0.5u
It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions
Bucs, Colts, Lions, Seahawks 1st & Saints, Browns last in division+1672
0.25u
It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions
Bucs, Colts 1st & 49ers 3rd & Saints, Browns last in division+617
0.25u
It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions
Ja’Marr Chase most receiving yards+550
0.25u
This one looks fun and high scoring, so I'm ready to invest.
The Bengals defense ranks dead last by DVOA and has been especially bad defending the run, and Pittsburgh's pass defense just got shredded a month ago when these teams met.
Ja'Marr Chase was the main culprit with a monster game: 16 catches for 161 yards on 23 targets.
He's been on a torrid pace, with 91+ yards in five straight games and a pace of 170/1938 over that stretch. Chase is only 210 yards behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Bengals will be passing all season with their awful defense and inviting schedule, so I'm buying in on Chase to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Unfortunately, if we want to bet Chase this week, we'll have to pay through the nose — something in the range of nine catches or almost 100 yards at even money. That's a tough sell especially in a windy game, and rather than turning to more aggressive alts, I'll pivot to his teammate.
Tee Higgins has also been great playing with Joe Flacco, averaging 4.8 catches for 81 yards and a score in four games, and he was good in that game against Pittsburgh too with six catches for 96 yards and a TD.
We all know how good Chase was against Pittsburgh last time. That means the Steelers do too, so maybe their extra attention toward him will leave Higgins open for some big ones. Play Higgins 80+ receiving yards at +230 and 100+ yards at +500 (bet365) at bargain prices, balancing out those high Chase lines.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to run plenty on Cincinnati.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the season, along with the most rushing attempts and yards. The last six bell cow RB1s against Cincinnati have averaged 18.3 carries for 124 yards, with Jaylen Warren one of those guys and right at those averages at 16 carries for 127 yards against the Bengals.
That was his best game of the season, but it was also his only game over 71.5 yards, his posted rushing line. Skip the median outcome and play the alts in case the big game repeats itself: 100 yards at +310 and 120+ at +700 (bet365).
If you're thinking Anytime TD too for Warren, that makes sense — the Bengals have allowed at least one RB touchdown in all but one game this season. But with Warren priced at -150 for a score and having scored in only two of eight games this season, that's just too steep.
Instead, like with Chase and Higgins, we'll pivot to a secondary option.
Kenneth Gainwell has six carries this season inside the 10 yard line, scoring a TD on three of them. He's more of the receiving back but is still playing over a third of the snaps, and he can always catch a score to cash our bet too.
Gainwell is an excellent pivot from Warren at +470 for an Anytime TD (FanDuel), and with two TDs priced at +7500 at bet365, we'd be crazy not to sprinkle.
Trey McBride receiving TDs leader+8000
0.25u
Week 11 Extra Point:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-11-moneyline-predictions-picks
Most wins: Ravens+900
0.5u
For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not?
Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers.
When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score.
Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play.
And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40.
The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team.
Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right?
It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think.
The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard.
But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far.
The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home.
I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else.
That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed.
Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw.
But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less.
It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened.
The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN.
That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last.
FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed.
Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie.
Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.
Last winless team: Saints+850
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
NFC 16 seed: Saints+225
1u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
AFC 16 seed: Browns+225
1u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Laat in division: Browns-300
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Giants u14.5 seed NFC+120
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Panthers 2-0 H2H vs Saints+165
1u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Jets TD leader: Braelon Allen+1400
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Lions TD leader: David Montgomery+1400
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Browns TD leader: Jerome Ford+1600
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Chiefs 1, Raiders 2 exact AFC West finish+1400
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Steelers exact stage of elimination: Wildcard Rd+290
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Seahawks exact stage of elimination: Wildcard Rd+380
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Joe Burrow breaks NFL pass yards record+2200
0.25u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Rams: last in division+370
0.25u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Lions: last in division+450
0.25u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Bills Patriots top 2 AFC East-105
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Patriots 1, Bills 2 AFC East exact outcome+750
0.25u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Texans 6-0 vs AFC South+1300
0.25u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Most points scored: Ravens+800
0.25u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Dolphins receptions leader: Darren Waller+4000
0.25u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Most wins: 49ers+1300
0.5u
1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
49ers: 3rd place NFC West+450
0.75u
Bosa's loss is a huge deal for an already undermanned defensive line. Rookie Mykel Williams has been a difference maker in the run game but he may now see Bosa's usual double teams, and there are not much other pass-rush options outside of part-timer Bryce Huff.
The 49ers are already weak at defensive tackle and safety. I make Bosa worth over a point to the spread, leaving San Francisco no real defensive strength now outside of Fred Warner.
Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been great but has his work cut out for him. Bosa's loss drops the 49ers from a fringe top-10 defense to fringe bottom 10.
And remember that soft schedule? Upcoming games against the Jaguars and Colts look a bit tougher now than expected, and a stretch against the Jags, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Texans could mean more close games and maybe a few losses.
As great as it feels to be 3-0, the 49ers are only one game up on every other team in the NFC West. There's still very little separation or margin for error.
San Francisco doesn't get to catch its breath til a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers will just have to play through the injuries. And a wild-card spot is no certainty with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all sitting at 2-1 but outside the division lead in the stacked NFC.
It's not hard at all to envision the 49ers losing the NFC West. That looks like the league's toughest division, and I've got the Rams power rated clearly ahead of San Francisco right now.
FTN has the Niners are 77% to make the playoffs and 23% to miss. That implies slight value on a +380 ticket to miss at BetMGM, implied 21% — and that could be a nice ticket to build around if the slew of injuries continue. You can bet under 11.5 wins at even money as well.
How about taking it a step further?
If things go even a little bad, the 49ers could slip quickly in the NFC West. San Francisco is +450 to finish third in the division and +1100 to finish last (bet365). San Francisco could even cash one of those tickets and make the playoffs.
I bought 49ers futures back in February based on their long-tail upside, but it might be time to consider the long-tail downside with injuries piling up in a brutally tough division.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-futures-picks-predictions-ranking-which-undefeated-teams-could-miss-playoffs
49ers: 4th place NFC West+1100
0.75u
Bosa's loss is a huge deal for an already undermanned defensive line. Rookie Mykel Williams has been a difference maker in the run game but he may now see Bosa's usual double teams, and there are not much other pass-rush options outside of part-timer Bryce Huff.
The 49ers are already weak at defensive tackle and safety. I make Bosa worth over a point to the spread, leaving San Francisco no real defensive strength now outside of Fred Warner.
Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been great but has his work cut out for him. Bosa's loss drops the 49ers from a fringe top-10 defense to fringe bottom 10.
And remember that soft schedule? Upcoming games against the Jaguars and Colts look a bit tougher now than expected, and a stretch against the Jags, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Texans could mean more close games and maybe a few losses.
