We got ourselves an NFC East matchup tonight with the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles opening the new season on Thursday, Sept. 4.
Our football experts Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon are aligned on an NFL prop bet for Thursday Night Football as they are both fading Cowboys running back Javonte Williams.
NFL Prop Bets: Javonte Williams
By Sean Koerner
The Cowboys enter 2025 with one of the league’s weakest backfields, rolling with Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue.
Williams, the former Bronco, is slated to start Week 1 against the Eagles, but I expect Sanders and/or Blue to mix in — this could quickly turn into a hot-hand approach.
That puts pressure on Williams, who has not looked the same since his 2022 ACL tear, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry over the past two seasons. That was behind a strong Denver offensive line, which makes the move to Dallas an even bigger downgrade for him.
Williams has especially struggled creating yards after contact, ranking 55th out of 58 qualified RBs last season with just 2.38 yards after contact per attempt. Now he faces an Eagles defense that allowed the sixth-lowest yards before contact (1.14) in 2024. That’s a bad combination for a back who already struggles to generate his own yards.
On top of that, Dallas could look for creative ways to spark the run game, including giving KaVontae Turpin more touches as a hybrid WR/RB option.
Game script also works against Williams. The Cowboys are likely to be trailing, facing an Eagles team that led the league in time of possession last season and is perfectly built to bleed the clock. Fewer plays and a pass-heavy script means fewer rushing opportunities.
This is a low-floor situation for Williams in a difficult matchup.
I’m projecting him closer to 33.5 yards, with about a 60% chance he stays under 38.5. In this range, every yard is worth roughly 2%.
Editor's Note: The line has since moved to an over/under of 34.5 yards.
Chris Raybon: Despite the line moving from the 38.5 that Koerner grabbed, I still like this bet at under 34.5 yards, which is available on bet365.
Williams rushed for 28 yards or fewer in 12-of-18 games last year despite operating as the Broncos' RB1 and playing 55% of snaps. The Eagles defense allowed 4.08 yards per carry to running backs last year, which was the sixth-best mark in the NFL.
