Boxing Odds, Pick & Prediction: Parlay for Carlos Adames vs. Julian Williams, Edgar Berlanga vs. Jason Quigley (Saturday, June 24)
Mikey Williams/Top Rank Inc via Getty Images. Pictured: Boxer Edgar Berlanga
- It's fight night, and Saturday's boxing lineup features two big fights.
- Showtime airs Carlos Adames vs. Julian Williams, and DAZN has Edgar Berlanga vs. Jason Quigley.
- Below, combat-sports expert Bryan Fonseca breaks down the fights and shares his parlay bet.
I will remind you that truly anything could happen in this sport of boxing, predictable as it may seem at times.
Regis Prograis just escaped with a split-decision victory over an admirable challenger in Danielito Zorrilla last weekend while Somali super prospect Ramla Ali – one of 12 selections for the 2023 TIME Magazine Women of the Year – was knocked out in a major upset. (She closed as a -2400 favorite at FanDuel.)
So yeah, anything can happen, but while I acknowledge that on the front end, I feel good about the two favorites handling their business as part of boxing this weekend with Saturday's doubleheader.
On Showtime, Carlos Adames (22-1, 17 KOs) defends his interim WBC middleweight title against former unified super welterweight champion Julian Williams (28-3-1, 16 KOs).
On DAZN, Edgar Berlanga (20-0, 16 KOs) returns after a year away to make his Matchroom Boxing debut against former world title challenger Jason Quigley (20-2, 14 KOs).
Adames and Berlanga should get it done, even though both are far from perfect. Let's discuss how.
Carlos Adames vs. Julian Williams Odds and Analysis
Adames, 29, is 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach, knocked out overwhelmed challenger Juan Macias Montiel for the WBC interim title in his last fight in October, and is riding a four-fight winning streak (including three knockouts) since losing a decision to Patrick Teixeira in November of 2019.
The loss was also at super welterweight, where Williams once reigned.
At 33 and with three losses, this could be Williams' last chance at a title. He has slight physical disadvantages in the Adames fight at 5-foot-10 with a 72.5-inch reach, and he is less of a puncher in this bout.
Don't blink, these guys aren't 👀
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) June 23, 2023
Williams most recently decisioned an 18-win, 11-loss journeyman in November. I could mention him by name, but would it really matter to you?
He also dropped a split decision against 12-4 Vladimir Hernandez in October 2021, and Jeison Rosario stopped him in the fifth round in January 2020, when Williams lost the WBA, IBF and IBO world titles he had beaten Jarrett Hurd to claim eight months prior.
Williams' first loss was to Jermall Charlo in December 2016, also a fifth-round knockout.
Edgar Berlanga vs. Jason Quigley Odds and Analysis
Berlanga, at 6-foot-1 and with a 73-inch reach, was pegged to be the next Puerto Rican boxing superstar while at Top Rank and ESPN until his star began dwindling on the way out the door.
He had 16 straight first-round knockouts to begin his pro career, followed by four consecutive collectively "meh" decision victories, including one in which he was dropped against seldom-known challenger Marcelo Esteban Coceres in October 2021.
He followed that by squeezing out a somewhat close decision win in March 2022 over Steve Rolls, who had been knocked out by Gennady Golovkin in the fourth round nearly three years prior.
Winning by decision and getting rounds are perfectly fine, even after such a knockout streak, but watch the fights and you won't see tons of improvement. Still, he's 26, for what that's worth.
Quigley, on the other hand, is the carefully chosen challenger to test Berlanga in his debut on DAZN. At 6-foot-1 with a 71.5-inch reach, he has a slight disadvantage physically to the longer and stronger Berlanga.
— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) June 23, 2023
The 32-year-old Quigley, however, has fought for a middleweight title before, losing to Demetrius Andrade via second-round TKO in a gross mismatch in November 2021.
Quigley's other loss was also a stoppage, to Tureano Johnson in the ninth round more than two years prior.
His best victory is probably over Shane Mosley Jr. from two years ago, a narrow majority decision win for the WBO NABO regional level title Berlanga holds today.
Adames vs Williams & Berlanga vs Quigley Parlay
We'll make it a two-pick boxing parlay for Saturday.
I'm most confident in Adames among these four guys fighting this weekend, but I'm not sure when he stops Williams; I just firmly believe he will.
Adames to win in Rounds 5-8 is interesting at +190, as is Rounds 7-12 at +210. But while Williams has been stopped in Round 5 twice, Adames has two third-round stoppages in his last three fights and only one from Rounds 5-8 in his last 10.
We'll take Adames straight up by KO/TKO as a parlay leg at -195 on FanDuel. We'll pair it with Berlanga to finish Quigley early between rounds 1-6 at -180.
This puts our parlay at +135 odds.
If this goes beyond Round 6, do your best to take Berlanga by decision live. That's +420 going into the fight and probably sprinkle-worthy if he underwhelms a fifth straight time.
If Berlanga doesn't KO Quigley, his star turn might be done with. This is the result that almost has to happen. We'll see, though.
Enjoy the fights and don't go broke!
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