As great as it feels to be 3-0, the 49ers are only one game up on every other team in the NFC West. There's still very little separation or margin for error.
San Francisco doesn't get to catch its breath til a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers will just have to play through the injuries. And a wild-card spot is no certainty with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all sitting at 2-1 but outside the division lead in the stacked NFC.
It's not hard at all to envision the 49ers losing the NFC West. That looks like the league's toughest division, and I've got the Rams power rated clearly ahead of San Francisco right now.
FTN has the Niners are 77% to make the playoffs and 23% to miss. That implies slight value on a +380 ticket to miss at BetMGM, implied 21% — and that could be a nice ticket to build around if the slew of injuries continue. You can bet under 11.5 wins at even money as well.
How about taking it a step further?
If things go even a little bad, the 49ers could slip quickly in the NFC West. San Francisco is +450 to finish third in the division and +1100 to finish last (bet365). San Francisco could even cash one of those tickets and make the playoffs.
I bought 49ers futures back in February based on their long-tail upside, but it might be time to consider the long-tail downside with injuries piling up in a brutally tough division.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-futures-picks-predictions-ranking-which-undefeated-teams-could-miss-playoffs
Lamar Jackson to lead NFL in pass TDs+3000
0.25u
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes?
He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41.
Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.
Derrick Henry to lead NFL in rush yards+1400
0.25u
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down.
Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon.
Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons.
We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time.
It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.
AFC Championship: Ravens over Texans+3000
0.1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
NFC Championship: 49ers over Packers+5000
0.1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Trent Williams: Protector of the Year+1100
1u
New award!! Williams is one of the best to ever play on the offensive line. And even at age 37, he still hasn't lost a step. He is as good and as valuable as anyone when he's out there — and noticeably just as valuable when he's not.
Williams misses a few games each season but for an award without stats, that's probably not as important. He's arguably the most valuable player on the 49ers, a team capable of winning 12-plus games and making a push for the NFC 1-seed, and that's for a team without a clear MVP candidate, which makes this an excellent way of rewarding a great San Francisco season.
If nothing else, this could just be a legacy pick for Williams. Who better to win the first Protector of the Year award than the guy who plays the most valuable position on the line just about as well as anyone who's ever played it?
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds
Joe Thuney: Protector of the Year+4000
0.25u
New award!! Thuney is widely regarded as one of the league's best guards, and he's got an easy narrative case.
He already filled in admirably at both C and LT for the Chiefs en route to a Super Bowl berth last season — now he moves to the Bears, who could see a huge bump in line play and win profile. He might even get double credit if Kansas City's line falls off some without him.
Thuney has committed five penalties the last three seasons combined. In nine NFL seasons, he's played in six Super Bowls with four rings and four All-Pro berths — and two missed starts.
If Chicago makes a leap with an improved line, Thuney would be an excellent candidate at a pretty long number.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds
Creed Humphrey: Protector of the Year+3300
0.25u
New award!! There are two linemen at each position on the six-man panel, which means two centers — the one position there's not multiple of on the line. And with Frank Ragnow retired, Humphrey is probably the most surefire consensus best in the NFL at his position.
Many centers are great at run blocking, but Humphrey is one of the few who's also great at pass blocking. Life will be much harder this year without Joe Thuney next to him, though.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds
NFL Coach of the Year: DeMeco Ryans+6500
1u
If Houston does push to the top of the AFC, DeMeco Ryans will get credit for the defense and could even get this as something of a career achievement award for the three-year arc of a team that won just three games in 2022.
Ryans is certainly a longer shot, but he's also a great way to invest in a post-hype Texans team that's quietly become a bit underrated and overlooked.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds
NFL Coach of the Year: Brian Schottenheimer+3000
0.25u
POST PARSONS UPDATE: no longer interested in investing, cash out if possible
What if Schottenheimer is a decent or even good head coach? What if he puts together an innovative offense and utilizes exciting young names on his staff like Klayton Adams and Ken Dorsey? What if Matt Eberflus puts a talented defense back together?
Dallas could easily push for a division crown and then the sky's the limit in the NFC. This is a contrarian bet against myself. It's a great way to invest in the Cowboys this season at a supremely discounted price.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds
NFL Asst Coach of the Year: Zac Robinson+6000
0.5u
Robinson quietly did a terrific job coaxing an above average Offensive DVOA out of this team last year, considering he had to do so as a first-time playcaller with an old QB who couldn't move in Kirk Cousins and then a rookie debut in Michael Penix.
If Penix continues to improve and keeps hitting those deep shots all season, this could be an explosive offense and Robinson could be the next Ben Johnson — architect of a great offense and future head coach, the talk of the league.
Robinson is a bullseye for Assistant Coach of the Year, and this is a great way to bet on a high-end outcome for the Falcons
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds
NFL Asst Coach of the Year: Jesse Minter+3300
0.25u
Minter came with Jim Harbaugh from Michigan and worked wonders with an under-talented Chargers roster, turning them into one of the league's surprisingly great pass defenses. Minter mixed up coverages early on and got breakout seasons from young players like CB Tarheeb Still and LB Daiyan Henley.
The Chargers offense could struggle some this year with stud T Rashawn Slater out. If L.A.'s defense carries it back to the playoffs with another aggressive campaign, Minter will be a buzzy head coaching candidate and could very well win this award.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds
NFL Asst Coach of the Year: Kliff Kingsbury+2800
0.25u
Kingsbury did a great job adding creative run schemes to his playcalling, and he also called the plays that repeatedly helped the team convert in huge fourth downs all season, going a ridiculous 20-of-23.
What if Kingsbury and the offense keep that up with an even bigger step forward, but Daniels isn't ready for MVP quite yet?
Washington's defense is old and not great, so this would definitely be the side of the ball that gets credit. Kingsbury could be the perfect guy to get credit for a successful Commanders campaign, and he's got that failed head coach bounce-back narrative in his favor as well.
