Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2501 Posts
Sean Koerner
2501 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.3K
Followers
517.3K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pending
Going back to the well after Rush was predictably awful in Week 1. Atlanta is sticking with him as the starter in what should be a very winnable game against Carolina, and I still expect them to be extremely run heavy after posting a ridiculous league-low -18.5% PROE last week. The matchup also helps. Pittsburgh blitzed Rush on just 8% of his dropbacks, while Carolina should send extra rushers much more often. Throughout his career, Rush has tended to push the ball farther downfield against the blitz. That can help this under by lowering his completion rate, but even when he connects, chunk plays shorten the field and reduce the number of completions needed on a drive. If Atlanta is playing with a lead, that also makes it even easier for them to lean back into the run. The really interesting part is how volatile this QB situation could be. The obvious way this goes over is Atlanta falling behind by multiple scores and Rush getting forced into a ton of volume. But if that happens because Rush is struggling again, I think there’s a very real chance the home crowd turns on him quickly. We could easily hear boos, maybe even Jack Strand chants, and that could put some pressure on Stefanski to make a mid-game change. That gives us a pretty valuable out against the exact game script that would normally be worst for this under. I have Rush closer to 18 completions with around a 58% chance to stay under, but I think the true hit rate is a little higher because of that benching path. It’s hard to put an exact number on something that subjective, but that’s also the kind of non-math angle I want to layer into the projection rather than just blindly trusting the model. I’d definitely prefer 18.5 because every completion is worth a lot on a number this low, but I’d still be OK at 17.5 because Rush has a much lower floor than most starting QBs given how volatile this situation is.
61
10
Oliver went 2/22/0 in Week 1 but could’ve easily finished with 3-4 catches. He was targeted on 4 of 9 routes, a ridiculous 44% target rate, and actually led the team with a 26% first-read rate. So Wentz was clearly looking his way, and the 50% catch rate came in well below his 73% expected catch rate. With potential rain/wind, I could see Wentz leaning on Oliver underneath again. Jauan Jennings being out could also push them into more 12 personnel rather than simply giving all of his snaps to Tai Felton/Myles Price, which would create more routes for Oliver. I have him closer to 1.9 receptions with around a 60% chance to clear 1.5.
138
21
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series: 32 Teams. 32 Bets. One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team. First up: Arizona Cardinals Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
26
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
27
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
106
24
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
26
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
23
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
22
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
20
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days8-9-047%
-0.86u
Last 30 Days16-16-050%
-0.67u
All Time2319-1933-3954%
243.92u
Top Leagues
NFL1239-986-2055%
139.63u
MLB391-349-752%
45.58u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA211-176-554%
25.57u
NCAAF40-30-256%
5.10u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
Golf9-21-030%
-0.42u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.