Shakur Stevenson vs. Robson Conceicao Boxing Odds, Pick & Prediction: Weigh-in Flub a Cause for Concern? (Friday, Sept. 23)

Stevenson vs. Conceicao Odds

Just when speculation was heating up as to how long unified 130-pound champ Shakur Stevenson might remain in the division before moving up a weight class, Stevenson himself went ahead and answered that question by missing weight for Friday’s title defense against Robson Conceicao, thereby removing all doubt.

Stevenson lost his belts to the scale before he could even risk losing them to Conceicao, leaving us with a weird fight from Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The result is that Conceicao can still win the WBO and WBC super featherweight titles, but Stevenson, who at 25 was starting to look like one of the best all-around boxers in the world, cannot.

That makes one wonder about where Stevenson’s body and brain are headed into a fight that seemed like it should be his to lose, and against a hungry +780 underdog with a lot to prove.

Stevenson vs. Conceicao Fight Analysis

The -1300 line on Stevenson to win, even after coming in at 131.6 pounds for the 130-pound fight (and declining to even attempt to continue the weight cut), tells you almost everything you need to know about how competitive this fight is expected to be.

It’s not that Conceicao is by any means bad. He was an Olympic gold medalist at the 2016 Games, and his lone defeat – to Oscar Valdez via decision – was one many people thought he deserved to win.

It’s just that Stevenson is so good everywhere, and so smart, and generally doesn’t make many mistakes. Sometimes that can make his fights a little boring to watch. He can outclass opponents without taking too many chances, and many times he’s content to do just that, as he did when it was his turn to face Valdez, whom he cruised to an easy decision victory against in April.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Conceicao poses no threat. It just means he’ll probably need a little help from Stevenson to even get the chance he needs to land that big punch – or he’ll need an opponent who’s too distracted thinking about what comes next in another weight class to take him seriously enough.

Stevenson vs. Conceicao Pick

It’s never a great sign to miss weight, but this still ought to be Stevenson’s fight. The question is whether or not he’ll be motivated to make a statement in response to that weigh-in flub and make it a point to go out there and finish Conceicao.

Personally, I doubt it. Stevenson has pride, like all fighters, but he’s not dumb. That’s why the best odds you’re likely to get here is the -200 line on Stevenson via decision, offered by DraftKings.

If that is somehow too daring for you, the chalky -250 line from Caesars on the fight going over 10.5 rounds is also a solid pick. But there’s every reason to think Stevenson salts away a victory on the scorecards against a tough and resilient opponent in Conceicao, then heads for a new life at 135 pounds.

The Pick: Shakur Stevenson by Decision or Technical Decision (-200 at DraftKings)