Experience
Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.
His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:
- It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
- He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
- He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position
Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.
Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.
He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.
Education
Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
More from Sean Koerner
Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For Dolphins vs. Bills! | Action Island
Sean Koerner🔮's Picks
Today
B.Allen o17.5 Rush Yds-113
NYJ
@
TEN
0.56u
09/13 5:00 PM
The Toilet Bowl is one of the trickier games to cap this week, but this is the play I kept coming back to. It’s not really a math-driven bet as much as a “Week 1 has a ton of uncertainty and I think this spot benefits from it” type of play. Allen missed most of last season with an MCL injury, but he’s 100% healthy now and looked sharp in camp and limited preseason action. He reportedly got up to around 250 pounds in June while saying he had added muscle and was at the lowest body-fat percentage of his career. So he might be the closest thing we have to Derrick Henry, and his role is similar in that he’s primarily an early-down/short-yardage hammer. Breece Hall is still the clear lead back and should be healthy, but he missed a lot of camp with a groin injury, so there could be more spots than usual where the Jets give him a breather.
The other thing I like is game script. The Jets are constantly playing from behind, which usually caps Allen’s workload, but this is one of the rare spots where the game is closer to a coin flip. I have the Jets projected to play with the lead at a whopping 21% higher rate than they did last season, which quietly gives Allen more paths to extra carries. Titans LB Cedric Gray is also out, which is a meaningful loss for their run defense. My cautious projection has Allen around 19 rushing yards with roughly a 55% chance to clear 17.5, but this is one of those Week 1 spots where I think the upside is higher than the raw projection suggests. That’s also why on prediction markets I’d rather attack Temu Derrick Henry’s 20+ rushing-yard market than settle for 15+.
194
A.Iosivas u1.5 Recs-114
TB
@
CIN
0.57u
09/13 5:00 PM
I’ve considered Yoshi a sneaky ATD bet over the last couple of seasons, but he’s a player I’m looking to fade in Week 1 based on a few things that could be different this year. The Bengals should still be very pass heavy, but they are planning on being bit more balanced this year, especially if the defense improves (which I’m guessing it does). They may also use more TE-heavy personnel (which would eat Into his playing time) and take more snaps under center, which is especially interesting because Iosivas’ target rate absolutely cratered to just 5% on under-center snaps last year. The Bucs also tend to blitz at a high rate under Todd Bowles, and his target rate dropped to just 8% against the blitz. I was also really impressed with fourth-round rookie Colbie Young, who may not factor in right away but could become a threat to Iosivas’ role as the season goes on.
I’m projecting this closer to 1.4 receptions with around a 59% chance to stay under 1.5. I wouldn’t fade his yardage since he tends to get downfield or end-zone targets, so receptions is the specific market I want to attack. It’s a wide range of outcomes on a low prop, but these are exactly the types of Week 1 spots I love, where digging into personnel changes, potential scheme shifts, camp/preseason and recent news can give us an edge before we just wait around for a week of data to tell us what changed.
191
J.Jeudy u31.5 Rec Yds-109
CLE
@
JAC
0.55u
09/13 5:00 PM
Jeudy only commanded a target on 19% of his routes last season, and that was with very little competition for WR targets. His main competition was Cedric Tillman, Isaiah Bond and Malachi Corley. Cleveland added two talented rookies in KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, and KC is the one I think could matter immediately. He gets open, earns targets and should command more looks than any of Jeudy’s WR competition from last year, even if the drop issues show up at times. Fannin should also be better in Year 2 and continue commanding a healthy target share, while Dylan Sampson can soak up underneath looks when he’s on the field. And, of course, it’s Deshaun Watson driving this clown car in Week 1.
The main risk is simply Jeudy getting enough volume to clear this, which is obviously possible. There’s also a chance Cleveland tries to feature him early if they view him as a potential trade chip before the deadline. I’m already projecting him closer to what I’d consider his ceiling in terms of playing time, though, and still only get him around 27 receiving yards with roughly a 57% chance to stay under 31.5.