Read more:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds
Super Bowl: Ravens over 49ers+7000
0.1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Lamar Jackson MVP & Ravens win Super Bowl+2500
0.5u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
Jalen Green 23ppg-110
0.5u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Jalen Green 24ppg+200
0.5u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Jalen Green 25ppg+350
0.25u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Jalen Green 26ppg+700
0.15u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Jalen Green 27ppg+1800
0.1u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Jalen Green PPG leader+30000
0.1u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Anfernee Simons 3s leader+10000
0.5u
Jalen Green PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Anfernee Simons & Derrick White 4 3s/g+3000
0.25u
Anfernee Simons PPG escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Anfernee Simons 20ppg+250
1u
Anfernee Simons 3s escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Anfernee Simons 22ppg+800
0.25u
Anfernee Simons 3s escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Anfernee Simons 25ppg+2200
0.1u
Anfernee Simons 3s escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Zach Edey 10rpg+100
1u
Zach Edey reb escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Zach Edey 12rpg+1000
0.5u
Zach Edey reb escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Zach Edey RPG leader+20000
0.5u
Zach Edey reb escalator
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Victor Wembanyama BPG leader-280
1.4u
All the fun Wemby props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Victor Wembanyama more BPG than APG+170
0.5u
All the fun Wemby props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Victor Wembanyama 20 reb any game+200
1u
All the fun Wemby props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Victor Wembanyama 5x5 any game+340
3u
The ONE Wemby bet you NEED to bet this sn! I make this more like -600. Hammer play 🔨
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg o16.5ppg-110
2u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg 20ppg+500
0.5u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg 40pts any game+360
0.25u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg o6.1rpg-110
1.5u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg 15 reb any game+425
0.5u
Alllll the fun Cooper Flagg props!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Cooper Flagg 18ppg 6rpg+270
1.5u
If you only play 1 Flagg prop, this is my favorite!
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
Division with most wins: Pacific+500
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Timberwolves exact wins: 48-51+300
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Timberwolves exact wins: 52-55+370
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Thunder exact wins: 72-75+2500
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Hawks o5.5 seed+125
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Darko Rajakovic, NBA Coach of the Year+2500
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
SE division: Magic 1, Heat 2+850
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Erik Spoelstra, NBA Coach of the Year+4000
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Central division: Cavs 1, Pistons 2+158
0.75u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Cavs H2H wins vs Knicks-185
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Magic u3.5 seed+115
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Magic 1 seed+650
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Best record end of Nov: Magic+5000
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
Next NBA player to score 50: Cam Thomas+5000
0.1u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Sabonis 12rpg + Kings win 40++255
0.25u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Walker Kessler 12rpg+300
2u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Walker Kessler RPG leader +2000
0.25u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Tre Johnson, All Rookie Team+550
0.5u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Bulls to make play-in+220
0.25u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Bucks last in division+1300
0.1u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Avdija 23ppg & Blazers 40+ wins+2000
0.1u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Joel Embiid 28ppg 10rpg+140
0.75u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
41g minimum at DK or you get your cash back
Joel Embiid 28ppg 10rpg+140
0.75u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
41g minimum at DK or you get your cash back
Zion PPG leader+20000
0.1u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Zion Cup MVP+30000
0.1u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Edey 10rpg & Grizzlies win division+3000
0.25u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Dyson Daniels SPG leader+125
2u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Rockets to make play-in+850
0.5u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Draymond Green: All Defense+900
2u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Rudy Gobert: All Defense+950
1.5u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Jaren Jackson: All Defense+850
1.5u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Cam Johnson 3 3s/g & Jokic 28ppg & Nuggets title+3500
0.25u
NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣
At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀
Futures
A.J. Brown+5500
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
The Eagles were playing with a lead in almost every game, and that made them the run-heaviest team in the league in second halves.
It's natural to expect Philadelphia to come back to earth a little in 2025, and that should mean more passing opportunity for Brown.
Brown averages over 10 yards per target for his career and almost 16 yards per catch, insane efficiency metrics. He paced for 127 catches in 13 games last season, and he had a seven-game stretch the previous season with 120+ yards in every game and a pace for 2,355 yards.
With a pass-heavier script in Philadelphia, Brown has serious potential to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. He's also got an easy narrative story as potentially the sneaky-best receiver in the NFL that's been hiding behind a run-heavy offense.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
76
Brian Thomas+4000
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie. His final seven-game pace was for 121 catches, 1,640 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
He'd need to hit those numbers and then some to win this, but now he should get a big boost in a Liam Coen offense that helped Mike Evans and Chris Godwin put up monster numbers a year ago in Tampa Bay.
The arrival of Travis Hunter could take some targets from Thomas, but Jacksonville lost a ton of receptions to Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, so there should plenty of balls to go around from Trevor Lawrence. Hunter's presence could also leave Thomas in more frequent single coverage.
Jacksonville has a bad defense and poor run game and offensive line, so it really has to be the passing game if the Jaguars are to succeed. That could set Thomas up as this year's Ja'Marr Chase if everything clicks.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
72
Tyreek Hill+4000
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
Tyreek Hill finished top four in OPOY voting two years straight before falling off the map last season.
He's 31 now and we'll probably never get that Tyreek back, but I'd hate myself for passing on him at such a long number if I'm wrong.
This is a bet on both Tyreek and Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, so it's asking for a lot, but Tyreek has record-breaking talent if it's still in there somewhere.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
71
Christian McCaffrey+2200
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year
0.25u
I will break my own rules and place a small bet on McCaffrey — because he would be my outright favorite, and I'd place his odds closer to +800 or +1000 among the favorites and don't expect +2200 to be available later.
McCaffrey plays an incredibly soft schedule, and he consistently puts up elite numbers when healthy, so his OPOY season wasn't even really a significant outlier. McCaffrey is still only 29 and always pushes 2,000 scrimmage yards with his receiving abilities, and he has a great nose for the end zone and should score plenty for the 49ers.
McCaffrey has finished first, third and seventh in OPOY voting, and he has a cake schedule right out of the gates. It's impossibly tough to repeat as OPOY but there's too much value at +2200 to not add him to our position while that number is there (at Caesars).
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds
71
Mykel Williams+1400
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
Williams posted 4.5 or 5.0 sacks all three seasons as part of Georgia's rotation — just 14 total in three seasons — though he did add 23 tackles for losses. Those aren't overwhelming flash stats, but they're close enough to get a look as he moves into more of a feature role in the pros, especially since he can also slide inside and rush over the tackle. That could keep him on the field for all three downs.
Don't underestimate the coaching either. Saleh has great defensive chops, and Williams should also benefit from playing for legendary San Francisco defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who repeatedly coaxes big seasons out of his linemen. Maybe Williams will be his next success story.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
68
Carson Schwesinger+3500
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
He led the Big Ten with 90 tackles last year and also added four sacks and two interceptions. Cleveland is suddenly lacking linebacker options so Schwesinger should be a day one starter.
Maybe he puts up numbers similar to what Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did two years ago for Jim Schwartz, 101 combined tackles with two picks and 3.5 sacks. Schwesinger had a top-50 athleticism score among over 3,200 linebacker prospects since 1987, so he's elite at everything and can certainly make some big plays.
Schwesinger has had great reviews in the preseason and even had six tackles in 13 snaps one game.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds
74
Lamar Jackson+550
2025 NFL MVP
1u
Jackson has never lost more than five games in a season and he's proven he has the advanced metrics in addition to the ever-present flash and stats; his abilities as a runner also seem to scramble voters' brains so that even a potential dip in passing stats may not matter. Likewise his ongoing fumbling problem, when only interceptions seem to count front of mind.
