Experience
Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.
His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:
- It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
- He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
- He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position
Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.
Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.
He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.
Education
Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
More from Sean Koerner
Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For the Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions! | Action Island
Sean Koerner🔮's Picks
Today
Pending
D.Wicks u3.5 Recs+104
PHI
@
JAC
0.5u
10/11 1:30 PM
Last week gave us our first look at the Eagles WR rotation without DeVonta Smith and it played out pretty much how I expected: Darius Cooper essentially took over the Smith role, while Wicks and Lemon stayed in their usual spots.
Cooper obviously isn’t going to command the same target share as Smith, so everyone gets a little bump. But Wicks’ first-read rate actually fell to a season-low 13%, while Zach Ertz jumped all the way to 36%. Johnny Mundt was also out there running wind sprints on 59% of routes, and now Dallas Goedert is back.
That’s where this gets interesting. Goedert is obviously going to command way more targets than Mundt, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly leans into more 2TE+ sets with Goedert/Ertz, especially after losing Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens and with Smith still out. Add in Saquon being out and I could also see them using Will Shipley more in the pass game as an extension of the run.
My guess is Wicks/Cooper are used more to stretch Jacksonville vertically while Lemon, Goedert, Ertz and Shipley work underneath. Wicks’ aDOT was 15.1 yards in Weeks 1-3 before dropping to 7.8 last week, and I could see it moving back up here.
That’s why I want to fade receptions, not yards. If Wicks gets 3 catches for 60+ yards, great, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. I’m actually showing slight value on his receiving yards over.
I have him closer to 3.2 catches with around a 59% chance to stay under 3.5. And if the role shifts the way I think it might, his reception floor gets even lower while his yardage ceiling gets higher.
Sneaky reverse-correlation parlay would be Wicks Under 3.5 receptions + Over receiving yards.
94
J.Johnson u4.5 Recs-138
MIN
@
NO
0.69u
10/11 5:00 PM
Juwan has cleared this in back-to-back games, but I think this is a good sell-high spot.
The Saints have been stuck in trailing scripts and asking Shough to drop back a million times a game. That could obviously happen again and cook us, but as only 2-point dogs I’m expecting a much more neutral environment where they can lean on the run a bit more.
Then there’s Brian Flores, who has basically gone completely insane with the blitz this year at around 68%, while Minnesota is also generating pressure at one of the highest rates in the league. That matters because Juwan’s target rate drops from 19% with a clean pocket to 13% under pressure.
The Vikings also play zone at the highest rate in the league by far, and Juwan’s target rate drops from 25% against man to 15% against zone. That actually makes sense for him since he’s a former WR and much more of a man-beating pass-catching TE than your typical guy at the position.
Last week was also basically best case for his playing time with Noah Fant out, when Juwan ran a route on 75% of Shough’s dropbacks. With Fant back and rookie Oscar Delp starting to play more, I think that settles closer to 60-65%, and we could even see more 12 personnel with Fant/Delp since they’re better blockers against this ridiculous Vikings pressure package.
When Juwan does get targeted, those looks could also be a little more downfield than usual, which is why I’d much rather fade receptions than yards.
I have him closer to 3.9 catches with around a 64% chance to stay under 4.5.
96
K.Sadiq u32.5 Rec Yds-112
CLE
@
NYJ
0.56u
10/11 5:00 PM
It’s been a roller coaster two-game stretch for Sadiq after going 7/105/1 and then 0/0/0. I mentioned on Fantasy Flex that the eruption game was basically best case: AD Mitchell and Mason Taylor were both out, and he got the Lions defense. His underlying usage was still fine last week, but the Jets got crushed in time of possession, so this would normally be a pretty obvious buy-low spot on who I still think is the most talented TE in this rookie class.
There are just too many things working against him here.
Mason Taylor returns, and while he’s not a huge threat to Sadiq’s target share, he does matter for playing time. Sadiq averaged just a 41% routes run rate with Taylor active the first two weeks and 62% with him out. I’m projecting closer to 55% here, and even that might be a little generous.
The Browns also play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and Sadiq still doesn’t have a catch on 9 routes against Cover 1. A lot of his production has come underneath with yards after the catch, which gets tougher against man. He’s also produced more when Geno is pressured, but a lot of that came against Detroit, where the pressure comes with a much softer secondary. Browns secondary is much better than the Lions.
