Sean Koerner

Projecting him closer to 18.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 21.5

Coming off a massive 9 tackle game but that was on 80 snaps against the Bengals which is a great matchup for CBs. Expected to face way less volume here and Pit is terrible for CBs in terms of tackle opps and I’m expecting LB Roquan Smith to get the biggest boost from this matchup. Projecting this closer to 4.1 with around a 61% chance to stay under 4.5

Bech has had a very disappointing rookie season, but it’s usually not smart to completely write off a 2nd round WR 12 games into their career. I wasn’t expecting Bech to do much up to this point anyway. But with Thornton and Mayer ruled out for this game I’m expecting him to see a massive increase in usage here. Projecting him closer to 25.5 with around a 58% chance to clear 21.5

After losing his rec yards prop in brutal fashion last week by 0.5 yard, I’m going to stick with the market I think suits him better anyway. When evaluating rookie WRs, it’s always important to look at both talent and landing spot. Tet McMillan and Emeka Egbuka were two of the top WRs of this year’s class and landed in ideal situations to produce right away. Both benefited from trades or injuries that elevated their usage even more. Burden, on the other hand, was a fringe 1st round talent who landed in a very crowded room of pass catchers with limited passing yards to go around. That was always going to make him easy to overlook. I’m not saying he’s the same talent as CeeDee Lamb or JSN, but I’ve pointed out he could have a similar career arc where he starts behind 2+ established WRs, then eventually sees a production jump as injuries happen or the team moves on from someone like DJ Moore. He recently passed Olamide Zaccheus to become the team’s #3 WR, but he has still been topping out around a 60–65% routes-run rate. With Rome Odunze ruled out this week, we could see his first game in a more full-time role, potentially 80%+ routes, and with one fewer high-end WR to compete for targets with. This is the type of stretch where I’m expecting Burden to show more of a true breakout. The matchup is brutal, but the Bears may be forced to throw at a higher rate, and they clearly want to find ways to get the ball in his hands, as we saw with the pop-pass look last week. This is the better market to invest in his upside, and I’m projecting him closer to a 62% chance to clear 3.5 receptions.

Proj closer to 5.9 with around a 62% chance to stay under 6.5

Has yet to miss a kick this year that hasn’t hit a wire/cable. Projecting closer to a 60% chance he gets 2+

Oluokun has bounced back after a down 2024 season, and his median this year has been 8.5 tackles. The Colts have been a below-average matchup for LBs, but I found another underlying factor that supports why I’m showing value on the under here. Oluokun has recorded a tackle on 25.0% of his run defense snaps against runs outside the tackles this season, tied for the highest rate among LBs. On runs between the tackles, he has made a tackle on just 13.9% of his run defense snaps, the 5th-lowest rate among inside LBs. The Jags have seen 45% of opponents’ runs go inside the tackles, which is right around league average. However, Jonathan Taylor runs inside the tackles on 54% of his attempts, and the Colts as a team run inside on 53% of their attempts, the 7th-highest rate in the league. I looked at how many tackles Oluokun racked up versus how often opponents run inside, and the correlation is strong. In the 5 games where he faced a team that runs outside at a 53%+ rate, he averaged 9.2 tackles. In the 5 games against teams that run inside 53%+ of the time, he’s averaged 6.8 tackles, and the Colts fit into that latter bucket. I’m projecting him closer to 7.9 tackles here with around a 60% chance to stay under 8.5.

Projecting him closer to 75.5 with around a 59% chance he clears 69.5

He’s the ball carrier in their version of the Tush Push and has been incredibly effective with a 89% success rate (highest for any player with at least 5+ carries) + he’s the lead pass catching TE. They let him get a rush TD at the goal-line a few weeks ago and I would expect maybe 1-2 more of those for him over the final several weeks. Still think the market is a bit behind in his sneaky upside in this market right now. Projecting him closer to +180

He’s stayed under this number 67% of the time this year. Elliss has rushed the passer 131 times this year which tops LBs and takes him out of tackle opps a LB would typically see, plus he’s been good in coverage. Seattle has been a below average matchup for LBs too. Projecting him closer to 7.4 tackles and a 66% chance to stay under 8.5

Should see some snow in this game and while this is a plus matchup could see them run more here. Allen has only thrown downfield once over the last two games and had a career low 1.4 air yards per pass attempt last week. Should be the cleanest pocket he’s seen all season and his AY/att is just 6.1 when clean vs 12.3 when facing pressure. So expecting a lot of throws underneath + runs here