Alex Saucedo vs. Sonny Fredrickson Boxing Odds, Picks & Prediction: Can “El Cholo” Close the Show?

Credit:

Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Saucedo.

Jul 01, 2020, 08:30 PM EDT
  • The updated odds for tonight's Top Rank Boxing main event list Alex Saucedo as a -770 betting favorite against Sonny Fredrickson (+425 underdog).
  • Saucedo will be seeking his win his first fight after a seven-month layoff.
  • Check out analysis on the fight below including a betting pick.

It’s Tuesday night, which means Top Rank Boxing will be front and center in the sports world for another week. Junior welterweight Alex Saucedo (29-1, 19 KO) will face off with Sonny Fredrickson (21-2, 14 KO) in tonight’s main event.

The 10-rounder will be the last of a four-fight card that will take place without fans inside the MGM Grand bubble set up for Top Rank fighters in Las Vegas.

Saucedo vs. Fredrickson Odds

Odds as of Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Prop Saucedo Fredrickson
Win by KO/TKO -139 +1000
Win by Decision +165 +1200
Win in Rounds 1-2 +750 +6600
Win in Rounds 3-4 +550 +5000
Win in Rounds 5-6 +500 +5000
Win in Rounds 7-8 +550 +5000
Win in Rounds 9-10 +750 +6000
Total Rounds (8.5) Over +100 Under -134

Saucedo comes into this fight as a heavy favorite. As of this writing, “El Cholo” is a -770 moneyline favorite with his opponent’s odds set around +425 to get the win. The odds suggest this fight will not go over the 8.5 round mark as both the under (-134) and the distance props (-167) are moving in toward a stoppage.

Saucedo vs. Fredrickson Betting Pick

Top Rank main events have started to develop a trend of producing profitable underdogs with Joshua Greer Jr. and Jason Moloney taking losses as heavy favorites in recent weeks.

This fight sets up similarly: a relative unknown vs. a fighter on the rise with pedigree who is looking to get back into the conversation for a belt. Saucedo is the latter in that scenario, he lost in his first junior lightweight title shot against former WBO champ Maurice Hooker in 2018. Saucedo managed to score a knockdown in Round 2 of the fight, but ended up losing to the surging Hooker by TKO in the seventh.

The better version of Saucedo was seen in his win TKO win over Leonardo Zappavigna who was left bloodied with one eye closed. Saucedo’s power is very real and could be the deciding factor against any opponent.

As for the relative unknown, Fredrickson, this could be a step too far for the 25-year-old right now. He’s coming off a close loss in November and hasn’t yet fought someone at Saucedo’s level in his career. Against his toughest opponent, Shohjahon Ergashev, Fredrickson was dispatched by TKO in three rounds. He wasn’t able to withstand the pressure being put on him early, which led to a referee stoppage.

As for this fight, Saucedo should be able to take care of business. He has managed to finish opponents before Round 8 in four of his past five fights and scored that early knockdown against Hooker despite losing in the end. I think his power will prove to be too much for Fredrickson, too.

Pick: Saucedo by KO, TKO, DQ (-139)
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