Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2506 Posts
Sean Koerner
2506 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.3K
Followers
522.8K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pending
Every time it looks like TreVeyon Henderson might finally be cutting into Rhamondre’s role because of better play or another fumble, assuming it actually happens has burned people. I joked last year that maybe Stevenson had blackmail on Vrabel. Maybe that situation has changed a bit 😉 Rhamondre has basically operated near the ceiling of his role for most of the last two seasons, even in Week 1 when Henderson was out. Now Henderson looks fully healthy after the ankle injury, is entering Year 2 and saw his playing time increase after Stevenson’s fumble last week. I think there are finally enough red flags to gamble on something closer to a 50/50 playing-time split, with Stevenson still handling more of the passing-down work. That matters because New England is a 3-point road dog, giving them a better chance of playing from behind and lowering the overall rushing volume. Stevenson also runs inside at one of the highest rates in the league, which plays directly into the strength of Jacksonville’s run defense. So even if he gets a couple more carries than I’m expecting, I still think the efficiency could be ugly. I have him closer to 33.5 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to stay under 37.5. There are just a lot more paths to a floor game than a ceiling game here.
133
21
Kind of a weird buy-low spot for Cook’s receiving market. He entered the league with more of a pass-catching profile, but that obviously isn’t his main role anymore as Buffalo’s lead back and the reigning rushing champ. Still, the underlying usage has actually been pretty solid. Cook has caught just 4 of 7 targets, a 57% catch rate that’s roughly 22% below expected. And because I’m not just blindly trusting the math here, I went back and watched all seven targets. Could easily have 1-2 more rec so far this year and way more receiving production that game log watchers are going to see. I prefer Over 10.5 yards to paying heavy juice on Over 1.5 receptions because Cook usually makes his catches count at 8+ yards per grab. He can clear this on one play, but I think 2-3 catches is more likely than the market suggests. I have his median closer to 15.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to clear 10.5.
145
33
About to unload a handful of props, so might as well start with a fun one 😂 I’m projecting Cleveland for a lot more rushing volume in a game where they should spend more time in neutral or even positive game script against a Carolina defense that has been much easier to attack on the ground. Judkins obviously benefits too, but Sanders is the sneakier angle because he’s even more of an inside runner/short-yardage grinder, and that’s exactly where the Panthers have been getting gashed. Devin Lloyd being out only helps. I don’t expect Sanders to even play on the first couple drives, so this is more of a “let the game come to him” prop. If Cleveland keeps this close or plays with the lead, I think the snaps and carries show up later. I have him closer to 10.5 rushing yards with around a 60% chance to clear 7.5.
144
27
Nice sell-high spot after Schultz went absolutely nuclear for 12/140/0 last week. I can’t imagine many people are lining up to bet his under now, which is part of why I like it. He’s still going to be one of Stroud’s top targets with Nico Collins out, but the matchup is much different. Lou Anarumo has been using man coverage at one of the highest rates through two weeks, and Schultz has historically been much better against zone. Last year he had a 24% target rate with an 87% catch rate vs. zone, compared to just 17% target rate and 59% catch rate vs. man. Houston also had the perfect environment for him last week. They’ve been trailing far more than usual despite having one of the league’s best defenses, and Cincinnati has been a dream matchup for TEs. I’m expecting more neutral/positive game script here, more rushing volume, and potentially more heavy TE personnel. That matters because Schultz’s playing time in 12 personnel has already dipped quite a bit. So even if he remains Houston’s top pass catcher, I think the route volume and efficiency both come down. I have him closer to 5.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5. Pretty classic sell-high spot after a monster box score, and you know the public is going to want the over.
111
22
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series: 32 Teams. 32 Bets. One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team. First up: Arizona Cardinals Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
26
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
27
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
106
24
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
26
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
23
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
22
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
20
Past Performance
Yesterday1-0-0100%
0.50u
Last 7 Days11-10-052%
0.93u
Last 30 Days23-23-050%
-0.01u
All Time2330-1943-3954%
244.85u
Top Leagues
NFL1249-996-2055%
140.06u
MLB391-349-752%
45.58u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA211-176-554%
25.57u
NCAAF41-30-256%
5.60u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
Golf9-21-030%
-0.42u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.