LAS VEGAS – The fight is finally here.
Conor McGregor will climb into the ring tonight at T-Mobile Arena with the chance to give sportsbooks worldwide a record win or a disasterous loss by either doing what is expected (lose) or what he is predicting (win).
Regardless of the outcome, it will be a historic sports gambling event and will set the bar for all fights to come. More money will be placed on this contest than any other boxing match. We will see well more than the $81 million that was wagered on Mayweather vs. Pacquaio.
In fact, Nevada alone is expecting more than $80 million to be bet after taking in $60 million in 2015.
We expected the $1 million dollar bets to show up on Floyd Mayweather Jr. as we got closer to the fight, and they hit like fireworks against a dark sky. Those mega-bets came in over the past 48 hours, but what surprised the books were the five-figure and six-figure bets that came in on the underdog. Those $100,000 and $50,000 bets on McGregor prevented his odds from going over +600 at most books as Saturday began. All the action on the Irishman also kept the number on Mayweather around -600.
The public has loved McGregor from day one of this fight.
Yup, Mayweather over Pacman was our biggest fight profit eva. & Holm over Rousey was our biggest loss. One of these records will break tmrw
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) August 26, 2017
McGregor will enter the fight as much as 20 pounds heavier than his opponent. Mayweather at the weigh-ins said that it won’t matter once fists start flying, but we will watch where the late money goes on Saturday.
Floyd couldn’t even get over 150 pounds, and those that are picking the upset hope that it’s the first sign that "Mystic Mac" is going to be correct. McGregor has been declaring for weeks that Mayweather won’t be able to absorb his punches because of the size difference between the two men. The difference was clear on Friday, as Conor predicted he would be close to 170 for the fight.
By Saturday night, more bets may have been placed on Conor McGregor than were placed on Patriots in the Super Bowl: https://t.co/8rYCAuQ23s
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) August 25, 2017
This fight is expected to shatter pay-per-view records across the globe, and if you needed more incentive to buy this event, the weigh-ins were unlike anything Vegas had ever seen. An arena full of beer drinking fans saw McGregor in rare form.
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) August 25, 2017
In case you wanted a taste of what Mayweather might get hit with tonight inside the arena from the crowd, check out the Irish party that took place just after the weigh-ins. Expect McGregor to feed off the energy that his fans will provide in the early rounds.
— Las Vegas RJ (@reviewjournal) August 25, 2017
What I’m playing tonight:
- Conor McGregor to win via decision (+1500) – 1 unit
- Mayweather to win via decision (+210) – 3 units
- Conor McGregor to KO Floyd in Rds 1-4 (+500) – 1 unit
- Mayweather to get knocked down (+290) – 1 unit
- Fight goes the distance (+190) – 2 units
What I expect to happen
I think McGregor will be the first fighter to put Mayweather on his back inside the ring. I think he will have a shot at ending the fight in the first four rounds, as his size and power will punish Floyd. There will be a moment that could give Conor the win if it goes perfectly.
However, I don’t think it will happen.
I think the veteran of 49 previous pro fights will find a way to stay on his feet long enough for Conor to slow down and allow Floyd to pick him apart. I think Mayweather will own the second half of the fight and win a unanimous decision to go 50-0. I do think the fight goes the distance.
If you want to check out some of the coverage I did from radio row, you can see some video below. Enjoy the fight!