136
C.Rush u18.5 Pass Comp-120
ATL
@
PIT
0.6u
09/13 5:00 PM
There aren’t any Jack Strand markets to bet on because Atlanta opted to go with Cooper Rush over the talented UDFA, but I still think Strand matters for this prop. With Tua out, I’d expect the Falcons to shift the game plan a bit. Instead of scheming a ton of quick screens to Bijan and even Kyle Pitts, they may lean more on direct handoffs to Bijan and mix in the occasional play-action shot with Rush. Rush isn’t a good QB, but he’s also not someone you need to protect with quick throws on every snap, and you probably aren’t as worried about the ramifications of him taking a hit. Just looking through his career game logs, 18.5 completions already feels a little high.
There’s obviously a ton of Week 1 uncertainty here, but I think most of it helps the under. If Atlanta keeps this close, I’d expect a run-heavy game plan, especially with Pittsburgh likely playing at a snail’s pace on the other side. If the Falcons fall behind and Rush is forced into a pass-heavy script, that opens the door for Stefanski to potentially turn to Strand and see if the rookie can spark a comeback. I’m not saying that outcome is especially likely, but even if it’s only something like 10%, that’s a huge out against the worst-case game script for this under. Rush also reportedly left practice with back spasms. He seems likely to be fine, but that’s another thing that could flare up and immediately help this bet. This is another Week 1 prop where I don’t think there’s a clean “true” projection because the range of outcomes is so wide, but I’d conservatively put this closer to 17.5 completions with around a 58-60% chance to stay under 18.5.
170
D.Swift u14.5 Rush Att-102
CHI
@
CAR
0.51u
09/13 5:00 PM
Swift only cleared this number in 4 of 15 regular-season games with Kyle Monangai active last year. That makes sense given how their roles fit together. Swift is still the lead back and clear passing-down option, but Monangai carved out a real 10-11 carry role of his own, and that alone puts a pretty natural cap on Swift’s upside in this market. Both were dealing with injuries heading into Week 1, with Monangai missing a ton of time with a knee issue but now fully cleared, while Swift only missed a few practices with what were believed to be cramps. He should be 100%, but if that was even partially conditioning-related, I could see Chicago being a little more cautious with his workload out of the gate. The Bears are also taking a ton of action but remain stuck at -3, and I think Carolina can keep this game closer than people expect and bleed enough clock to limit Chicago’s total play volume.
This also isn’t a bet against Swift’s rushing ability. I’m not interested in fading his yardage because he can absolutely rip off a couple long runs, but those don’t really hurt this under the way you’d think. A 40-yard run is still just one carry, and it may even lead to him checking out for a breather right after. The other sneaky angle is Ben Johnson. Spamming direct carries to one back all game really isn’t his style. The Bears averaged 1.5 designed WR carries per game last season, more than double the league average, and I’d expect that sort of stuff to continue with Luther Burden, Kalif Raymond and even Zavion Thomas all capable of stealing a couple touches. If you’ve ever had an over on a Ben Johnson lead back’s rush attempts, you know exactly how tilting those plays can be. I’m projecting Swift closer to 13.9 attempts with around a 59% chance to stay under 14.5. This is definitely game-script dependent, so if you think Chicago blows Carolina out, I’d stay away. I think Carolina keeps it close enough to lock this in.
151
T.Shough o16.5 Rush Yds-113
NO
@
DET
0.56u
09/13 5:00 PM
The sneaky Week 1 angle here is Taysom Hill being gone. Hill was active for all 10 of Shough’s starts last year and regularly took him off the field for a handful of snaps, many of them designed QB runs. I’m not expecting Shough to simply inherit all of those, but I do think it creates some sneaky upside for a few more designed runs than the market may be accounting for.
Detroit also plays man at a high rate, which can create more scramble opportunities, and they’re good at generating pressure. Shough was sacked on 25% of his pressures last year, second highest among qualified QBs, so I’d imagine Kellen Moore has worked with him on getting out of trouble with his legs more often instead of taking sacks. Add in a game where New Orleans could be trailing and forced into more dropbacks, and I have Shough closer to 18.5 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to clear 16.5.
