Sean Koerner

Pierce’s under was the prop I was considering for this game ever since I mentioned on the TD show that he likely takes the biggest hit with Rivers under center for the Colts. But this morning I noticed that Pierce’s over rec yds is one of the top 5 most-bet props, with 99% of the action on his over. I’m not too surprised. Last week was the first time he was held below 25 rec yds all season, going just 1/16/0. He has cleared this number in 11 of 12 games, but I still think this is a spot to “sell high” on Pierce and buck the 92% trend of him clearing this number this year. Rivers’ average depth of target last week was just 4.7 yards downfield, which would be by far the lowest on the season among qualified passers. He attempted only two passes 20+ yards downfield, one incomplete to Jonathan Taylor and one to Michael Pittman that was intercepted. His only pass to Pierce was a contested catch 15 yards downfield that Next Gen Stats gave roughly a 45% chance of being completed, meaning Pierce was essentially a 55% chance to finish with zero catches last week. While I expect Rivers to be a bit sharper this week and attempt a few more passes, it’s still likely a downgrade for Pierce specifically. He’s averaging a league-high 18.9 aDOT and tends to see a high percentage of tight-window, contested throws. In order to clear this, he likely needs one or two downfield attempts from Rivers and to connect on one with a sub-50% completion probability, which is certainly possible. The other path would be the Colts scheming him more quick-hitting routes, but that seems unlikely with Tyler Warren and Josh Downs better suited for those looks, along with Jonathan Taylor and Ameer Abdullah both seeing increased target rates, all at Pierce’s expense. He remains a boom/bust option who could finish with another 1/16/0 line or just as easily post a 2/80/1 line. I’m simply showing the odds of his floor outcomes being a bit higher here, with a median closer to 16.5 rec yds and around a 60% chance to stay under 21.5.

When looking into Winters’ tackle prop, it’s ideal to focus on his role from Week 7 on, as Fred Warner went down with a season-ending injury in Week 6. That was such a massive blow to the defense and clearly impacts Winters’ tackle rate. Tatum Bethune is also expected to be back in the lineup for the first time since Week 11, which should shake things up a bit as well. In terms of Winters’ tackle profile, he’s recorded a tackle on roughly 12% of opponents’ rush attempts and around 9% of opponent dropbacks. I am expecting the Colts to be fairly run heavy, with the 49ers facing around +3 more rush attempts than usual. Winters also tends to mix in on scrambles at a higher rate, which Rivers won’t provide, and I have him projected to be involved on around ~3 Jonathan Taylor runs. However, I have the 49ers expected to face roughly ~5.5 fewer pass completions in this game, which eats into Winters’ upside quite a bit. While a lower aDOT could allow him to mix in slightly more underneath, I also expect safety Malik Mustapha to play in the box at a higher rate and pick up some of those tackle opportunities. This is also a game where the 49ers could dominate time of possession and keep their defense off the field more than usual. All of this leads me to project Winters closer to 6.9 tackles, with around a 62% chance to stay under 7.5. It’s that time of year where the tackle prop market is pretty sharp. Earlier today, his under 7.5 was closer to -140, which I was much more in line with, but with it getting bet up to +108, I think there’s enough value to lock it in.