Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2449 Posts
Sean Koerner
2449 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.1K
Followers
449.4K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pairing with Austin o2.5 ast on PrizePicks Brutal matchup for Natisha Hiedeman to rack up assists. Golden State plays at the slowest pace in the league, which lowers the total number of possessions and naturally hurts counting stats like assists. They also have an elite rim defense and allow the fewest assists at the rim, which is a problem considering a large chunk of Hiedeman’s assists come from creating looks in that area. The one thing working in her favor is that Golden State allows the highest assist rate on 3-pointers, and Hiedeman does get a meaningful boost from those opportunities. However, relying more heavily on 3-point assists adds variance to the equation since she now needs her teammates to convert those looks at a higher rate to get to 5+ assists. There’s also a sneaky chance the matchup causes her to become more aggressive as a scorer. Hiedeman is Seattle’s best 3-point shooter, and against a defense that funnels assists toward the perimeter, I think there’s a decent chance she ends up taking more of those shots herself rather than creating them for teammates. I have her projected closer to 4.1 assists and a 62% chance to stay under 4.5
68
17
Pending
Austin has seen her assist rate climb to career highs this season, and my model has Toronto as the best matchup in the league for her to rack up assists. The Tempo allow the highest assist rate on shots at the rim and corner 3s, which happens to align perfectly with where Austin generates a lot of her assists. They also allow the most baskets at the rim, so it’s not surprising to see so many assists coming from that area against them. This matchup should naturally boost Austin’s scoring as well, but if Toronto decides to send extra attention her way, it could actually create even more opportunities for her as a passer. Austin leads the team in corner 3 assist rate, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she sets up Michaela Onyenwere for a couple of quality looks from the corner tonight. Adding Onyenwere to make 2+ threes at +296 as an SGP on FanDuel makes a lot of sense. Kiki Iriafen is questionable with a sprained ankle, and her absence could make this setup even better. Not only has Austin’s assist rate been significantly higher with Kiki off the floor this season, but Toronto would have even more incentive to focus its defensive attention on Austin specifically, opening things up for her teammates. I’m projecting Austin closer to 3.1 assists with around a 61% chance to clear 2.5, and that’s assuming Kiki plays. I’d rather lock this in now in case Iriafen is ruled out and we see Austin’s entire statistical profile get bumped up across the board.
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16
Futures
Past Performance
Yesterday3-0-0100%
1.50u
Last 7 Days12-3-080%
4.82u
Last 30 Days44-43-349%
2.64u
All Time2229-1833-3854%
241.12u
Top Leagues
NFL1225-970-2055%
141.31u
MLB359-317-753%
42.02u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA171-136-455%
22.73u
NCAAF38-28-256%
5.17u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
Golf8-14-036%
0.77u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.