Experience
Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.
His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:
- It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
- He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
- He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position
Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.
Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.
He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.
Education
Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
More from Sean Koerner
Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For the Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions! | Action Island
Sean Koerner🔮's Picks
Today
Pending
K.Cousins u240.5 Pass Yds-111
LV
@
NYJ
0.56u
11/01 6:00 PM
I’m on a tighter schedule today, so this may be the only pick I have time to give a full note on.
Cousins has cleared this number in 6 straight games, which is exactly why this feels a little trap-y to me.
After starting 0-3, the Raiders have now lost four straight, and this is right around the point where I figured we might start getting closer to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza making his first career start. The problem is their schedule gets brutal after this, and I can’t imagine they want his debut coming at San Francisco or at home against Seattle.
The most likely outcome is still Cousins playing the entire game and this staying relatively close. In that script, Las Vegas should be more balanced and may finally be able to get its awful run game going against a weaker Jets defense that is also missing three defensive linemen, including first-round pick David Bailey.
Cousins has also been much less productive when playing from ahead, averaging just 5.8 YPA with the lead compared to 8.2 when trailing. So the close/positive script that should help the Raiders also happens to be the tougher setup for him to pile up passing yards.
And if we get the opposite script, where Cousins struggles or Vegas falls behind in the 2nd half, there’s at least a non-zero chance Mendoza enters the game. I’m not saying that’s 100%, or even the most likely outcome. The point is simply that the probability is above 0%, which gives this under a nice little escape hatch if the game starts turning into the exact pass heavy script that has fueled Cousins’ overs lately.
I hit a bunch of pass yard unders in similar spots last year for basically this exact reason. Either we get the more balanced game script that naturally lowers Cousins’ volume, or things go badly enough that Mendoza becomes a possibility.
These are tricky to assign a true median to, but I like how both ends of the game-script distribution can feed into Cousins’ floor here.
100
T.Allgeier u16.5 Rush Yds-113
ARI
@
DAL
0.56u
11/01 6:00 PM
Bam Knight took a slight lead in what was already a pretty split committee last week, and now Jeremiyah Love is returning, so Allgeier could be cooked.
I’m guessing he still mixes in for short yardage and passing situations, but that only lowers his floor in this market.
I have his median closer to 13.5 yards and would price Under 16.5 closer to -145.
100
M.Penix o1.5 Rush Yds-119
ATL
@
TB
0.6u
11/01 6:00 PM
Don’t get me wrong, Penix is absolutely in the exclusive “Mall Santa” 🎅 club right now. He’s going to sit in the pocket and scramble at one of the lowest rates in the league.
But every Mall Santa has his reasons. For Penix, it’s partly just not his game, plus the multiple ACL surgeries, including last season, and then the rib injury in Week 5. So it makes sense that he’s been cautious.
Still, he’s scrambled at least once in each of the last few weeks, and two of those scrambles hit 15+ mph according to Next Gen Stats. He has more juice than people realize. He’s not Jared Goff running like he has two torn hammys.
His season-long rushing line is 12 carries for 4 yards, which looks horrific until you realize 7 of those 12 carries are kneel-downs, despite him only having 5 starts. Another was a bad snap he had to fall on for no gain.
So the box score is making him look even more immobile than he actually is. I really just need one 2-3 yard scramble, and being a road dog helps reduce the kneel-down risk. He also looks a little more willing to use his legs lately as he gets healthier.
I don’t need much for Christmas, Santa, but 2+ yards would be a nice stocking stuffer.
115
D.Boston u3.5 Recs-125
CLE
@
PIT
0.63u
11/01 6:00 PM
Wrote about this same prop the other week and I’m going right back to it.
Never, ever fade his receiving yards prop. Only his receptions prop for now.
I have Under 3.5 closer to -160.
118
J.Warren u25.5 Rec Yds-114
CLE
@PIT
0.57u
11/01 6:00 PM
Game log chasers are probably frothing at the mouth since he’s cleared this in every game this season lol
But Pittsburgh used Dowdle a bit more last week in a Kenny Gainwell-lite type role, which could take some receiving work off Warren’s plate. Warren has been so good as a runner this year and I expect him to rip a couple big runs against a leaky Browns run defense, while Cleveland has been much better at limiting RB receiving production.
I have his median closer to 22 yards.
97
J.Taylor u60.5 Rush Yds-115
IND
@
JAC
0.57u
11/01 6:00 PM
Game-log chasers will point out JT has cleared this in 7 of 8 games, and obviously I won’t be shocked if one of the greatest RBs of this era does it again. But this is the lowest projection/floor I’ve had for him in quite some time.
There’s a ton of uncertainty around a potential trade, and after Indy already dealt Quenton Nelson, the writing feels like it’s on the wall. Seth McGowan also saw season-high usage last week in a close, one-score game, which could be the Colts tipping their hand that they want to limit JT and avoid an injury before the deadline.
Now they’re 10-point road dogs against the No. 1 run defense by DVOA, while the OL just lost Nelson. If Indy falls behind by multiple scores, there’s a very real path where they essentially put JT on ice.
I have him closer to 55.5 yards, with an even lower floor depending on game script. Other books are already dropping into the mid-50s, so I want to get ahead of it at 60.5 before this gets steamed down.