There's also a very easy Jackson narrative.
True, he's yet to make that big playoff run, but there's also ubiquitous sentiment that Jackson was "robbed" of this award last year. That's a column for another day, but if Jackson and the Ravens lap the field again, voters will make no mistake about it this time around.
At the end of the day — and I can't believe I of all people am writing this — Jackson might simply be the age-old MVP formula: the best player on the best team in the regular season.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs
71
Brock Purdy+3000
2025 NFL MVP
0.25u
Purdy was in the mix two years ago before injuries derailed San Francisco's season, but he may have actually earned a modicum of respect with his play last season. With lesser weapons and less help around him, Purdy might actually get some credit.
The numbers and advanced metrics will be there in a Kyle Shanahan system — Purdy led the league in both EPA and EPA + CPOE in 2023, and he's over a 5% TD rate and almost 9.0 yards per attempt for his career.
There's also an obvious narrative in play for a guy who was Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick in the draft. Did Purdy take another leap? Is he a top-10 QB now?
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs
64
Spencer Rattler+8000
2025 NFL Regular Season - Most Interceptions Thrown
0.1u
exotics podcast long shot nibble
45
Ladd McConkey o950.5-130
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.3u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
55
Ladd McConkey o1249.5+250
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
32
Ladd McConkey o1499.5+700
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.2u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
35
J.J. McCarthy o24.5+105
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
1.2u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
55
J.J. McCarthy o29.5+225
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.6u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
28
J.J. McCarthy o34.5+550
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.2u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
26
A.J. Brown o1499.5+700
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.5u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
37
A.J. Brown+2800
2025 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.25u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
49
Jordan Love o23.5-120
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
1.75u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
60
Jordan Love o29.5+260
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
33
Jordan Love o34.5+650
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.25u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
31
Detroit Lions (No)+165
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
0.75u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
51
Washington Commanders (No)+130
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
0.75u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
53
Los Angeles Rams (No)+125
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
54
Arizona Cardinals (Yes)+140
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
50
Green Bay Packers (Yes)-130
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
2u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
37
New England Patriots (Yes)+154
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
51
Chicago Bears (Yes)+195
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
0.5u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
57
Houston Texans+115
2025 NFL AFC South - To Win
2u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
57
Kansas City Chiefs-105
2025 NFL AFC West - To Win
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
48
Cleveland Browns u5.5-130
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
45
Dallas Cowboys u7.5-120
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
38
Indianapolis Colts u7.5-120
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
47
Washington Commanders u9.5-106
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
55
Denver Broncos u9.5+115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers u9.5+100
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
46
Washington Commanders u7.5+320
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers u7.5+250
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
20
New England Patriots o8.5+115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
52
Detroit Lions u10.5-125
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
42
Houston Texans+4000
2025 NFL Superbowl - To Win
0.25u
1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams
49
Caleb Williams o3999.5+350
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing Yards
0.5u
Boost available today only at DK. The Bears have famously never had a 4000 yard passer, but Jared Goff averaged 4550 his 3 years with Ben Johnson and was never below 4438. If Caleb plays 17, this is a really bad number.
147
Chicago Bears+1300
2025 NFL NFC North - To Win
0.5u
🐻🏝️ For 3 quarters, it was all so beautiful.
Caleb Williams led Chicago to an opening drive touchdown, something it didn't do all last season, and the Bears were rolling early.
Williams showed vastly improved pocket presence and scrambling ability and got the ball to his playmakers quickly. Chicago moved the ball early and repeatedly got into field goal position, even confident and in control enough to go aggressively on a couple fourth downs.
The Bears added a pick-6 and led 17-6 into the fourth quarter in front of a rocking home crowd — and then it all went sideways.
Chicago played without LB T.J. Edwards and both its top corners, and when another corner went down mid-game, the seams busted open.
The Bears offense disappeared badly late, Caleb Williams couldn't hit a throw, and suddenly everything was awful, and all too familiar.
The advanced metrics for Williams weren't pretty. He finished with a 29% off-target rate, -8 completion percentage over expected, and a 46% accurate-throw rate, all bottom four in the NFL, and he airmailed several key throws.
Williams finished with five overthrows on the night, and now has 52 since the start of last season, a full 17 more than anyone else in the league, almost 50% higher! I'm not sure this was on Ben Johnson.
Johnson's head coaching debut left something to be desired. His challenge was poor, and his decision to kick deep was questionable at best.
Chicago also had 12 penalties for 127 yards — some questionable, but that's on coaching too. But Johnson called a brilliant opening drive to get Williams comfortable and in the end zone early, and he consistently schemed receivers open. Williams was just missing them.
Ben Johnson is not a fraud. He's an outstanding play caller, and we have three years of data to prove that. The Bears were up 7% playaction rate compared to last season and up 12% in pre-snap motion; the Lions without Johnson dropped by 13 and 23%, respectively.
The jury is still out on Williams. He showed clear improvement Monday night — his pocket presence and scrambling stood out, and he played more within himself and made fewer mistakes — but his accuracy leaves plenty to be desired, and there's a lot to fix.
That's not great news, but it's not death either. Remember, last year was basically a lost season for Williams and the Bears. That means Monday was effectively a debut, and that was a pretty solid debut for both QBs from that perspective.
FTN still gives Chicago 31% to make the playoffs, showing value at +270 (Caesars), and even gives the Bears a surprising 15% chance at the division, leaving clear value at +1300 (Caesars), an implied percentage under half that (7%).
Bear down? How about double down? Bears Island ain't sunk yet, and it's a great spot to invest with Ben Johnson's former team up next.
69
Baltimore Ravens-135
2025 NFL AFC North - To Win
1u
For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not?
Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers.
When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score.
Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play.
And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40.
The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team.
Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right?
It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think.
The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard.
But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far.
The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home.
I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else.
That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed.
Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw.
But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less.
It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened.
The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN.
That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last.
FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed.
Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie.
Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.
100
Las Vegas Raiders (Yes)+250
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1.5u
Heading into MNF Wk2, FTN has the Raiders at 58% to make the playoffs, best of any team in the division. The QB + coach upgrade was hugely apparent in the opener, and it’s a great spot at home Monday night and now maybe note Jayden Daniels next week, and a playoff spot just opened up with the Joe Burrow injury. 58% is a bit rich for me considering how bad this defense looks on paper, but that’s more than double +250 and this line hasn’t dropped even after Denver and Kansas City lost, and Cincinnati lost Burrow, and it was already valuable before that. Gotta take a swing now. Nibbling the long division price too at +900, implied 10%. Win tonight and they’re alone in first.
