Five contracts are moving right now, and each one has a real story behind the price. Primetime's Rotten Tomatoes score is drifting as reviews pile in, an NFC West measuring-stick game just got a lot more lopsided, the midterm forecast jumped after a rough new poll for the White House, a Netflix drama is closing the gap on an Oscar frontrunner, and Ethereum just whipsawed through one of its wildest weeks of the year. For a full breakdown of how the platform works, check out this Kalshi review, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis on every market below.
Prediction Markets Contracts on Kalshi
Prediction markets aren't polls or forecasts sitting still on a page. They're live, tradable prices that shift every time someone puts money behind an opinion. A contract's current price reflects what the crowd collectively thinks is likely to happen, updated in real time as news breaks. That's what makes these five worth watching: the prices already moved this week, and the stories behind those moves are still developing.
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Seattle is 2-0 after routing Arizona 31-7 behind backup quarterback Drew Lock, who threw three touchdowns to Jaxon Smith-Njigba while starter Sam Darnold recovers from a glute injury. Coach Mike Macdonald didn't hide his confidence in Lock afterward: "Really proud of Drew, really happy for him. We're on record about how we feel about him and he backed that up today."
Washington is in a very different spot. The Commanders fell to 0-2 after a 37-20 loss to Dallas, and quarterback Jayden Daniels re-injured the same elbow that limited him last season. Marcus Mariota is expected to start in his place. A surging Seattle offense against a Washington team playing its backup explains why this line shifted so sharply, and it's worth checking the spread and total points markets on this one too, not just the moneyline.
Oscar for Best Picture
The Odyssey is still the outcome to beat, but Netflix's La Bola Negra just closed the gap. The Javier Calvo/Javier Ambrossi drama drew one of the longest standing ovations in Toronto Film Festival history and was picked as Spain's official Oscar entry for Best International Feature.
Here's the catch: no Netflix film has ever won Best Picture. That history is exactly why this market is worth tracking as nominations approach, a real test of whether a genuine contender can finally break the streak.
Midterms: Balance of Power
This market tracks four outcomes for the House and Senate together, and Democrats Sweep jumped this week after a new NBC News poll put President Donald Trump's approval at the lowest mark of his second term. The survey landed alongside rising gas prices and the Fed's first rate hike in three years, all just over six weeks before Election Day. With that much time left and inflation still the top issue for voters, this market has plenty of room to keep moving.
Primetime's Rotten Tomatoes Score
A24's Primetime stars Robert Pattinson as Chris Hansen, the To Catch a Predator host, in a thriller about the show's meteoric rise. The film drew a rare, extended standing ovation at its Venice premiere, and critics called it some of the best work of Pattinson's career.
The score has held in a strong range since Venice, but it's been drifting slightly as more reviews land. That's the story to watch: "Primetime" opens wide on September 25, meaning mainstream critics, not just festival audiences, are about to weigh in en masse. A score built almost entirely on early buzz is about to face a much bigger sample size.
Our take:
We'd expect Primetime to settle somewhere between 87 and 90% once the market closes, comfortably Certified Fresh but not quite matching its Venice highs.
How High Will ETH Get in September?
This contract resolves on the highest price Ethereum touches all month, not where it closes, which makes it especially sensitive to a week like this one. ETH dropped hard on September 16 amid the CLARITY Act's failure in the Senate and ahead of the Fed's rate hike, then rallied back toward eight-month highs by Monday on falling oil prices, a strong weekly close for Bitcoin, and a wave of short sellers getting squeezed out. Few contracts move this fast in either direction: exactly the kind of setup active traders look for.
