Cowboys vs. Texans Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026

There may be some value on the pass attempts prop for C.J. Stroud. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 37.52 pass attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 33.90. The model believes there is a 72% chance he records at least 31.5 pass attempts, so there is value on the over at +101. This play is good down to at least -164. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Despite DeMarvion Overshown being out last week, no Cowboys LB played more than 80% of the snaps, so they still treated it like a committee. There’s definitely some risk one of these guys jumps closer to a full-time role, but my guess would be rookie Jaishawn Barham since he’s apparently the one wearing the green dot. Winters has cleared this in back-to-back games and is averaging 8 tackles over that stretch, but it’s also been pretty close to a best-case environment. Dallas has faced a league-high 35.7 rush attempts per game. Even though I’m betting Stroud’s under because I expect Houston to be much more run heavy than it has been, I still have Dallas facing around 8-9 fewer rush attempts than its season average. There’s some regression baked into Winters’ efficiency too. He has a 0% missed tackle rate on runs after typically being around 15% for his career, while also allowing career highs in target and catch rate, which has helped prop up the tackles he’s getting in coverage. The playing-time uncertainty is the obvious risk here, but even accounting for a potentially bigger role I have his median closer to 5.5 tackles with around a 62% chance to stay under 6.5. Sneaky sell-high spot despite the possibility his role grows.

Doing my deep dive/projection update for this game, the clearest theme is that Houston’s passing volume has been inflated by game script. They’ve been extremely pass heavy through three weeks and Stroud is averaging 40+ attempts per game, but they’re also 0-3 and have spent a ton of time playing from behind. As 3-point home favorites, I’m expecting a much more favorable script and have Houston projected to play with the lead at a much higher rate. There’s obviously a chance Dallas jumps out early and I lose this thing by 0.5 in some tragic fashion again lol, but if these expected game scripts are even remotely right, more of these should start falling our way. I’m also expecting Stroud to be much more efficient against this disaster Cowboys defense, especially with Nico Collins back. Joey Porter Jr. should help them eventually, but if he’s active it’s hard to imagine him playing the full game or immediately knowing every assignment. And honestly, the bigger issue is the DC anyway, so I don’t think Porter suddenly fixes everything in his debut. Long completions to Nico are great for this under because they move the ball without piling up attempts, and playing from ahead should naturally push Houston toward the run. The overall theme I’m seeing here is more Houston rushing and a more efficient Texans offense, so I’m just going right to the source with Stroud’s attempts. Monty overs and Boutte under receptions are the types of props that also correlate with how I see this game playing out.

@GDAWG5000 https://youtu.be/ALbO3dG7TwU?is=7OQ_SgvqMnElDfWP

@Stuckey2 https://youtu.be/3zlHdfn163U?is=HRHNRmeLuDMKMRy5

Week 4 Lookahead at Brandon’s playground Week 3 bets