77
Las Vegas Raiders+900
2025 NFL AFC West - To Win
0.25u
Heading into MNF Wk2, FTN has the Raiders at 58% to make the playoffs, best of any team in the division. The QB + coach upgrade was hugely apparent in the opener, and it’s a great spot at home Monday night and now maybe note Jayden Daniels next week, and a playoff spot just opened up with the Joe Burrow injury. 58% is a bit rich for me considering how bad this defense looks on paper, but that’s more than double +250 and this line hasn’t dropped even after Denver and Kansas City lost, and Cincinnati lost Burrow, and it was already valuable before that. Gotta take a swing now. Nibbling the long division price too at +900, implied 10%. Win tonight and they’re alone in first.
67
Miami Dolphins+5000
2025 NFL AFC East - To Win
0.25u
Kitchen Sink Week YOLO nibble 🙃
Miami offense showed some signs of life, and if the Dolphins somehow escape Buffalo with a win, the next month of games against the Jets, Panthers and Browns suddenly looks very winnable. It feels crazy right now, but the NFL stands for Not For Long.
The Dolphins might be worth a tiny nibble at +5000 to win the AFC East (DraftKings), just in case they somehow pull the upset on Thursday are are suddenly one game back with a dangerous offense and a super winnable upcoming schedule.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-0-2-teams-ranked-playoff-chances-chiefs-bears-texans-more
43
Baker Mayfield+2500
2025 NFL Regular Season - Most Interceptions Thrown
0.25u
Everyone's buzzing about Baker Mayfield after two late-game comebacks and no interceptions yet, but Mayfield has been incredibly lucky to not throw a pick yet.
He leads the league with six Turnover Worthy Plays so far per PFF, tied with Bo Nix, who has looked about as bad as any starter. In fact, only six quarterbacks over half that many — an ugly list that includes Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, and J.J. McCarthy.
That makes this a great opportunity to buy low on a Baker Mayfield interception, a rare chance to get in at a plus number at +105 (bet365).
Mayfield led the league last year with 16 interceptions. He threw at least one interception in over half his games each of the past two seasons for the Bucs, 56% of them overall, and that about matches his lifetime number with at least one pick in 60-of-105 starts, a 57% hit rate. That should mean a clear minus number for interception odds, and we're getting plus money.
How about a little escalator, in case the regression all comes at once?
Mayfield is +525 to throw at least two interceptions (bet365). He did that five times last year even en route to the Bucs winning the division, and he's thrown at least two picks in 22-of-105 career starts, a 21% hit rate that should imply a number under +400.
Mayfield's teams are only 6-16 SU in those games with multiple interceptions. That makes sense, and since we're playing the Jets anyway, it's worth parlaying multiple interceptions with a Jets ML pick at +2275 (bet365) if your book allows it.
I also like betting Mayfield to lead the league in interceptions again at +2500 (bet365).
He just did that last year, and the season still has a long ways to go in a wonky market. The current leader in odds, Jake Browning, didn't even play Week 1 and may not start all season! Mayfield had 16 last year and also has seasons of 14 and 21, so he can close in a hurry. Buy the dip.
18
Houston Texans+300
2025 NFL AFC South - To Win
0.5u
Kitchen Sink Week: This remains a great opportunity to buy low on a championship defense and spine. If Caley can find some answers offensively and Stroud can get going, this could easily be a top-five team in the AFC.
But with the daunting schedule, it's pretty clear that the best path is the division — beating up on the Colts, Jaguars and Titans to accrue wins and take the easiest path to the playoffs: the AFC South.
Verdict: Buy the dip on the Texans. Trust the defense to get it done with the Jaguars and Titans next and invest in Houston as a +270 division winner — it's a a far better price than +130 to make the playoffs when the division is the best path.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-0-2-teams-ranked-playoff-chances-chiefs-bears-texans-more
45
Omarion Hampton+900
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.5u
Remember how the Giants were a sneaky top-10-potential defense? Turns out not so much. New York ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA so far and dead last against the run. The Giants are so bad against the rush that even the Chiefs were able to run on them!
This isn't new either. The Giants allowed almost 1900 rushing yards to RBs last season, fifth most in the NFL, with the median outcome for a lead RB at 87 yards, so over half the games! This season the Giants are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, and that's against Washington, Dallas, and Kansas City — not exactly a murderer's row of opposing running backs.
Volume is key here.
Since the start of last season, RBs with 14+ carries against the Giants are averaging 121 rushing yards. With Najee Harris out for the season, Hampton should see a huge workload under notoriously run-heavy OC Greg Roman. Hampton had 19 carries just last week even with Harris playing part of the game, and he had 23 carries the first two games even in a part-time role.
Play Hampton to go over 62.5 rushing yards (BetRivers), considering he hit that already last week with 70 yards against a far better defense despite playing part-time.
This is a great opportunity for a Hampton breakout game too. Six RBs hit 100 yards against the Giants last season, so let's play Hampton to do that at +475 (bet365). He's +1000 to make it to 120 rushing yards, right at that average outcome for RBs with 14+ carries against New York.
If Hampton does have a huge rushing game, we'll definitely want that Offensive Rookie of the Year ticket too at +900 (Circa).
I'm selling high on Emeka Egbuka with other Bucs WRs coming back and on Tyler Warren since a tight end has never won the award, and I'm not buying Dart with a rough upcoming schedule. This race feels open to some of the RBs slowly nudging themselves into a bigger role, and Hampton leads the pack.
If he has a big game against the Giants on Sunday, Omarion Hampton could wake up Monday morning as a Rookie of the Year favorite.
9
Seattle Seahawks (Yes)-115
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
0.75u
Seattle is my favorite side of Week 5.
I liked Seahawks -2.5 Sunday night when the line reopened. That disappeared quickly as this line his -3 and even -3.5 at most books, but I still like Seattle at the best number you can get. It sucks to lose the key number, but in this case the line move is because the Bucs have a barrage of injuries — and that only makes me like Seattle even more.
Mike Evans is out, and Chris Godwin is still rounding back into form off his long injury. The right side of the offensive line remains out too, with LT Tristan Wirfs still ramping back up. The secondary enters the week banged up too, so that means cluster injuries at the three toughest positions. It looks increasingly likely that dynamic RB Bucky Irving is limited or out too. Even Baker Mayfield is playing hurt.
Seattle, on the other hand, is playing on extended rest after a Thursday game, and I love this spot for the Seahawks. They have the better defense, the better offense so far, better coaching, and the far healthier team.
The Seahawks defense leads the league in DVOA, top three against both the run and the pass. Mike Macdonald's unit should get after Mayfield with all those Bucs O-line injuries, and Tampa has struggled to run the ball this season and may be without Irving.
Tampa's run defense has been terrific, but the Bucs are beatable against the pass with little pass rush and injuries in the secondary. And don't look now, but Seattle has the #2 passing offense by DVOA. Sam Darnold has been outstanding to start the season, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a breakout star.
