Experience
Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.
His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:
- It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
- He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
- He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position
Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.
Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.
He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.
Education
Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
More from Sean Koerner
Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For the Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions! | Action Island
Sean Koerner🔮's Picks
Today
Pending
UTSA u30.5+100
NAVY
@
UTSA
0.5u
10/18 12:00 AM
83
TB u3.5-135
TB
@
CLE
0.68u
10/18 12:08 AM
58
C.Rodriguez u16.5 Rush Yds-112
HOU
@
JAC
0.56u
10/18 1:30 PM
Rodriguez saw a season-low 8.3% of Jacksonville’s designed rush attempts last week as the Jags leaned much more heavily on Bhayshul Tuten. I do expect CRod’s workload to bounce back some here, but probably not all the way back to the role he had in Weeks 1-4.
Game script could work against him too. Jacksonville has trailed only 13% of the time this season, lowest in the league. Even as 2.5-point favorites here, teams in that range typically trail at a rate about 22% higher than what Jacksonville has experienced so far.
That matters because Rodriguez’s rushing share drops even further when the Jags are behind. He’s handled just 1 of their 20 designed rush attempts while trailing.
The matchup is also much tougher. Houston ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run, and Rodriguez is generally more likely to be used in short-yardage/goal-line situations anyway, which can help his TD equity but isn’t great for piling up rushing yards.
I have his median closer to 14.5 yards with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.
84
3-WAY PARLAY+340
0.15u
Correlated SGP I like here. Basically, the chances of going 3-0 or 0-3 are higher because all three legs are very connected, and I like all three individually too.
C.Rodriguez u16.5 Rush Yds-112
HOU
@JAC
10/18 1:30 PM
T.Lawrence o0.5 Int-128
HOU
@JAC
10/18 1:30 PM
HOU +124
HOU
@JAC
10/18 1:30 PM
69
D.Ward u4.5 Tackles + Ast-126
BAL
@
CLE
0.63u
10/18 5:00 PM
Ward has cleared this in 3 of 5 games, but he’s also faced about as tough a schedule as possible for an outside corner. Last week he piled up 7 tackles while spending a lot of the game matched up with Garrett Wilson, which is exactly the kind of matchup that can spike his tackle opportunities.
I think Baltimore with Tyler Huntley is a much tougher setup for him to get there. The Ravens can move Zay Flowers into the slot and away from Ward quite a bit, and I have Cleveland facing roughly 3 fewer completions than average here. That should leave Ward dealing with fewer targets overall, and more of the outside looks he does see could be lower-percentage shots downfield.
He can still mix in on some Derrick Henry runs to the perimeter or Huntley scrambles, so there are paths to tackles that don’t come through coverage. But I still think 4.5 is a tad too high for this specific matchup.
I have Ward closer to 3.9 tackles, with around a 63% chance to stay under 4.5.
53
C.Otton u30.5 Rec Yds-116
PIT
@
TB
0.58u
10/18 5:00 PM
Otton has gone for 37 and 25 yards in Jalon Daniels’ two starts, and I’m already expecting there to be fewer passing yards to go around with Daniels than we typically saw with Baker.
The more concerning trend for Otton came last week, though. His first-read target rate dropped from 23% to just 4% as Tampa designed a much higher percentage of the passing game around Emeka Egbuka and Kenny Gainwell.
That matters even more with Daniels under center because he’s going to scramble at one of the highest rates in the league. If Otton isn’t showing up early in the progression, there are going to be plenty of plays where Daniels simply takes off before ever getting to him. That could be a pretty meaningful hit to Otton’s expected target rate.
And even when Daniels has targeted him, the targets haven’t exactly been built for yardage. Otton’s average depth of target is just 3.5 yards with Daniels, a few yards lower than it was with Baker.
The market has Under 3.5 receptions around -150, which is pretty much in line with where I have it. That’s another reason I prefer attacking the yardage instead. If he finishes with three catches, I think he stays under 30.5 most of the time, and given how shallow the targets have been, there’s at least some path where even a fourth catch doesn’t automatically kill us.
I’m projecting his median closer to 27.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 30.5. I’m using an expected first-read rate around the average of Daniels’ two starts, so I’m not overreacting to that 4% from last week. But if even some of that trend carries over, Otton’s floor is quite a bit lower than my median projection suggests.
114
O.Cooper o13.5 Rec Yds-117
NYJ
@
NE
0.59u
10/18 5:00 PM
Cooper is tentatively expected to return after suffering an ankle injury back in Week 1. The first-round pick made an immediate impact before going down, catching 1 pass for 30 yards on just 2 routes.
Isaiah Williams, who Cooper beat out in the preseason, took over most of the slot work after the injury. Then once AD Mitchell went down, Williams started mixing into more of his snaps while Sterling Shepard handled most of the slot role. Last week Williams moved back inside, with Tim Patrick taking over more of AD’s role.
With AD still out and Cooper now returning, it’s pretty unclear exactly how this WR rotation shakes out. My guess is Cooper mixes in both outside and in the slot, and this is one of those situations with a really wide range of outcomes.
It absolutely wouldn’t shock me if they ease him back in and he plays limited snaps. But I also feel like I’m already being fairly conservative projecting a first-round pick who should eventually dominate snaps over Patrick/Williams-type players when fully healthy.
The game environment could help too. I have the Jets trailing at a much higher rate than usual here, which should naturally create more 3-WR sets, and if Christian Gonzalez is spending most of his time on Garrett Wilson that could help Cooper find some softer matchups elsewhere.
This is also one of those spots where I don’t want to get too fixated on a “median” projection for a rookie who has literally played 2 routes all season, is coming back from injury and is stepping into a WR rotation we haven’t seen yet.
