Jose Pedraza vs. Mikkel LesPierre Boxing Odds, Picks & Prediction: Will We See Another Top Rank Main Event Upset?
Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Pedraza.
- Former two-division champion Jose Pedraza will headline Top Rank's Thursday night boxing card against Mikkel LesPierre on ESPN.
- Pedraza is a heavy favorite (-1115 odds) against the LesPierre with the over/under set at 8.5 rounds.
- Is Pedraza's worth backing at such a high price? Check out the odds and betting analysis below.
Tonight’s Top Rank main event will feature former junior lightweight and lightweight champion Jose Pedraza (26-3, 13 KO) against Mikkel LesPierre (22-1-1, 10 KO) in a fight that was rescheduled in mid-June due to a positive COVID-19 test in LePierre’s corner.
The 10-round bout will be the last of a five-fight card that will take place without fans inside the MGM Grand bubble set up for Top Rank fighters in Las Vegas.
Pedraza vs. LesPierre Odds
|Win by KO/TKO||+275||+1400|
|Win by Decision||-265||+1200|
|Win in Rounds 1-2||+2000||+6600|
|Win in Rounds 3-4||+1100||+6600|
|Win in Rounds 5-6||+1000||+5000|
|Win in Rounds 7-8||+1000||+5000|
|Win in Rounds 9-10||+1200||+6600|
|Total Rounds (8.5)||Over -455||Under +300|
Pedraza is a massive favorite in this fight at -1115 on the moneyline. LesPierre is +600 at the time of writing to get the win. Pedraza’s odds to win convert to an implied probability of 83% compared to 12% for LesPierre. The odds also suggest this fight has a less than 25% chance to end before the 8.5 round marker.
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Pedraza vs. LesPierre Betting Pick
This fight pits a former champion against a former title challenger and yet the odds make this seem like there’s very little chance that LesPierre can compete in this bout.
Pedraza certainly has the resume of a fighter worth betting, but there are some flags that pop up when looking at this matchup. First, he hasn’t actually proven that he can be effective moving up to this weight (144-pound catchweight for this matchup) as he lost his first fight at the 140-pound limit in September to Jose Zepeda.
The other flag is that LesPierre is a southpaw. All three of Pedraza’s losses came against lefties (Gervonta Davis, Vasiliy Lomachencko and Zepeda). While two of those fighters were just better, it will be interesting to see if LesPierre takes advantage of any openings.
LesPierre isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut in the ring, but his experience in a title fight loss to Maurice Hooker should make him a tough opponent. He wasn’t able to get by Hooker’s 80-inch reach in that loss, but he measures out almost exactly with Pedraza in terms of height and reach (5-foot-8 with a 70-inch reach). He also has the advantage of fighting at or above the 144-pound catchweight for most of his career.
Pedraza should get the win here, but the question marks are considerable. We can probably rule out a win by stoppage for either side since both fighters sport a KO rate just north of 40% for their careers.
Pedraza to win by decision (-265) seems like the most realistic outcome, but the price is a too high to back. It’s also tempting to back LesPierre at 6-1, but there isn’t enough evidence to believe that he will provide the necessary offense to keep Pedraza off balance. That said, this fight will likely be a no bet for me.