The Seahawks also have about as big a special teams advantage as you can have in this one, first in DVOA by a wide margin while the Bucs are arguably the league's worst special teams unit, losing to Philly with a blocked punt TD and being hurt repeatedly in this overlooked area.
I really think folks are sleeping on Seattle right now, my No. 6 power rated team, and I think the Seahawks could even win by double digits. Six of Macdonald's 13 wins so far have been by double digits with Seattle, with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points.
Baker Mayfield is 17-26-1 ATS against teams over .500 (32%). Give me Seattle -3, and I'll place a portion of the bet on Seahawks -9.5 at +215 too (FanDuel).
I also love investing in Seahawks to make the playoffs (-115, ESPN Bet). This is the second-highest leverage game of the week per PFF, with Seattle 39% to make the playoffs with a loss here but 66% with a win. FTN already has Seattle at -200, so if you like the Seahawks in this game, you should grab a playoff ticket too.
29
New England Patriots (Yes)+172
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1u
The Bills are one of two 4-0 squads and it feels like that unbeaten record and the No. 1 spot in every power rankings is giving this team an overpriced bump.
Buffalo is 4-0, but what have the Bills really proven? They played the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints the last three games — winners of one game combined in September, against each other. The only win against a real team was Week 1 against the now 1-3 Ravens, which looks far less impressive in hindsight, especially since Buffalo was getting dominated for most of that game.
Josh Allen is 7-6 against the Patriots, by far his toughest division opponent and most losses against any team, and four straight Bills-Patriots games have finished within one score.
These Patriots might be better than you think. The offense is ahead of expectations, above average by DVOA and top quartile of the league passing, and that's almost entirely because of the development of Drake Maye. He looks like a star in the making and this could be a Sunday night coming out party, especially as Stefon Diggs continues to ramp up in his injury return and looks to show out against his old team.
New England's offense is ahead of schedule. This was supposed to be a defense-forward team, and the run defense has ranked top 10 by DVOA but the pass defense is bottom five. But now star young CB Christian Gonzalez is back, and one player doesn't fix everything, but his presence bumps Carlton Davis back to CB2 and gives this secondary an entirely different look.
It's not like the Bills defense has been that good. They're below average in many metrics, and the Pats will also have a pretty big special teams advantage with the way they've been returning kicks this season.
A handful of trends — some 2-2 ones, some division underdogs — support the Patriots here, but I don't necessarily love the way New England matches up with Buffalo's pass defense shell. Can the Pats run the ball well enough to shorten the game and keep it close?
Maybe, but if they're going to really contend here, it has to be a bet on Maye — and if I'm betting on Maye, I'm going all-in.
Mike Vrabel has covered 64% of his games as an underdog of at least three points, but here's the crazy part: he has a winning record in those games at 21-20 SU, with a 59% ROI on the moneyline. When he's at least a six-point dog, he's still coaching .500 ball at 7-7 somehow, with a remarkable 102% ROI on the moneyline.
Heavy favorites are dominating this weekend, but that might be buying us some value. Let's take a shot on the New England moneyline at +360 (BetMGM) and hope for a Sunday night shocker.
I'm also investing in a +172 ticket for the Patriots to miss the playoffs (FanDuel).
Only nine AFC teams are 2-2 or better right now like New England, and one of those is the fake Bengals. That might mean only eight teams for seven spots in the AFC, maybe the winner of the Ravens-Texans game, and that's only if the 3-1 Steelers, Colts, and Jaguars all stay in the picture too.
Normally, we'd wait and invest in the Patriots after such a big underdog spot, but if New England wins this game, we're never seeing +172 again. This is the highest leverage game on the schedule this week, but the leverage is all upset for us as Patriots betters. New England drops from 36 to 31% to make the playoffs with a loss per PFF — hardly any movement — but jumps all the way to 60% with a win.
If the Pats do get to 3-2, check out the schedule after Buffalo: Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Bucs, Jets, Bengals, and Giants into the bye. That's an incredibly winning schedule, and if New England starts with a W in Buffalo, there may be no turning back.
33
Trevor Lawrence+2500
2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year
0.5u
CPOY goes to an injury return, typically a QB (12 of the last 16), on a 9+ win playoff team (13 of the last 15).
I don’t love the favs. Only one RB has won ever and CMC isn’t running well. Only 1 defender last 16 is a strike against Hutch. Jones coming back from sucking not injury. Dak big stats but unlikely playoff contender + CD hurt.
Lawrence hasn’t been great but everything else about Jax has and looks far more likely to win 9 and make playoffs now than before the season, so why has he dropped from +550 preseason then to +2500 now? Makes no sense for a narrative award when we give QBs credit for wins.
Playing now before wk5 MNF which is all upside if he wins a showcase home game against Mahomes and gets to 4-1, but still very much in the mix with a loss and no standout CPOY candidate.
91
Seattle Seahawks+500
2025 NFL NFC West - To Win
0.5u
Jacksonville is coming off a huge win Monday night, one of its biggest in recent franchise history.
That's great for the Jaguars but also makes this an obvious letdown spot after such an emotional comeback win, especially on short rest. Jacksonville was lucky to get that win, needing a late stumbling, bumbling touchdown even after a 99-yard pick-6 that was effectively a 14-point swing for the Jags.
Jacksonville's defense made the big play but was mostly miserable, allowing the Chiefs offense to hit 64% Success Rate, a top 100 percentile outcome, and move the ball at will. Now it faces a Seattle offense that nearly matched that last week in an incredible performance against the Bucs, undone by a couple mistakes.
Jacksonville has the better record, but Seattle is the better team and should be favored here, and the Seahawks might be by kickoff, as this line floats around a pick'em.
Seattle ranks second in DVOA on the season. It's not super surprising to see the Seahawks 7th on defense or first in special teams, but the offense has been shocking. Sam Darnold has been a revelation for the league's No. 1 passing offense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has broken out as a true star WR1 and sleeper OPOY contender.
The Jaguars traded this week for Browns CB Greg Newsome. Could he immediately get the JSN assignment? Yikes.
Neither of these defenses really covered themselves in glory last week.
Seattle's pass defense got shredded, dropping from 2nd to 15th in DVOA, but faced a much better passing attack and a bunch of secondary injuries. A healthier unit should be able to hold up better against what's really been the most disappointing part of the Jaguars thus far, Trevor Lawrence and the unreliable passing game.
Jacksonville's defense also saw its metrics fall way off last week, from top three to around league average, and from top to bottom 10 against the run. The Jaguars do get Travon Walker back this week but the defense has been over reliant on huge turnover swings, getting beaten on a down-to-down basis.
I like Jacksonville — I just like Seattle better.
In Weeks 6 and 7, underdogs of a touchdown or less against teams with an elite ATS record of 80-to-99% are an awesome 41-16-1 ATS, covering 72% of the time by about five points a game. Seattle is also a Luck Rankings side.