The game script could work against him too. The Jets are rare 2.5-point favorites, so I’m expecting a more run-heavy environment, especially if Watson’s interception luck finally catches up to him. Add in the chance of rain, and most of the underlying factors are pointing the same way.
The main thing Sadiq has going for him is that he’s really talented. But I have him closer to 27.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 32.5.
123
C.White o19.5 Rec Yds-114
LV
@
NE
0.57u
10/11 5:00 PM
Cody White and Efton Chism are both sneaky candidates for expanded roles in this game with Jalen Nailor and Mack Hollins out, but I’m showing more value on White and think his path is clearer. When Nailor left last week, White took over his role and was even playing ahead of Tre Tucker in certain situations. His underlying numbers have quietly been solid, and I’m projecting him to run a route on around 60% of Cousins’ dropbacks, which is a massive playing-time boost. He also came over from Seattle with Klint Kubiak, who clearly thinks highly of him.
Vegas uses a ton of 2-3 TE personnel, but they’ve also barely played from behind. As 3.5-point road dogs, I have them projected to trail at a 31% higher rate, which should mean more passing and potentially more 3-WR sets. New England is also missing both starting CBs Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, making the matchup much friendlier.
I wanted this before Jeanty is potentially ruled out because that could easily add a couple yards to White’s number. I have his median closer to 25.5 yards with around a 60% chance to clear 19.5.
I also like 40+ yards at +293. I have that closer to +210, and with White’s wide range of outcomes/upside, that feels like the sweet spot for an alt over. I still show some value at 50+, but 60+ is much closer to the book price.
142
C.White 40+ Receiving Yards Yes+293
LV
@NE
0.1u
10/11 5:00 PM
🪜
79
M.Lloyd o2.5 Recs+125
CHI
@
GB
0.4u
10/11 5:00 PM
Chris Brooks is out, and we saw Lloyd take over most of his passing-down work last week. After Brooks left, Lloyd ran a route on 50% of Love’s dropbacks and went 5/36/0 receiving, so I like that role carrying over.
The other thing I like is that Lloyd has seen a high rate of designed targets/screens. Those are much stickier week to week and obviously much easier to complete than normal RB targets. He hasn’t done much with them after the catch, which is why I’d rather attack receptions than yards.
Green Bay is also a home dog, so there’s a real chance we get a trailing/hurry-up script where Lloyd’s role becomes even more valuable. And these RB catches can come in bunches. In a 2-minute drill, Love could easily hit the checkdown on back-to-back plays if Chicago is sitting off.
I have Lloyd closer to 3.0 catches with around a 57% chance to clear 2.5, so getting +125 is attractive.
I’m laddering this too because the upside gets pretty interesting if Green Bay is chasing points:
4+ receptions +336 (proj. +185)
5+ receptions +790 (proj. +460)
That feels like the sweet spot. The value drops off quite a bit at 6+, where I have him closer to +1200.
137
M.Lloyd 4+ Receptions Yes+336
CHI
@GB
0.1u
10/11 5:00 PM
🪜
83
M.Lloyd 5+ Receptions Yes+790
CHI
@GB
0.05u
10/11 5:00 PM
🪜
79
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series:
32 Teams. 32 Bets.
One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team.
First up: Arizona Cardinals
Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
32 team. 32 bets
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/bears-2026-props-luther-burden-iii
106
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.50u |
| Last 7 Days | 12-6-0 | 67% | 3.25u |
| Last 30 Days | 41-44-0 | 48% | 0.50u |
| All Time | 2350-1967-39 | 54% | 244.81u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1267-1018-20 | 55% | 140.06u |
| MLB | 391-350-7 | 52% | 45.08u |
| NCAAB | 313-254-3 | 55% | 31.47u |
| WNBA | 211-177-5 | 54% | 25.03u |
| NCAAF | 43-30-2 | 57% | 6.60u |
| World Baseball Classic | 2-0-0 | 100% | 1.00u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| World Cup | 1-2-0 | 33% | -0.25u |
| Golf | 9-21-0 | 30% | -0.42u |
| NBA | 108-106-2 | 50% | -3.45u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.