Sean Koerner

Adams is expected to return from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out a few games now. I’m assuming they were playing it safe and that he’s closer to 100% with a low chance of a setback, but there’s still a chance he could be limited. My projection is assuming he steps right back into his full-time role at full health, so any sort of limitation due to the hamstring only helps favor the under here. This is also an odd matchup where you have arguably the best team facing one of the worst playoff teams (ever) as 10-point road favorites. I do think the Rams win this one with ease, and it’s a great matchup for them on the ground with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. It’s also a great matchup for Puka Nacua and the TE group, as the Panthers have struggled against WR1s and TEs this season. Davante tends to see a high % of his targets either downfield or in the end zone, which means anytime he does haul in a pass it has a massive impact on the game and often sets up the Rams to play with the lead and lean more run heavy. In a sense, every catch he makes can actually hurt his rest-of-game projection, which is a sneaky reason I like the under here. There’s also a chance we see some rain or wind in Carolina. Probably not enough to materially impact play, but it’s still a downgrade compared to playing indoors in LA and dings Adams slightly. We also saw Tyler Higbee return last week, which makes the TE group more likely to eat into Adams’ target share. All of this has me projecting him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. I have zero interest in fading his yardage or TD markets. I’m specifically fading him in this market. And again, this projection assumes he’s fully healthy and back to his normal role, so any limitations at all only add more hidden value to the under.

Speights is always a tricky projection because he’s not an every-down linebacker. He tends to play on early downs at a high rate and plays on 3rd/4th downs at a much lower rate. As a result, I expect him to be on the field for right around 85% of the Panthers’ run plays and just 62% of their pass plays. After doing a deeper dive, I noticed his snap % was very predictive when you look at the Rams’ margin of victory. In their 3 losses over the final 10 games, we saw Speights play his 3 highest snap % games, averaging 84% of snaps in those 3. However, in their 5 wins of 10+ points, he averaged just a 56% snap rate. This makes sense in theory because as the Rams play with a bigger lead, their opponent will likely pivot to a more pass-heavy, up-tempo style of play, the types of plays Speights usually sits out as they have an extra DB on the field in place of him. However, if they are trailing, their opponent will likely be using a more run-heavy, heavier personnel approach. So I’m expecting his playing time to be on the lower end here with the Rams as 10-point road favorites. Sure, the Panthers could be very run heavy early in the game, especially with the potential for heavy rain and wind in the forecast. But if the Rams do build a 2-score lead, Carolina will be forced to throw more. I also found another factor that could lead to him being involved in fewer run tackles. He’s much more involved in outside runs. Looking at his run tackle % based on inside vs. outside runs, he shows a pretty strong correlation with outside runs. The Falcons run to the outside at by far the highest rate, and he racked up 6 tackles in run support in that game (a whopping 23% rate). In the 3 matchups against inside-run-heavy teams (NO/TB/CAR), he had just a 13% tackle rate. The reason he ended up with 7 tackles against the Panthers in Week 13 was due to the fact that the Panthers dominated time of possession, ran the ball 40 times, and it was a game the Rams lost, so his playing time was near a season high. It was basically the perfect storm and he still barely cleared this. Does this mean Speights won’t get 6+ tackles here? Of course not. But this is a matchup where I project his playing time to be a tad lower, Carolina’s inside-run tendencies (both Dowdle/Hubbard run inside at a top 7 rate) hurt him, and the return of Quentin Lake could ding him slightly as Speights’ run tackle rate has been about 2% lower with Lake on the field. In the end, I have him mixing in on ~3 run tackles and ~2 tackles on completions for a projection of 5.1 tackles (including the small chance he mixes in on a sack), with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5. Getting plus odds is nice here. He has a wide range of outcomes, but the fact that so many subtle factors point to him being closer to his floor makes this my favorite tackle prop from this game.

When it comes to the Packers, you have to throw out their Week 18 game with them resting key players and starting Clayton Tune. But in Week 17, it was the first game we’ve seen with Josh Whyle since leaving Week 15 early due to injury. In that game, Whyle was the Packers’ TE on 71% of their 3WR sets, so Musgrave only saw 29% of those snaps, which are the more pass-heavy formations, while playing most of the 2TE sets, which are typically more run heavy. As a result, Musgrave only had a 41% routes run rate, which has been right around where he’s been since Tucker Kraft’s season-ending injury and when Whyle has been healthy and able to play a full game. So his playing time has been limited, and this is also a game where the Packers could try to lean on the run game a bit more with Josh Jacobs closer to 100%. There’s also enough snow and wind in the forecast that it could impact the passing game. Musgrave was a solid prospect and was actually taken a round ahead of Kraft in the same class, but he’s a different type of pass catcher and more of a downfield threat, and not very good after the catch, whereas Kraft is elite there. So either he’s going to see fewer downfield targets given the potential conditions, or if they end up scheming him more shorter throws and this things toast, but that’s not really his skill set. The Bears have also been pretty solid against TEs, ranking 10th in DVOA against the position, and that was without their best coverage LB T.J. Edwards, who missed a handful of games in the middle of the season. Musgrave clearly has the talent and role to clear this with 1–2 catches, so I’m going to shy away from his rec yds prop (showing value on the under 23.5, but some books are already down to 20.5) and since the main downside with him is playing time (on passing downs) I think this is the market to fade him. Projecting him closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 61% chance to stay under 2.5

I was a bit surprised to see his prop this high here, as this is a number he’s only cleared in 4 of 16 games this season. Obviously, being in the playoffs changes the dynamic for a lot of prop markets, but when it comes to Allen, he’s probably going to be more willing to scramble and put his body on the line now that we’re in the playoffs, which would only limit his ceiling in this market. Plus, while we would normally expect a more likely trailing, pass-heavy game script in the playoffs, this game is basically a pick’em. The Bills are projected to play with the lead around 43% of the game (that’s the typical rate for a pick’em, not that I’m saying they’ll lead for exactly 43%). That’s also basically the exact rate they’ve led this season, so I’m not expecting their dropback rate to change much here. This sets up as a pretty typical game script for them. They’ve also dominated time of possession this season, ranking 1st at just over 33 minutes per game, but the Jaguars rank 5th in TOP themselves, so they could cut into the Bills’ overall play volume by keeping them on the sideline a bit more than usual. The Jaguars have used Cover 6 at a league-high rate this year and 23% of the time over the last 6 weeks. Allen has scrambled on 18% of his dropbacks against Cover 6 compared to just 8.1% against all other coverages. Anytime he scrambles, that takes away a potential pass att. Plus, this game is expected to have perfect weather, especially compared to most of the other games this weekend. We actually want Allen completing most of his passes here. Incomplete passes are brutal for this market and usually lead to a higher % chance they throw again on the next play or push the game into a more pass-heavy script. So Allen having great weather to complete passes, be efficient, and potentially throw downfield can actually help this stay under. I’m projecting him closer to 31.5 pass att with around a 61% chance to stay under 33.5.