The NBA Cup continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Friday, November 6.
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NBA Best Bets for Friday, November 6
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Trail Blazers vs Lakers Player Prop Prediction
Luka Doncic Over 34.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
I know this line looks ridiculous on the surface—it feels like one of those old James Harden props when he was on another planet—but Luka Doncic has been so absurd this season that it is entirely justified.
Doncic has hit this over in six straight games, including a 41-point masterclass against this exact same Trail Blazers team.
The sheer volume of three-pointers he is launching right now is outrageous. Over his last several games, he has taken 13, 15, 12, 16, 15, and 18 threes, and he has made at least five in seven of eight games this season.
Portland is a militant drop-coverage team that keeps Donovan Clingan at the rim, which allows their wings to stay home but exposes them to three-point attempts off the pick-and-roll.
We have seen ball-dominant guards like Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves, and Darius Acuff get exactly what they want pulling up against this Portland defense.
The Lakers offense isn't functioning at an elite level without Luka carrying the load, and because this is an NBA Cup game, you can expect him to take a step forward in intensity.
Give me Luka to score over 34.5 points tonight.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 34.5 Points (-120)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Blazers vs Lakers betting preview!
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Spurs vs Kings Spread Pick
Spurs -15.5
By Matt Moore
Spotting 15.5 points in an NBA game is usually terrifying, but you have to trust the math sometimes.
Since the beginning of last season, when the Spurs are favored by 15 or more points, they are a flawless 11-0 straight up. They do not lose these games, and they consistently blow teams off the floor.
My model actually projects this line all the way out to 18.5, giving me a solid three points of numerical value. I think the sportsbooks are still lagging behind on San Antonio's power rating because they threw us off the scent with a couple of weird games early on.
Since then, the Spurs have been an absolute destroyer of worlds. De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are playing great, and Victor Wembanyama is a terrifying human being; his performance last night was an absolute horror film for the opposition.
The Kings, meanwhile, are completely horrendous. They do not have the top-end talent or the structural ability to hang around in the pick-and-roll against a juggernaut like the Spurs. I'll lay the big number with San Antonio.
Pick: Spurs -15.5 (-110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Spurs vs Kings betting preview!
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76ers vs Cavaliers Moneyline Pick & Player Prop Bet
76ers Moneyline
By Matt Moore
The spread implies this moneyline should be -166, and we’re getting -142. That’s it. That’s the handicap. Okay, that and the Sixers simply will not lose.
The Cavaliers are a good team but don’t seem to have any oomph this season. They’ve already given up a catastrophic collapse to this team earlier this season.
The Sixers are learning more and more about who they are and what they want to do.
I actually put the spread inside the number at +1.5. But at under a possession, I don’t want to buy into the idea that the Cavs are going to get right after that collapse earlier this season.
Joel Embiid should continue to dominate, especially with the Cavs having both Peyton Watson and Jarrett Allen questionable for this game.
I’ll just take the Sixers to keep rolling along on a cheaper moneyline than the market spread conversion, and take the team that brings more firepower to the front.
Pick: 76ers Moneyline (-142)
James Harden Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds
By Jim Turvey
Currently, both Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson are listed as questionable for the Cavaliers. I am treating these designations with serious caution, giving Allen roughly a 40 percent chance to play and Watson maybe 20 percent.
This is the front end of a back-to-back for Cleveland before they play the Knicks on Saturday, so they will probably stagger the rest or sit both guys tonight.
If those two are out, this prop immediately turns into a smash spot for James Harden.
When Allen and Watson are off the court, Harden’s usage rate and rebound rate both skyrocket. The idea here is that without Allen serving as a rim-running threat, Harden shifts away from his pass-first, facilitating role and leans much more into his pure scoring instincts; utilizing his step-back jumper and individual shot creation.
The 76ers are averaging the fewest corner three-point attempts allowed in the league right now, meaning Harden—who only takes 0.9 of those specific looks per game anyway—has to generate offense directly on the ball via the pick-and-roll.
While the Sixers technically boast the second-best defense in the NBA right now, it feels incredibly fake. Their numbers are inflated from getting to beat up on a shell-shocked Bulls team multiple times.
Plus, this is a revenge spot for Harden against one of his former teams. I'll back him to record over 22.5 points & rebounds tonight.
Pick: James Harden Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full 76ers vs Cavaliers betting preview!
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Celtics vs Hornets Three-Point Prop
Brandon Miller Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made
By Matt Moore
Brandon Miller averages the most corner three-point attempts on the Hornets, making one per game.
Boston gives up the second-most corner three attempts per game in the league and will likely be fine with Miller trying to beat them off ball.
Miller has to space the floor because Kon Kneuppel is out (again), and with Coby White back, he’ll have better opportunities against a defense that allows a high volume of three-pointers (oddly, and oddly successfully).
Pick: Brandon Miller Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Celtics vs Hornets betting preview!
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Wizards vs Hawks Total Prediction
Under 228.5
By Matt Moore
The Wizards are fraudulent. Schedule-adjusted, they have a bottom-10 offense and defense despite sitting at 4-4.
I am tempted to just play Hawks moneyline, but unfortunately, my model still shows value on the Wizards against the 6.5-spread.
However, the under has hit in seven straight Wizards games, and their defense is actually closer to functional than their offense.
The Wizards hardly take any threes, which helps contain their offensive ceiling, and they are actually holding opponents to the second-lowest eFG% in the league.
The Hawks scored 120 points on Washington in DC on Wednesday, and the under still cruised.
I make this total 222.9 with nearly seven points of value on the under.