Grab Seahawks +1.5 or the best number available, and switch to the moneyline if you must. I prefer the +1.5 since both coaches are aggressive and it wouldn't be surprising to see a two-point conversion decide this one.
If you do like Seattle here, this is also a great opportunity to invest in Seahawks futures.
Seattle is top five in my power ratings. The Seahawks have a top-five defense when healthy, a top-five coaching staff, and the league's best special teams. If the offense continues to play as a top-10 unit too, Seattle could be a great pick to win the NFC West at +500 (DraftKings).
It's a great opportunity to fade the injury-riddled 4-1 49ers, underdogs this week in Tampa Bay. This looks like a three-horse race with the Rams in the mix too, and FTN projects all three teams between 10.3 and 10.7 wins and between 26 and 38% to win the division. Seattle is lowest of the three but not by much, and that 26% opportunity implies under +300 and will only get better with a win in Jacksonville.
36
Tetairoa McMillan+1300
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
For a second straight week, I strongly considered the Cowboys as a short road favorite.
This Dallas offense looks legit, and Dak Prescott is typically great as a favorite and against sub-.500 teams.
The Cowboys should score. But they might allow plenty of points to the Panthers too, as bad as their defense is playing, and with a total at 49.5, this could end up in the running for highest-scoring game of the week.
Could this finally be the Tet McMillan breakout game?
Carolina's star rookie WR has looked the part on the field but yet to put up a huge line, but this matchup sets up well for some big time production. The Cowboys rank bottom three in the NFL both against the pass and overall by Defensive DVOA.
This pass defense just has no shot right now, especially against opposing WR1s. Malik Nabers had nine catches for 167 yards and two scores against Dallas. Rome Odunze had 62 yards and a TD. Romeo Doubs found the end zone three times, and Garrett Wilson saw 71 yards and a score himself.
All four of those WRs scored a touchdown, with Nabers scoring twice and Doubs three times. Dallas allowed a TD to 8-of-17 opposing WR1s last season too, almost half of them.
McMillan's receptions and yardage lines have been bet up this week past value, so I'm investing in a touchdown or two. He's a big target and should be Bryce Young's look in the red zone, and we could see a whole bunch of touchdowns in a potential shootout.
I'll back McMillan for an Anytime Touchdown at +150 (Caesars) and put a bit on two TDs at +1200 too (FanDuel) with plenty of scores to go around.
This might also be the spot to buy a Tet McMillan ticket for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1300 (ESPN Bet). Emeka Egbuka is the clear favorite right now but should slow down once Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return, and the field looks pretty wide open after Egbuka with Ashton Jeanty second in name only.
A big game Sunday from McMillan should finally get him the attention he deserves.
30
Nick Emmanwori+6000
2025 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
0.5u
🏈 Introducing the Pick Six! 🏈
I’ll start each week at @ActionNetworkHQ by picking 6 NFL sides that *should* win in the upcoming slate to build a moneyline parlay… +630 this week!
Plus my Extra Point, a parting thought DROY long shot at 60-1.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions
61
New Orleans Pelicans u31.5-111
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
30
Portland Trail Blazers o34.5-102
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
29
Sacramento Kings o34.5-115
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
29
Los Angeles Lakers u48.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
40
Houston Rockets u53.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
2u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
40
Minnesota Timberwolves o49.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
36
Oklahoma City Thunder o62.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
38
Oklahoma City Thunder-300
2025-26 NBA Northwest Division - To Win
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
19
Los Angeles Clippers (No)+350
2025-26 NBA To Make The Playoffs
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
37
Golden State Warriors+300
2025-26 NBA Pacific Division - To Win
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
27
Houston Rockets u48.5+265
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
12
Los Angeles Lakers (No)+325
2025-26 NBA To Make The Playoffs
0.25u
NBA Western Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
35
Indiana Pacers u38.5-120
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
27
Boston Celtics u42.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
2.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
36
Miami Heat o37.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
34
Indiana Pacers u31.5+400
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
12
Boston Celtics u36.5+280
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
14
Miami Heat o50.5+4000
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
22
Toronto Raptors o37.5-110
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
36
Detroit Pistons o46.5-115
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
32
New York Knicks u53.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
33
Toronto Raptors o49.5+1100
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
23
New York Knicks u44.5+700
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
13
Orlando Magic o50.5-115
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
34
Cleveland Cavaliers o56.5-105
2025-26 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
33
Toronto Raptors+3000
2025-26 NBA Atlantic Division - To Win
2u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
37
Boston Celtics (No)+185
2025-26 NBA To Make The Playoffs
1u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
32
Philadelphia 76ers+700
2025-26 NBA Atlantic Division - To Win
0.25u
NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣
28
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander+275
2025-26 NBA MVP
2u
It’s only boring bc it’s so obviously the right bet. Depleted field, best player best team, a runaway clear favorite if healthy. I’d take him vs the field.
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
46
Jalen Williams+5000
2025-26 NBA Playoff Series - Western Conference Finals - MVP
0.5u
Just shouldn’t be 18x SGA, clear favs
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
32
Jalen Williams+10000
2025-26 NBA NBA Cup MVP
0.5u
Shouldn’t be 17x SGA in tiny sample as favs
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
34
Amen Thompson+1000
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.5u
The most fun awards bet you can make this sn
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
43
Brandon Miller+5000
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.25u
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
57
Kevin Porter+6000
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.25u
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
47
Evan Mobley+2500
2025-26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year
2u
My favorite awards bet of the preseason. 🎯
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
58
Cooper Flagg-170
2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year
0.5u
It’s boring but it’s going to win barring injury.
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
30
Jordan Clarkson+4000
2025-26 NBA 6th Man of the Year
1u
Prior winner, absolute bullseye for this award at a wild outlier number at FD
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
54
Jalen Green+7500
2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player
0.25u
Buckets 10 players you NEED to bet pod 🪣
41
Kansas City Chiefs+160
2025 NFL AFC West - To Win
1u
Good spot to buy in on Chiefs with Rashee healthy and offense hitting its stride while Denver and LAC stagger a bit
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions
59
Detroit Lions+175
2025 NFL NFC North - To Win
1u
Lions playing as well as any team, even after KC loss. Division is tough but buying value. Detroit should be the favorite not GB, and probably at a minus number
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions
55
Denver Nuggets+850
2025-26 NBA Championship - To Win
0.25u
One last pre-season bet, the final pick from our Bet-a-Palooza podcast. Calling my title shot! @TurveyBets & I were on OKC last year… this year we’re both looking to invest in Nuggets title futures! 🏆
44
Lamar Jackson o29.5+105
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.25u
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes?
He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41.
Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.
27
Lamar Jackson o34.5+420
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.25u
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes?
