Sean Koerner

It’s going to be freezing cold, with some wind that only amplifies the cold, and potentially some snow. I’m expecting both teams to be a bit more run heavy and slower paced, which could lower the overall play volume of the game, a key factor for this market specifically. Caleb is already below average in terms of accuracy and completion rate, and that tends to take a hit in these conditions, especially since it’s also tougher for pass catchers to hang on to throws, particularly with how hard he throws the ball. We should also see him continue to use his legs to scramble when needed, which further lowers his ceiling in this specific market. He’s benefited from several ultra pass-heavy comeback game scripts at times this year to eventually clear this number, but even in those spots, Ben Johnson has remained patient and continued to mix in the run at a fairly normal rate before fully airing it out. That approach also caps his upside in this market. I’m projecting him closer to 18.0 completions, with around a 63% chance he stays under 19.5. Quite a few books have this at 18.5 (juiced to the over), and I still have him at roughly a 56% chance to stay under that number, with about a 9% chance he lands exactly on 18, a good reminder of how critical each completion is in these markets.

Byard has the 2nd most solo run tackles for the Bears and an average depth of tackle just over 10 yards. I’m expecting the Rams to be a bit more run heavy here and efficient with that approach, as Kyren Williams ranks 1st among qualified RBs in success rate and backup Blake Corum ranks 3rd. They should be able to break into the second level and the open field more often, which brings Byard’s tackle chances into play, especially with LB T.J. Edwards out. Byard has seen his tackle rate on run plays jump by roughly 3% when Edwards isn’t on the field. He should also be involved on some Puka Nacua and Davante Adams receptions, along with other pass-game tackles throughout the game. All of this helps explain why the Rams have provided the 2nd most tackle opportunities to safeties on the season. Byard has had a tougher-than-average schedule for a safety, and this will only be the third game he’s faced a team in the top half of the league in tackle opportunities for safeties, making this his second-best matchup to date. This is a great spot for Byard, and I’m projecting him roughly a full tackle higher than the market at 6.8, with around a 65% chance to clear 5.5.