Sean Koerner

Full write up will be in my TNF betting preview. Out first thing tomorrow

On the surface this looks like a pretty fair number for Lassiter. He’s averaging 5.8 tackles a game, but my projections flagged this as a potential eruption spot, and it’s easy to see why. The Texans have an elite defense and rank 3rd in average time of possession, so it’s not too surprising they’ve allowed the 4th fewest plays per game. However, they face a Bills offense that ranks 2nd in time of possession, and I’m projecting the Texans to face more play volume tonight with about +1.4 more completions than their season average and, more importantly, +5.9 more rush attempts. Lassiter is a CB who is heavily involved in run defense and actually leads all cornerbacks in run tackles, three more than the next closest player. This matchup specifically favors him. He’s also faced one of the toughest schedules for a CB, and I project him for +5.8 more tackles on the season (+0.58 per game) if he had faced a league-average slate. The Bills provide the 2nd most tackle opportunities to CBs, making this by far his best matchup of the season. The only two teams he’s faced with above-average CB tackle opportunity rates were the Rams (he had 9) and the Broncos (he had 10, and yes, if you remember, I was on his over in that game too). This is the perfect spot for him to rack up 6+ tackles. I’m projecting him closer to 6.7 with around a 65% chance he clears 5.5, and we are also getting plus odds. I’m also going to ladder this. Since the market moves too fast for me to grab multiple rungs, I usually need to pick the one offering the most value. I’m going with 8+ at +383, which I project closer to +180. If you want to sprinkle on any other alts, go for it, because every single one is showing value until the market inevitably moves within minutes.

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Full write up/article in the app