He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41.
Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.
24
Derrick Henry o1249.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.5u
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down.
Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon.
Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons.
We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time.
It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.
27
Derrick Henry o1499.5+310
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.5u
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down.
Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon.
Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons.
We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time.
It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.
26
Seattle Seahawks o10.5-130
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
I keep banging the drum on Seattle futures, and there's still some value with the team overlooked after the bye week.
A simple bet on over 10.5 wins looks good (-130, FanDuel), with FTN projecting Seattle at 11.6 wins, and there's still some value on a division ticket at +240 (DraftKings), with books giving San Francisco too much credit as an option.
The Seahawks are also +500 to reach the NFC Championship Game (bet365), insultingly longer than the 49ers, if you're ready to buy into a postseason run.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions
33
Baltimore Ravens o8.5+100
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
And don't look now, but it's probably time to buy Ravens stock going forward. After TNF, the Ravens have games against the Vikings, Browns, and Jets, which means 1-5 might turn into 6-5 in a hurry, with all four Steelers and Bengals games to come after that.
There's a reason Baltimore is still the division favorite. A simple bet on Ravens over 8.5 wins at +100 (FanDuel) makes sense with this soft schedule, even if you decide to pivot later. This may also be a smart time to invest in Jackson and Henry statistical futures.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions
20
Detroit Lions+125
2025 NFL NFC North - To Win
0.5u
As well as the Lions are playing, Detroit is still a bit underrated in the futures market — perhaps because of the presence of Green Bay.
FTN has the Lions at 56% to win the division, but Detroit is still +125 to do so at FanDuel. That's a smart investment, and it implies value on the Lions to win the NFC or Super Bowl if you want to push your chips in.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions
45
Los Angeles Chargers (No)+225
2025 NFL To Make The Playoffs
1u
Extra Point wk10. Great spot to fade Chargers with OL injury shambles and PIT JAX next. FTN has them 45% to miss, more like +120 so almost 2x payout here:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-10-moneyline-predictions-picks
65
Ashton Jeanty+4000
2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
0.25u
Week 11 Extra Point:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-week-11-moneyline-predictions-picks
82
Jared Goff+3000
2025 NFL MVP
0.25u
For all the talk about Rams-Seahawks, this game could wind up just as important in the NFC.
We already know both these teams are built for the playoffs, having seen them each go on deep runs. Playoff football is about running the ball and playing defense, exactly what these teams have built their identities around.
Right now, though, Detroit is better at both.
The Lions defense has been outstanding this season, top five by DVOA. The Eagles are coming off one of their best performances of the season in defense after adding Jaelan Phillips, but Philadelphia is still just 13th in DVOA on the season.
As for the rushing attacks, the Lions appear to have the advantage both ways.
Detroit ranks 6th in DVOA running the ball while the Eagles rank just 21st in defense. Flip it around and the Eagles are a surprising 22nd by DVOA rushing, while the Lions rank 7th.
Saquon Barkley just hasn't hit those explosives this season, and four of five Eagles linemen are on the injury report. That line hasn't been as good as it was in past years.
For all the talk about Philadelphia's improvement, Detroit also took a big step last week. Dan Campbell took over play calling, and the impact was immediately apparent.
The Lions rank top three by EPA per play in both motion and playaction plays, and they immediately used more motion with Campbell and nearly doubled their playaction calls. That could be a huge problem for the Eagles, since they rank 29th by EPA per play defending playaction.
Both sides have important injuries, and it's never fun backing Jared Goff on the road in a windy environment, but Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball, with superior special teams and coaching. The Lions are also a luck side in our Luck Rankings.
Grab Lions +3 while it's there (ESPN Bet) at the key, or best number available.
I actually make the Lions the favorite, so I'm inclined to bet on a win too. Just the moneyline isn't enticing enough, but Detroit has won nine straight games by at least six points so let's place a portion of the bet on Lions -5.5 alt at +246 (DraftKings).
The futures angle here is clear — bet MVP for the QB on the team you expect to win.
The MVP race still appears to be wide open. Quarterbacks on top-two seeds win this award, so the prices for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen appear way off with their teams in the wildcard race, and upstart Drake Maye has the MVP target on his back now.
The Eagles enter the weekend at 52% to be a top-two seed, while the Lions are at 40%. Whichever team wins will be in contention with the Rams-Seahawks winner for the top spot in the NFC, and that could be the kingmaker spot.
Hurts is on pace for 4,000 yards and 40 TDs including rushing, with only two interceptions. Goff is on pace for 4,200 yards passing with 38 TDs and six picks, and his passing rate went up with Campbell calling plays.
The Lions still have a number of marquee games on the schedule — Packers on Thanksgiving, Cowboys the following Thursday night, a huge late afternoon game against the Rams, and the Vikings on Christmas. The Lions will be favored in every game the rest of the season except that Rams one — an obvious narrative revenge spot against his old team.
Hurts and Goff are priced similarly for MVP to guys like Justin Herbert playing with no offensive line, Baker Mayfield whose entire supporting cast is injured, and Lamar Jackson who has under a 3% shot at a top-two seed.
If we like the Lions, we have to like Goff for MVP too in a wide open race. That's the ultimate Lions escalator on Sunday night at +3000 (ESPN Bet).
35
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 13-28-1 | 31% | 4.81u |
| Last 30 Days | 53-105-1 | 33% | 18.21u |
| All Time | 2696-3642-100 | 42% | 822.99u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1182-1630-31 | 42% | 400.95u |
| NBA | 1303-1712-62 | 42% | 327.13u |
| NCAAB | 150-211-5 | 41% | 68.78u |
| NCAAF | 31-25-1 | 54% | 17.94u |
| Champions | 6-4-1 | 55% | 7.98u |
| WNBA | 5-5-0 | 50% | 6.82u |
| MLS | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.66u |
| ATP | 1-3-0 | 25% | 1.13u |
| La Liga | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.04u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.01u |
| World Cup | 3-9-0 | 25% | -2.70u |
| Premier League | 3-14-0 | 18% | -8.91u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Bet the Texans to go from worst to first in the division, and even doubled down with a Will Anderson DROY cherry on top. Joe Flacco CPOY +25000 and Nuggets over Heat +1600 exact outcome were fun, too!
Most Heartbreaking Bet
MVP bets. Tom Brady +1400 in 2021, odds-on favorite in December, but shutout vs. Saints on SNF. Nikola Jokic +900 in 2023, rightful leader all the way, but the moron voters get bored and go with Embiid last minute. Brock Purdy +5000 in 2024, odds-on favorite on Christmas, but the voters are too proud to vote for him or Dak. You're killin' me, Smalls!
Specialties
- Futures
- NFL Picks (every team, every game!)
- NBA Spreads & Props
- Escalator bets
- Long Shots