Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois Odds, Pick & Prediction: Get -1450 Favorite at Plus-Money Odds (Saturday, August 26)

Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois Odds, Pick & Prediction: Get -1450 Favorite at Plus-Money Odds (Saturday, August 26) article feature image

Andrzej Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Boxers Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois

Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois Odds

Usyk Odds
Dubois Odds
6.5 rounds (-192 / +150)
Tarczynski Arena in Wroclaw, Poland
2 p.m. ET (main event at approx. 5 p.m. ET)
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel

One thing I'm not is a liar.

This isn't a "Fight Party" bout unless you're Ukrainian or British – and, potentially, a believer in the heavy underdog.

Oleksandr Usyk (20-0, 13 KOs), two-time defeater of Anthony Joshua, is the reigning IBF, WBO, WBA (super) world heavyweight champion, formerly undisputed at cruiserweight, and is the consensus pound-for-pound No. 3 boxer in the world behind Terence Crawford and Naoya Inoue.

On Saturday afternoon (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+), he fights Daniel Dubois (19-1, 18 KOs), a hard-hitting British big man who is the current WBA (regular) heavyweight champ.

Yes, more improbable things have happened in this sport, including just this year. However, if I'm pointing that out in sentence six of a boxing preview, you probably have an idea where this is headed.

And just because the bout we're about to discuss is one-sided – and I'll keep it tighter than usual out of respect for your time, dear reader – doesn't mean we shouldn't bet on it.

No, that's rarely the case.

We can absolutely cash out on the forthcoming unified heavyweight championship showdown.

But first, let's size up the two fighters and find some value with Usyk vs. Dubois.

Usyk vs. Dubois Fight Analysis

Usyk is expected to beat Dubois, which may be hard to digest if you've seen only photos of the two.

But that's the Usyk experience.

Usyk, at 6-foot-3, is two inches shorter, has a 78-inch reach (same as Dubois) and is extremely effective when fighting on the outside. He's naturally smaller and is expected to weigh around 20 pounds lighter than his British-born counterpart. He turned pro at 26 years old in 2013 – which is older than the 25-year-old Dubois is now.

But if you've seen him box, you have an idea of what to expect.

Usyk is like a big ass Vasiliy Lomachenko, a level-changing southpaw who will constantly shift the balance of the fight with his footwork, his motor and his IQ. He isn't a supremely powerful puncher, but he does have finishing ability. And he's widely considered the biggest threat to WBC and consensus No. 1 heavyweight in the world, Tyson Fury.

(Note for anyone confused: Usyk ranks higher in the pound-for-pound rankings because of what he's accomplished across two weight classes – heavyweight and cruiserweight – while Fury is considered the top heavyweight by many because of what he's done in this specific weight class, and rightfully so.)

Usyk's signature wins are two decisions over Joshua from August 2022 and September 2021, an eighth-round TKO over Tony Bellew in his last cruiserweight bout in 2018 while down on all three cards, and he was the first winner of the cruiserweight World Boxing Super Series, which ran from 2017-2018.

The night @Usykaa struck Heavyweight gold 🏆🏆🏆#UsykDubois | AUG 26 | @ESPNPluspic.twitter.com/T5gRXXMS4B

— Top Rank Boxing (@trboxing) August 22, 2023

If there's one thing about Dubois, it's that he can crack. He's finished every man he's fought outside of Kevin Johnson and Joe Joyce.

Joyce handed him his lone defeat, a 10th-round knockout for several regional titles in November 2010, including the British, Commonwealth and European heavyweight belts. And typically, the winner of those titles is considered an automatic contender in the U.K.

Dubois was leading two scorecards at the time of the stoppage and won the WBA interim heavyweight title in the following June.

In his most recent bout, Dubois was nearly a victim of the British heavyweight jinx, stopping Kevin Lerena in Round 3 of a December title defense despite being dropped three times.

He looked all but finished in Round 1 before rallying.

Usyk vs. Dubois Pick

This would be the upset of the year if Dubois pulled off the upset over Usyk, in my opinion.

More surprising than even Ramla Ali's (a -2200 favorite!) knockout loss to Julissa Guzman, or Gary Cully's stunning TKO loss to Jose Felix Jr., or Liam Smith stopping Chris Eubank Jr. Maybe all of them put together. It's really a testament to how awesome Usyk is and has been.

The question is, how will Usyk get it done, rather than will he?

ONLY ONE THING LEFT TO DO 🏆#UsykDubois | SAT 5PM ET | @ESPNPluspic.twitter.com/ZaLpX6hcM9

— Top Rank Boxing (@trboxing) August 25, 2023

I think Usyk stops Dubois, but I don't think it's early. I'll go with my favorite late stoppage bet – alternate group round betting on FanDuel – and take Usyk by KO/TKO between Rounds 7-12 at +190.

I also like, on DraftKings, Usyk to win by TKO (-115) on the exact fight outcome.

Dubois could be liable to get dropped early again, sure, but Usyk is a dissector who punishes you round by round, not the Deontay Wilder level of fast starter. I'd be mildly surprised if this goes to the cards, but I'd say that's more likely than an uber-early finish, save for Dubois just getting Lerena'd all over again.

Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.

Pick: Oleksandr Usyk in Rounds 7-12 (+190)

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