Experience
Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.
His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:
- It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
- He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
- He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position
Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.
Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.
He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.
Education
Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
More from Sean Koerner
Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For the Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions! | Action Island
Sean Koerner🔮's Picks
Today
Pending
C.Stroud u22.5 Pass Comp-140
NYG
@
HOU
0.7u
10/25 5:00 PM
No time for a full writeup here, but I have Stroud projected closer to 20.7 completions and around a 64% chance to stay under 22.5.
I still like Under 21.5 -107 as well at around 57%, but I’m taking the extra cushion here. I think I’ve lost something like three completion props by 0.5 this year despite basically getting the worst-case game script in all of them, so I’m fine paying a little more for 22.5.
The obvious way this gets torched is if the Giants somehow jump out to a 10-0 lead early with JJ McCarthy under center and force Houston into a pass heavy script.
I’m basically betting against that.
54
C.McCaffrey u15.5 Rush Att-128
SF
@
ATL
0.64u
10/25 5:00 PM
The 6-0 49ers are “only” 2.5-point favorites here, so there’s at least a chance they end up in a rarer trailing game script than we’ve seen so far.
Either way, I’m expecting San Francisco’s overall rushing volume to come down a bit, and with the WR room so banged up now that Mike Evans is out, I could see more snaps with CMC and Black on the field together, with McCaffrey flexed out into the slot/at WR and Black handling the backfield work.
Using CMC more as a pass catcher and extension of the run game makes a lot of sense here instead of just banging him 16+ times on the ground. Black can take some of that early down work, keep CMC a little fresher and still let them manufacture touches for him through the air.
The 49ers also use Purdy on QB sneaks in short yardage spots, which takes away another path to extra carries.
I have CMC closer to 14.5 rushing attempts, with around a 61% chance to stay under 15.5.
90
Z.Branch o1.5 Recs+144
SF
@ATL
0.35u
10/25 5:00 PM
Going out on a “limb” here with Branch, who I’ve been referring to as Temu Zay Flowers.
He’s still mostly a gadget/return guy with a limited offensive role as a rookie, which was expected. But we’ve seen his playing time trend up, and when he is on the field they’re using him in motion a ton and actually designing looks for him.
That’s why the 26% 1st read rate stands out. His targets tend to be high percentage stuff underneath, so I actually prefer Over 1.5 receptions at plus money to his 7.5 rec yard line.
Olamide Zaccheaus is also banged up and questionable. If he’s out, this obviously gets even better, but even if he’s just limited I’d expect that to mean a few more snaps for Branch.
I have 2+ catches closer to a coin flip
98
J.Metchie o9.5 Rec Yds-118
TB
@
CAR
0.59u
10/25 5:00 PM
With Xavier Legette out, Metchie has quietly been the more stable WR3 in this offense.
Brycen Tremayne was the clear WR2 while Jalen Coker was sidelined, but once Coker returned last week, Tremayne slid back to WR4 while Metchie essentially stayed in the same role. That makes me a little more confident that Metchie is the one filling the Legette spot rather than just temporarily benefiting from Coker’s absence.
And I think he has enough talent to potentially hang onto some of that work even once Legette returns.
There’s nowhere near the same upside as the Omar Cooper Jr. spot last week, but at 9.5 yards he doesn’t need much. I think the market is still underrating him a bit while naturally focusing most of the attention on T-Mac and Coker, who is quickly becoming one of the better young WR duos in the league.
I’m fine sprinkling some alt overs too if you want to get a little more aggressive. I also took Metchie at 11/1 on the TD Show, so clearly I’m buying the role a bit more than the market right now.
131
G.Helm u10.5 Longest Reception-128
CLE
@
TEN
0.64u
10/25 5:00 PM
One of those gross ones that’s better to have when there are 500 games going on at once. If it loses, it’ll be on one play and we rip the Band-Aid right off. If it cashes, nobody will ever remember I made the bet or why I wrote more than 10 words about it lol
Helm’s usage has cratered the last few weeks, and this is also a game where Tennessee may actually be able to play with the lead or at least lean on the run more than usual.
