Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2510 Posts
Sean Koerner
2510 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.3K
Followers
528K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pending
This reminds me a bit of the Dalton Schultz under last week. I know Kincaid is a beast, he’s currently top 5 in my fantasy rankings, but he’s much more of a big-play threat this year than a Tyler Warren type who might catch 9 balls for 50 yards. Kincaid could absolutely go 4/90/2 here, which would be great for fantasy and still cash this under. Despite seeing mostly downfield targets, Kincaid has an 82% catch rate, a career high and about 15% above expected, so there’s some regression coming there. He’s also historically been less efficient against man coverage. The Pats may play a little less man with Christian Gonzalez out, but that probably opens things up more for DJ Moore and the other WRs too, which isn’t necessarily helping Kincaid’s target volume. New England hasn’t faced any TEs of Kincaid’s caliber yet, but they’ve generally held the position below expectation. I have him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. Again, he can still do a TON of damage on 3-4 catches.
114
16
I feel like we’re still maybe 1-2 games away from Parker becoming a full-on “he good, me bet over” type player where you’re not really outfoxing the books or the market anymore, everyone is just on the same page that he’s an absolute STUD. I’m only showing a little value here with a median closer to 75.5 yards, but I’m also the guy behind the curtain building these projections, so I know where some of the inputs are probably still a bit too conservative. I’m not blindly betting an over just because Parker is good, but I’m also not going to pretend the difference between 73.5 and 75.5 tells the entire story here. After doing the full deep dive and updating everything for this game, all roads sort of led back to Parker. Jacksonville has breezed to a 2-1 start and played with the lead so much that Trevor Lawrence was literally passing up walk-in TDs to let his RB punch it in on the next play with 8+ minutes left. As slight road dogs, I’m projecting them to trail at a ~40% higher rate, which should naturally mean more passing. It could also get them out of some of the heavy TE personnel they’ve been using, which would mean more routes for Parker (and Meyers). Cincinnati has also played man at an above-average rate while blitzing at the lowest rate in the league, and Parker’s usage spikes against both looks. On his 10 routes against man with no blitz, he has a completely ridiculous 60% target rate and 6.60 YPRR. Obviously that isn’t remotely sustainable, but I do think it’s pointing us in the right direction. The prop market for this game is extremely sharp imo, so I’m not sitting here pretending I’ve uncovered some massive hidden edge. But I think there’s still a small window to buy in on Parker before his overs, alt overs and TDs are just part of everyone’s weekly portfolio and I’m not even able to show 2 yards of value on him anymore. My median is 75.5 yards, but I like his upside way more than that number suggests and not the type of market I expect his actual number to be super close. Gonna go 4/35/0 or 7/108/1 and makes me a bit more immune to 0.5/close bet luck coming into play lol
86
17
Doing my deep dive/projection update for this game, the clearest theme is that Houston’s passing volume has been inflated by game script. They’ve been extremely pass heavy through three weeks and Stroud is averaging 40+ attempts per game, but they’re also 0-3 and have spent a ton of time playing from behind. As 3-point home favorites, I’m expecting a much more favorable script and have Houston projected to play with the lead at a much higher rate. There’s obviously a chance Dallas jumps out early and I lose this thing by 0.5 in some tragic fashion again lol, but if these expected game scripts are even remotely right, more of these should start falling our way. I’m also expecting Stroud to be much more efficient against this disaster Cowboys defense, especially with Nico Collins back. Joey Porter Jr. should help them eventually, but if he’s active it’s hard to imagine him playing the full game or immediately knowing every assignment. And honestly, the bigger issue is the DC anyway, so I don’t think Porter suddenly fixes everything in his debut. Long completions to Nico are great for this under because they move the ball without piling up attempts, and playing from ahead should naturally push Houston toward the run. The overall theme I’m seeing here is more Houston rushing and a more efficient Texans offense, so I’m just going right to the source with Stroud’s attempts. Monty overs and Boutte under receptions are the types of props that also correlate with how I see this game playing out.
121
21
He’s cooled off since the opener and has failed to clear this in back-to-back games, but I think this is a pretty good buy-low spot because his underlying usage has actually been even BETTER since Week 1. Weather was an issue last week and could be again here, but it’s not a lock to be nearly as bad. Winston should also have a cleaner pocket against Arizona, especially if Josh Sweat is still limited, and he’s been targeting Likely heavily when kept clean. The Cardinals have been getting torched by TEs too. After doing my full deep dive on this game and updating all of my player projections, this was the market that stood out the most. I have Likely closer to 44.5 yards, so not Prop of the Year status or anything, but definitely my favorite play from this game. The plan as always today is to go game by game as I update my projections across our prop tool, DFS models and my fantasy projections. Some games/bets will obviously stand out more than others, but I won’t really know the pecking order until I’ve worked through the whole slate.
135
20
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series: 32 Teams. 32 Bets. One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team. First up: Arizona Cardinals Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
26
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
27
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
106
24
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
26
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
23
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
22
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
20
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days8-18-031%
-3.29u
Last 30 Days31-40-044%
-2.80u
All Time2338-1961-3954%
241.56u
Top Leagues
NFL1256-1012-2055%
137.31u
MLB391-350-752%
45.08u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA211-177-554%
25.03u
NCAAF42-30-257%
6.10u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
Golf9-21-030%
-0.42u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.