David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant Odds, Pick & Prediction: Grab This Prop Bet at Plus Money (Saturday, March 25)
Kelsey Grant/Getty Images. Pictured: Boxer David Benavidez
- David Benavidez and Caleb Plant clash in Saturday's Showtime PPV boxing headliner.
- Benavidez is a big favorite as the super middleweights fight for the interim WBC crown.
- Below, Bryan Fonseca shares his best bet for that fight, as well as two matchups from the night's ESPN card.
David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant Odds
OK, let’s talk this one out.
David Benavidez (26-0, 23 KOs) vs. Caleb Plant (22-1, 13 KOs) is one of the more captivating fights we’ll see in the first half of 2023.
Saturday’s main event, on paper, is very close to a 50-50 fight, though the books don’t feel exactly the same way. It isn’t some of the other fights we’ve covered in terms of betting value – and even with those, we found winners at plus odds!
Benavidez and Plant, the two super middleweights, are battling over the interim WBC crown on this weekend’s pay-per-view card from MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (9 p.m. ET main card with an 11 p.m. ET main event).
Benavidez was actually the WBC champion, winning the title in 2017 against Ronald Gavril, but was later stripped after one successful title defense following a positive cocaine test.
He won the title back against Anthony Dirrell – the most prominent mutual opponent between Benavidez and Plant – via ninth-round knockout in 2019, but he subsequently lost the title on the scale before officially defending it. So, yes, he’s had the WBC belt twice, and lost it both times, neither in the ring.
Plant won the IBF super middleweight crown in early 2019, successfully defending the title three times before losing an undisputed title bout to Canelo Alvarez in late 2011, then returning late years year to knock out the aforementioned Dirrell in the ninth round.
It really is a great card; I wouldn’t call it PPV-worthy for the casual fan in terms of name recognition, but from the standpoint of purely in-ring prowess, it should deliver as such.
Our record so far is 6-3 on exact boxing bets, and we’re 1-0 this month after hitting our Brandon Figuera vs. Mark Magsayo bet three weeks ago.
Now, let’s size up Benavidez vs. Plant.
I’ve been legitimately going back and forth on this fight for a collection of reasons.
In anticipation of all the fight coverage I’m doing this week, I’ve rewatched several fights involving both Benavidez and Plant, and here are the observations you’d probably most care about if you’ve read long enough.
Benavidez has been his own worst enemy, but when he’s on, he’s as dangerous a challenge possible at super middleweight. He’ll have a very slight height and reach advantage – 6-foot-2 to 6-foot-1 and 74.5 inches to 74 inches, respectively – but will pressure Plant for the duration of the contest.
TOMORROW NIGHT CAN’T COME SOON ENOUGH 🔥🔥🔥🔥@Benavidez300 🆚 @SweetHandsPlant on SHO PPV: https://t.co/BYO7umAuMy#BenavidezPlantpic.twitter.com/M1NgL1nyKx
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) March 24, 2023
Benavidez is most effective in pursuit, pushing forward, and making his opponent actually fight. At his best, he has lightning-fast hands and unleashes strikingly accurate combinations that could rearrange the geometry of a fight.
Plant is more of an all-around boxer who leans on his jab and counter-punching abilities to dictate the action, gradually mixing in combinations, including a healthy amount of hooks to the body. He’ll likely be utilizing these abilities to keep Benavidez’s pressure nurtured, but that’s easier said than done. He is the sharper defender of the two, but defending against Benavidez can feel like trying to keep a clicker off once you’re in their sights.
Plant will exchange, and he has power, but brawling wouldn’t get him anywhere against Benavidez, who’ll more than likely be the bigger man on fight night, and that’s before we get to the physical advantages just discussed.
Benavidez vs. Plant Pick
I’ve changed my mind a few times on this, and typically, my first reaction is my best one because when I have more time to think, I’m prone to losing the bet.
Plant got off to a good start against Canelo, even winning a few rounds early before Canelo – generally a slow starter – broke him down over the course of the fight and stopped him in Round 11.
At 168 pounds, Benavidez has more power, and if he’s focused, could execute a similar blueprint that Alvarez did, perhaps a more effective one using his natural size and strength.
We’re rolling with Benavidez by KO/TKO, and we’re doing it with group-round betting. I wanted to bet between rounds 9-12, but that’s not available yet. In the event it doesn’t, we’ll roll with Benavidez by stoppage in rounds 7-12, which is +145 on FanDuel and will be similar elsewhere. Rounds 7-9 and 10-12 are interesting, but 9-12 is my preferred range for this fight. (Editor’s note: FanDuel now has Benavidez in Rounds 9-12 available at +270.)
Plant by decision is very plausible and will arrive in that +450 range; I’m just not convinced he’ll have enough of a work rate to keep Benavidez’s outstanding pressure subdued. Additionally, Benavidez by KO straight up is -125 to -140-ish right now, which also has good value, as does Plant on the moneyline and around +250, as of this writing. But I’m sticking with my prop and will likely sprinkle on some others.
Pick: David Benavidez To Win in Rounds 7-12 (+145)
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Bonus Betting Analysis
Former unified super lightweight champion Jose Ramirez (27-1, 17 KOs) returns on Saturday from a one-year layoff to face former lightweight champion Richard Commey (30-4-1, 27 KOs) on ESPN (10 p.m. ET). This is also a very good fight, but it’s much easier to bet, so I’m spending less time on it.
The question is primarily this: Does Ramirez win by stoppage or via decision?
Commey recently moved up from lightweight to super lightweight, and he was knocked out once at 135 pounds by Teofimo Lopez on Heisman Night 2019 – a knockout-of-the-year contender and star-making performance.
Ramirez is -900 on the moneyline at DraftKings, so forget that. But Ramirez is -185 by decision and +200 by KO. We’ll play it safe and take the decision given the long layoff. I’ll acknowledge that Commey might be a bit more live than it may seem, but +500 on the moneyline is fair.
A high stakes Junior Welterweight scrap 🔥#RamirezCommey | TOMORROW 10PM ET | @ESPNpic.twitter.com/bX0fEOeJn3
— Top Rank Boxing (@trboxing) March 24, 2023
If there’s an upset, Commey would have to KO Ramirez, who is the better all-around boxer, and that’s a +1100 bet. Ramirez has been down three times in his career – twice in an undisputed championship fight with Josh Taylor two years ago – so a sprinkle/hedge wouldn’t be setting your money on fire at that number.
Last thing: Fan-favorite Seniesa Estrada (23-0, 9 KOs) and Tina Rupperecht (12-0-1, 3 KOs) will unify their WBO and WBC minimumweight titles in the ESPN co-feature leading up to Ramirez vs. Commey.
She's called "Super Bad" for a reason 😤👊 @SeniesaEstrada
(🎥 @GoldenBoyBoxing)#RamirezCommey | TOMORROW | 10 PM ET | ESPN pic.twitter.com/4Em2IbUTbB
— ESPN Ringside (@ESPNRingside) March 24, 2023
Estrada is a massive favorite (-1500) and will likely win on points at a more digestible number worth throwing in a parlay as those method-of-victory props become widely available.
Enjoy the fights and don’t go broke!
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