He could still catch a few underneath, but he has just one catch of 11+ yards all season, and that went for only 12. Cleveland also plays a ton of man coverage, which should mean someone is usually accounting for Helm and make it tougher for him to shake free 10+ yards downfield.
I have his longest reception closer to 8 yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 10.5.
74
M.Taylor u21.5 Rec Yds-115
MIA
@
NYJ
0.57u
10/25 5:00 PM
Feels like a decent time to sell high after Taylor benefited from Sadiq getting knocked out of Week 5 with a concussion and likely being somewhat limited in Week 6 because of it.
Even if Taylor’s routes run rate stays around the 55% range, I think his target share should come back down with Omar Cooper back in a full-time role and AD Mitchell returning.
That just creates more competition for targets than Taylor had the last couple weeks.
I have him closer to 18.5 receiving yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 21.5.
106
O.Gordon o54.5 Rush Yds-113
MIA
@NYJ
0.56u
10/25 5:00 PM
Gordon has been way better than I expected since taking over as the lead back with Achane done for the season.
Miami is still a very run-heavy offense despite somehow not running a single play with the lead all year. As “only” 4.5-point dogs here, there’s at least a decent chance that finally changes. It literally can’t get worse than a 0% lead rate either way lol. His volume would go way up in a more neutral game script.
This is also a sneaky good matchup against the Jets. I’m aware Kaytron Allen could make his Miami debut here, but I’d expect him to eat more into Jaylen Wright’s role than Gordon’s.
I have Gordon closer to 60.5 rushing yards with around a 60% chance to clear 54.5.
This is also the type of over where I think the upside is better than the median makes it look, so I’m fine dabbling with alt overs/ladder props too.
I’m probably going to end up with 20+ bets for tomorrow, so keeping the notes shorter today. Just enough context for why I’m on the side I’m on and then moving to the next one lol
139
C.Robinson o0.25 Sacks+191
MIA
@NYJ
0.25u
10/25 5:00 PM
Chop is popping in my Sack Lunch model as one of the better buy-low sack candidates this week.
He’s been one of the best edge rushers in the league at generating pressure, especially quick pressure, but only has 1 sack to show for it. I have him closer to 3.1 expected sacks, so the underlying production has been much better than the box score.
This also looks like a good matchup to finally cash in on some of that pressure against Geno Smith. I have the sack market closer to +135, so I like the value here.
Also taking a small flier on 2+ sacks at +1480, which I have closer to 10/1.
42
C.Robinson To Record 2+ Sacks Yes+1480
MIA
@NYJ
0.04u
10/25 5:00 PM
🪜
24
J.Addison o18.5 Longest Reception-117
IND
@
MIN
0.59u
10/25 5:00 PM
Proj closer to 20.5 and 59% chance to clear 18.5
114
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series:
32 Teams. 32 Bets.
One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team.
First up: Arizona Cardinals
Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
32 team. 32 bets
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/bears-2026-props-luther-burden-iii
106
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 14-23-0 | 38% | -0.66u |
| Last 30 Days | 49-61-0 | 45% | 1.83u |
| All Time | 2375-2004-39 | 54% | 244.68u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1291-1052-20 | 55% | 141.30u |
| MLB | 391-351-7 | 52% | 44.40u |
| NCAAB | 313-254-3 | 55% | 31.47u |
| WNBA | 211-177-5 | 54% | 25.03u |
| NCAAF | 44-31-2 | 57% | 6.59u |
| World Baseball Classic | 2-0-0 | 100% | 1.00u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| World Cup | 1-2-0 | 33% | -0.25u |
| Golf | 9-21-0 | 30% | -0.42u |
| NBA | 108-107-2 | 50% | -4.14u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.