137
C.Rodriguez Anytime TD Scorer Yes+340
IND
@JAC
0.1u
11/01 6:00 PM
One of the top ATD edges in the prop tool right now and for good reason. If there were ever a time/matchup to take CRod ATD, it’s here. Proj closer to +250
163
D.Walker u2.5 Rec Yds-112
BAL
@
BUF
0.84u
11/01 6:00 PM
Two-part play here. My main bet is Walker Under 2.5 receiving yards.
With the WR room finally healthy, Ja’Kobi Lane has pushed Walker into a very limited WR4 role. Rookie TE Josh Cuevas is also breaking out a bit, and with him/Hibner involved I think there are even fewer routes available for Walker.
The catch is Walker almost exclusively sees low-percentage downfield shots. His 23.5 aDOT is somehow the lowest of his 3-year career lol, so if he does catch one, he tends to make it count.
That creates a really weird distribution. In 10,000 sims, his average is 9.73 yards but his median is 0. I have him around 65% to stay Under 2.5, but also around 25% to clear 20+, which is closer to +300.
It reminds me of the Josh Palmer bet earlier this year where I basically said he was going 0/0/0 or 1/40/1, and of course we got the latter.
So I’m putting 0.75u on Under 2.5 and 0.15u on 20+ at +400. I love the under, but this is the cleanest way to protect against the exact type of one catch nuke that can beat it.
On PM’s like Kalshi under 0.5 rec is the way to go not the 10+ no market. Again, either going 0/0 or 1/20+ is the logic here
71
D.Walker 20+ Receiving Yards Yes+400
BAL
@BUF
0.15u
11/01 6:00 PM
Read Under 2.5 rec yds pick note to understand what’s going on here
52
C.Benford u4.5 Tackles + Ast-134
BAL
@BUF
0.67u
11/01 6:00 PM
Proj -170
33
J.Burrow u35.5 Pass Att-110
TEN
@
CIN
0.55u
11/01 6:00 PM
141
2-WAY PARLAY+355
0.15u
I fully expect Burrow to torch Tennessee, especially after the Titans traded Jeffery Simmons. He should have a squeaky-clean pocket, complete a high percentage of his passes and potentially build an early 1-2 score lead, which can really lower his pass-attempt floor.
Oddly enough, Burrow has also been scrambling from clean pockets at a much higher rate, which can eat into attempts as well. With Carnell Tate looking doubtful, it’s even tougher to see Ward and the Titans keeping this close. Great spot for Cincinnati to eventually lean on its defense and run game.
I project Burrow closer to 33.8 attempts and love Under 35.5 -110 at BetMGM. 37+ NO at 57¢ on Kalshi is also excellent value with the extra attempt included. That’ll be my main prop from this game and I’ll track it solo shortly.
But I also love pairing it with Drew Sample Over 1.5 receptions because I can’t think of a more electric sweat than Drew Sample overs lol.
With Tanner Hudson and Erick All now on IR, the Bengals TE room is getting pretty thin and Sample’s playing time should climb. He also tends to get high-percentage looks for basically no yardage, so something like 2/10/0 is very much in play.
I love getting the anti-correlation boost in the parlay price, because I actually think there’s sneaky positive correlation in the game script. If Cincinnati builds the lead I’m expecting, Burrow’s attempts should come down while Sample is one of the players they tend to use more when playing from ahead.
J.Burrow u35.5 Pass Att-124
TEN
@CIN
11/01 6:00 PM
D.Sample o1.5 Recs+140
TEN
@CIN
11/01 6:00 PM
73
2-WAY PARLAY+258
0.2u
Benford will be a solo play shortly. Baltimore is a brutal matchup for outside CB tackles, and I’d price his Under 4.5 closer to -170.
Walker gets the opposite setup. He helps a ton in run support, which fits this matchup much better, and I’d price his Over 3.5 closer to -125.
Nice little correlated tackle parlay at +258
C.Benford u4.5 Tackles + Ast-134
BAL
@BUF
11/01 6:00 PM
D.Walker o3.5 Tackles + Ast+115
BAL
@BUF
11/01 6:00 PM
29
M.Taaffe u5.5 Tackles + Ast-104
NE
@
MIA
0.52u
11/01 9:25 PM
Taaffe has the 8th highest missed tackle rate on run plays among 99 qualified safeties.
Even if I assume the rookie regresses to a league average missed tackle rate going forward, I’d still price this Under 5.5 closer to -150.
If some of that elevated missed tackle rate is actually more skill issue than bad luck (probably a blend of both), then there’s even more value here than my projection is showing.
49
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series:
32 Teams. 32 Bets.
One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team.
First up: Arizona Cardinals
Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
32 team. 32 bets
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/bears-2026-props-luther-burden-iii
106
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 15-11-0 | 58% | 3.03u |
| Last 30 Days | 52-55-0 | 49% | 5.64u |
| All Time | 2390-2015-39 | 54% | 247.71u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1306-1062-20 | 55% | 144.36u |
| MLB | 391-351-7 | 52% | 44.40u |
| NCAAB | 313-254-3 | 55% | 31.47u |
| WNBA | 211-177-5 | 54% | 25.03u |
| NCAAF | 44-31-2 | 57% | 6.59u |
| World Baseball Classic | 2-0-0 | 100% | 1.00u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| World Cup | 1-2-0 | 33% | -0.25u |
| Golf | 9-21-0 | 30% | -0.42u |
| NBA | 108-107-2 | 50% | -4.14u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.