181
D.Jones o21.5 Pass Comp-118
BAL
@
IND
0.59u
09/13 5:00 PM
Jones is coming off a season-ending Achilles tear, which obviously adds some risk when you’re betting him in Week 1, but I actually think the injury could create some sneaky value in this market. I’d expect him to be less willing to scramble than usual, and Steichen may lean more on quick-hitting throws underneath to get the ball out of his hands before pressure arrives while Jones works his way back. He cleared this in 50% of the games he finished last season, and that was with Indy playing in a bunch of blowouts where he either didn’t have to throw much or barely played in the fourth quarter. This could be one of the rarer spots where a Daniel Jones-led Colts team is actually playing from behind.
The matchup also sets up well enough for volume. Baltimore struggled against the pass last season and will be installing a new scheme under Jesse Minter. Jones already saw that defense in Week 7 against the Chargers and went 23-of-34 for 288 yards and two TDs. If Alec Pierce is less than 100%, he could be used more as a downfield decoy while Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and newly acquired Keenan Allen soak up underneath targets. I’d put this closer to 22.5 completions with around a 60% chance he clears 21.5. There’s definitely a wider range of outcomes coming off the Achilles, but that uncertainty is also part of why I think this is a sneaky Week 1 angle.
203
X.Hutchinson u19.5 Rec Yds-113
BUF
@
HOU
0.56u
09/13 5:00 PM
My goal this week is to have a Prop of the Game for every matchup, and this gets me through the entire early slate. Week 1 is obviously a little different because the edge is naturally lower with so much uncertainty. A lot of people would rather just sit it out and wait for a full week of data, which is completely reasonable. Thats why Week 2 is always one of my favorite weeks. My edge this week is trying to use the last couple months of obsessively tracking camp, preseason, personnel moves, injuries and role changes to get ahead of a few things before we have that clean data. This is one of those spots.
When Jayden Higgins went down, Hutchinson looked like the obvious next man up as his direct backup. Then Houston traded for Kayshon Boutte, which made his role a lot murkier. I also think the Texans could lean into more 2TE looks after adding Foster Moreau and drafting Marlin Klein in the second round, while trying to fix a run game that was a disaster last year with David Montgomery now in the mix. The first thing I’ll be watching is who lines up across from Nico Collins on Houston’s first 2TE snap. If it’s Hutchinson, this under could be in trouble. If it’s Boutte, that would suggest the staff is already comfortable with him as the No. 2 WR, which is where I’m leaning. That could leave Hutchinson splitting 3WR snaps with Jaylin Noel, who I think is a better fit as the No. 3 alongside Nico/Boutte. I could easily see Hutchinson finishing 1/10/0 or 3/30/0, which is why I’d rather play Under 19.5 yards than pay -180 on Under 2.5 receptions. I have him closer to 17 yards with around a 58% chance to stay under. Wider range of outcomes than usual, but that’s kind of the entire Week 1 exercise.
123
Pending
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series:
32 Teams. 32 Bets.
One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team.
First up: Arizona Cardinals
Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”:
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
32 team. 32 bets
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/bears-2026-props-luther-burden-iii
106
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
64
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.50u |
| Last 7 Days | 5-2-0 | 71% | 1.47u |
| Last 30 Days | 9-7-0 | 56% | 0.69u |
| All Time | 2312-1924-39 | 54% | 245.28u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1232-977-20 | 55% | 140.98u |
| MLB | 391-349-7 | 52% | 45.58u |
| NCAAB | 313-254-3 | 55% | 31.47u |
| WNBA | 211-176-5 | 54% | 25.57u |
| NCAAF | 40-30-2 | 56% | 5.10u |
| World Baseball Classic | 2-0-0 | 100% | 1.00u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| World Cup | 1-2-0 | 33% | -0.25u |
| Golf | 9-21-0 | 30% | -0.42u |
| NBA | 108-106-2 | 50% | -3.45u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.