Saturday Boxing Odds, Picks & Predictions for Terence Crawford vs. Kell Brook (Nov. 14)
Mikey Williams/Top Rank Inc via Getty Images. Pictured: Terence Crawford, left, and Kell Brook.
- Terence Crawford brings his seven-fight knockout streak into Saturday's bout with Kell Brook.
- Oddsmakers like his chances of making it eight consecutive KOs, but is there value in betting on a knockout?
- Malik Smith breaks down the fight and gives us his top pick below.
Crawford vs. Brook Odds
|Crawford Odds||-834 [BET NOW]|
|Brook Odds||+550 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+2800 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||9 Rounds (-150/+110) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Approx. 10:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN|
Terence “Bud” Crawford will defend his WBO welterweight belt and third-overall pound-for-pound ranking against former welterweight titlist Kell “Special K” Brook on Saturday at the MGM Grand Bubble in Las Vegas on ESPN (10 p.m. ET).
Crawford (36-0, 27 KO) hasn’t been in the ring since defeating Egidijus Kavaliauskas nearly a year ago, while Brook (39-2, 27 KO) last saw action in February.
Crawford has been angling for bigger fights from Top Rank President Bob Arum since winning his welterweight belt, and Brook will arguably be the toughest fighter he has faced in the 147-pound weight class.
Can Brook realistically test Bud in this fight? Let’s break down the matchup:
Crawford: A Patient Predator
Crawford’s lofty place in the boxing world is unquestionable and the metrics back it up. However, as a welterweight, Bud’s resume feels a bit incomplete. Crawford’s talent is undeniable, but he hasn’t been given much opportunity to prove how good he is against the division’s best due to boxing’s bureaucracy.
Brook appears to be the high-level type of opponent that Crawford has been hoping to face, even if some of Bud’s fans have dismissed the title-less welterweight.
Special K proved his toughness when he moved up two weight classes to face then-undefeated Gennadiy Golovkin at middleweight in 2016 — a fight that gave him his first professional loss by knockout and a broken eye socket.
Brook followed that fight up by losing his IBF welterweight belt to Errol Spence Jr. in 2017, which also came by knockout. Brook has since bounced back, winning three consecutive fights at super welterweight, albeit against lesser competition.
Still, Brook believes his size will be the difference in this fight and that he can bully Crawford around the ring. That will be a tough task against Crawford, who is among the most skilled fighters alive.
According to CompuBox data, Crawford ranks fifth in their Plus/Minus rating (+13.9), which is the difference between a fighter’s connect percentage and their opponent’s connect percentage. That number is buoyed by his 47.6% connect rate, which is the second-highest among all CompuBox tracked fighters.
Crawford does a great job of using his 74-inch reach and stiff jab early on in fights to find the range against his opponents. His ability to switch stances mid-fight is another asset in Bud’s toolbox that forces opponents to make adjustments.
One of the most impressive aspects of Crawford’s game is his ability to slowly build his output throughout a fight. Looking at his four fights as a welterweight, Crawford’s average punches landed jumped from 11.5 in Rounds 1-3 to 15.5 in Rounds 4-6, then increased again to 19.5 in Rounds 7-9.
He also has devastating finishing power. Bud’s past seven opponents have all lost by stoppage and oddsmakers think that streak could continue with Crawford’s odds to win by KO/TKO listed at -250.
Crawford vs. Brook Betting Pick
As usual, the moneyline odds on the favorite are way too high to consider. While I do think Brook has a better chance to win than his 12.5% implied odds suggest, I don’t think 7-1 is enough to fire on Special K.
Crawford will be motivated by the prospect of potentially facing Spence or Manny Pacquiao if he manages to get the win, but I don’t expect him to overlook Brook here. I expect that Bud will be hitting his stride just as Brook is starting wear down.
Once Crawford smells blood, the finish usually isn’t too far behind. I like this fight to end between Rounds 7 and 12.
The Bet: Fight Ends in Rounds 7-12 (+132)