I have Cooper’s median closer to 22 receiving yards, so I’m showing a ton of value on 13.5, but the range of outcomes is obviously massive. I could be too high or too low on his role, which is exactly why I think this is the kind of spot where taking a few alt overs makes sense too.
25+ yards +194
40+ yards +493
50+ yards +850
109
O.Cooper 25+ Receiving Yards Yes+194
NYJ
@NE
0.2u
10/18 5:00 PM
🪜
47
O.Cooper 40+ Receiving Yards Yes+493
NYJ
@NE
0.1u
10/18 5:00 PM
🪜
47
O.Cooper 50+ Receiving Yards Yes+850
NYJ
@NE
0.05u
10/18 5:00 PM
🪜
45
T.Shough u235.5 Pass Yds-112
NO
@
NYG
0.56u
10/18 5:00 PM
Very similar setup to the Daniel Jones under for me.
I’m projecting the Saints to play with the lead at a higher rate than they typically have, which should let them lean on the run more than usual and naturally pull down Shough’s pass volume.
I also still think there’s more rushing coming from Shough going forward. He hasn’t scrambled a ton yet, but that’s part of his game and any increase there only takes more potential production away from his passing yardage.
I have his median almost exactly where I had Jones, around 220.5 passing yards, with roughly a 59% chance to stay under 235.5.
It’s basically the same type of bet: favorable expected game script, a little less need to throw, and some hidden rushing upside that can eat into the passing projection.
93
D.Waller u29.5 Rec Yds-113
CAR
@
PHI
0.56u
10/18 5:00 PM
Waller has cleared this in three straight, and the only time he didn’t was Week 1 when he still had 28 yards in a more limited role against Chicago, so I’m sure the game-log chasers will be all over the over here.
But I think there’s some sneaky value on the under. And as always with Waller, I won’t be shocked if he just goes 4/50/2 and makes this look stupid either lol.
The biggest reason is Jalen Coker returning and getting closer to 100% coming off the Week 5 bye. I think Coker has quietly become one of the better, more underrated WRs in the league, so his return was always going to affect the other pass catchers. I suspected Waller might be one of them, but the splits were even more extreme than I expected.
In Week 3, Coker got knocked out right before halftime. At that point, Waller had 0 targets on 9 routes. With Coker out in the second half, Waller saw 7 targets on 19 routes.
On the season, Waller has just an 8.7% target rate with Coker healthy, compared to a 34% target rate in the second half of Week 3 plus Week 4 with Coker out.
Obviously I’m not projecting Waller anywhere close to a 9% target rate here lol, but I do think Coker’s return is a pretty meaningful hit to his between-the-20s usage. Waller has also caught 81% of his targets this season, so there should be some catch-rate regression coming too.
I have his median closer to 26 receiving yards, with potentially a little more downside if these Coker splits carry over more than I’m currently baking in.
And I specifically prefer fading his yardage. Waller catching a short TD early is completely fine for this bet. In fact, I could see them continuing to use him as more of a weapon in the red zone while Coker absorbs more of the work between the 20s, which is exactly the kind of role split that can help this under.
90
D.Jones u234.5 Pass Yds-113
TEN
@
IND
0.56u
10/18 5:00 PM
The Colts have trailed at the 7th-highest rate in the league this season, so getting a home game against Tennessee as 7-point favorites should create a pretty different game environment. Based on teams favored by 7, I have Indy projected to trail at a rate around 24% lower than usual, which should naturally push them a little more toward Jonathan Taylor and the run game.
The Titans also use Cover 4 on 33% of their snaps, the highest rate in the league, and Jones is averaging a career-low 5.6 yards per attempt against Cover 4 this season. Tennessee is obviously still a softer pass defense overall, but they’ve actually been excellent at limiting YAC, at the best rate in the league.
That matters even more with Alec Pierce out because Jones is leaning heavily on Josh Downs, Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren underneath. I could see him completing plenty of passes and moving the chains, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to a huge yardage day. Indy also calls a pass after throwing for a first down 13% below league expectations, so even successful passing plays may just lead right back into Taylor and the run game.
There’s also the rushing angle. Jones has basically been a mall Santa this year, which I expected coming off last season’s Achilles tear, but at some point he may start feeling spry enough to take off a little more. Any extra scrambling would only eat into the passing projection.
I have his median closer to 220.5 yards, which comes out to around a 59% chance to stay under 234.5. Passing yard markets naturally have a pretty wide range of outcomes, so the edge isn’t massive on paper, but I really like how all the underlying factors line up here as I go game by game updating my projections for our prop tool/dfs models/my fantasy rankings.
142
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series:
32 Teams. 32 Bets.
One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team.
First up: Arizona Cardinals
Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
32 team. 32 bets
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/bears-2026-props-luther-burden-iii
106
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.50u |
| Last 7 Days | 11-14-0 | 44% | 0.53u |
| Last 30 Days | 44-50-0 | 47% | 1.45u |
| All Time | 2361-1981-39 | 54% | 245.34u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1277-1032-20 | 55% | 140.09u |
| MLB | 391-350-7 | 52% | 45.08u |
| NCAAB | 313-254-3 | 55% | 31.47u |
| WNBA | 211-177-5 | 54% | 25.03u |
| NCAAF | 44-30-2 | 58% | 7.09u |
| World Baseball Classic | 2-0-0 | 100% | 1.00u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| World Cup | 1-2-0 | 33% | -0.25u |
| Golf | 9-21-0 | 30% | -0.42u |
| NBA | 108-106-2 | 50% | -3.45u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.