Washington’s defense has only allowed its opponent to go over their team total in one game this season, which was Wednesday against the Hawks.
I don’t think that will repeat with this line a point higher than the last game.
The Wizards’ offense is inept, their defense a little less so, and that’s why I think this total stays below the number.
Pick: Under 228.5 (-110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Wizards vs Hawks betting preview!
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Thunder vs Grizzlies Player Prop Picks
Jaylen Wells Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
By Matt Moore
I love targeting three-point props against teams that surrender a high volume of outside shots, and the Thunder currently allow the highest number of corner threes per game in the entire league.
Tonight, the Thunder's perimeter rotations are going to be significantly degraded because they are missing Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams, who are two of their best help defenders. Without them, OKC will be forced to send extra help from the perimeter.
The Thunder will likely clamp down on Ty Jerome up top, which will inevitably leave guys like Cameron Boozer loose on the short roll. Isaiah Hartenstein will probably play off Boozer to protect the rim, and Boozer will hit the kick-out pass to the corner over and over again.
This sets up Jaylen Wells nicely. He is coming off a brutal game against the Pacers where he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, making this a great buy-low opportunity.
The Grizzlies want this offense to hum, and against a depleted OKC defense that bleeds corner threes, Wells should get plenty of clean catch-and-shoot opportunities to clear this 1.5 line.
Pick: Jaylen Wells Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
Zach Edey Over 16.5 Points & Rebounds
By Jim Turvey
We are finally seeing the Memphis coaching staff start to ramp up Zach Edey's minutes, and he just played a season-high 25 minutes in his last outing, putting up 24 combined points and rebounds in what was arguably his best game of the year.
The Grizzlies are clearly executing a slow ramp-up plan for Edey, and his per-minute impact metrics remain remarkably strong.
While the Thunder present a very tough, physical frontcourt, this specific matchup actually works in Edey's favor regarding foul trouble.
Isaiah Hartenstein is a fantastic defender, but he isn't the type of imposing, foul-drawing center that is going to bait Edey into early fouls in the post.
As long as Edey avoids biting on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's mid-range pump fakes, he should be able to stay on the floor.
Edey is currently averaging around 15.5 points & rebounds in tough matchups while playing restricted minutes. Now that his playing time is crossing the 25-minute threshold, this 16.5 line is just too low.
As long as the Grizzlies don't get completely blown out early, I think we'll see Edey clear this total.
Pick: Zach Edey Over 16.5 Points & Rebounds (-115)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Thunder vs Grizzlies betting preview!
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Raptors vs Bucks Over/Under Prediction
Under 230.5
By Matt Moore
I am not going to sugarcoat it: the Bucks are an awful defensive basketball team, particularly when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll and giving up three-pointers. However, the Raptors simply lack the personnel to exploit that weakness.
As we saw against Denver, Toronto just cannot shoot from the perimeter. RJ Barrett was taking a bunch of threes, which is not his natural game. Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes need to get downhill to attack the rim, and outside of Ja'Kobe Walter, they don't have the shooting to punish Milwaukee.
Without Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors are basically the exact same team from last year, meaning they have a quality defense but a limited offensive ceiling.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are currently sitting at 29th in offensive efficiency despite adding Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyler Herro.
Using a composite of last year's figures—because a seven-game sample for this season is just too small to build a reliable total model—I have this game projected all the way down at 224.6. Even if I plug in this year's limited numbers, it lands at 225.
I'm showing over five points of value here, making the under a strong play.
Pick: Under 230.5 (-114)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Raptors vs Bucks betting preview!
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Jazz vs Mavericks Player Prop Bet
Cooper Flagg Over 25.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
I am going right back to Cooper Flagg to go over 25.5 points tonight. He let me down in his last game against the Spurs, but I don't even know how much I can blame him when Victor Wembanyama was just swatting shots out of thin air.
The most critical factor for Flagg right now is his seemingly bulletproof volume metrics. He hoisted 19 shots last game, and despite missing this line in two straight games against Sacramento and San Antonio, he has played 40 minutes in three consecutive contests.
Tonight, Flagg draws a soft matchup against a Jazz team that is awful on defense.
Utah possesses a terrible defensive rating, they are very weak in the pick-and-roll, they offer little resistance in the paint, and they allow a high volume of pull-up jump shots and free-throw attempts.
More importantly, the Jazz play a moderate pace but try to cover opponents straight up without sending much help. There is quite literally nobody on this Utah roster capable of covering Flagg one-on-one. Jaren Jackson Jr. is better utilized as a roaming defender, not a primary isolation stopper.
Flagg's volume is off the charts, and the shots should fall against this porous defense.
Pick: Cooper Flagg Over 25.5 Points (-120)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Jazz vs Mavericks betting preview!
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Timberwolves vs Pelicans Moneyline Pick
Timberwolves Moneyline
By Matt Moore
I’m right on market here at Wolves -4.5 on the power rating, but the Pelicans have been hanging around with teams lately.
The Pelicans have won four straight games, though none of their opponents in those wins were as good as Minnesota.
The Pelicans do have the size in the frontcourt to attack the Wolves with Zion Williamson and Derik Queen, and Jeremiah Fears is shifty.
But Minnesota is way more polished, and after that weird game where they got caught in the aftermath of Anthony Edwards’ injury, they’ve settled down nicely.
I expect the Wolves to win this game, but for the Pelicans to make it surprisingly close.
If Minnesota does lose this game, bet the winner of Grizzlies-Thunder for the NBA Cup Group Winner.
Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline (-184)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Timberwolves vs Pelicans betting preview!
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