We have an excellent slate of NBA Cup games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions for Friday, November 6.
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NBA Predictions for Friday, November 6
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Wizards vs. Hawks
The Wizards are fraudulent. Schedule-adjusted, they have a bottom-10 offense and defense despite sitting at 4-4.
I am tempted to just play Hawks moneyline, but unfortunately, my model still shows value on the Wizards against the 6.5-spread.
However, the under has hit in seven straight Wizards games, and their defense is actually closer to functional than their offense.
The Wizards hardly take any threes, which helps contain their offensive ceiling, and they are actually holding opponents to the second-lowest eFG% in the league.
The Hawks scored 120 points on Washington in DC on Wednesday, and the under still cruised.
I make this total 222.9 with nearly seven points of value on the under.
Washington’s defense has only allowed its opponent to go over their team total in one game this season, which was Wednesday against the Hawks.
I don’t think that will repeat with this line a point higher than the last game.
The Wizards’ offense is inept, their defense a little less so, and that’s why I think this total stays below the number.
Pick: Under 228.5 (-110)
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Celtics vs. Hornets
Brandon Miller averages the most corner three-point attempts on the Hornets, making one per game.
Boston gives up the second-most corner three attempts per game in the league and will likely be fine with Miller trying to beat them off ball.
Miller has to space the floor because Kon Kneuppel is out (again), and with Coby White back, he’ll have better opportunities against a defense that allows a high volume of three-pointers (oddly, and oddly successfully).
Pick: Brandon Miller Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110)
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76ers vs. Cavaliers
The spread implies this moneyline should be -166, and we’re getting -142. That’s it. That’s the handicap. Okay, that and the Sixers simply will not lose.
The Cavaliers are a good team but don’t seem to have any oomph this season. They’ve already given up a catastrophic collapse to this team earlier this season.
The Sixers are learning more and more about who they are and what they want to do.
I actually put the spread inside the number at +1.5. But at under a possession, I don’t want to buy into the idea that the Cavs are going to get right after that collapse earlier this season.
Joel Embiid should continue to dominate, especially with the Cavs having both Peyton Watson and Jarrett Allen questionable for this game.
I’ll just take the Sixers to keep rolling along on a cheaper moneyline than the market spread conversion, and take the team that brings more firepower to the front.
Pick: 76ers Moneyline (-142)
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Raptors vs. Bucks
I am not going to sugarcoat it: the Bucks are an awful defensive basketball team, particularly when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll and giving up three-pointers. However, the Raptors simply lack the personnel to exploit that weakness.
As we saw against Denver, Toronto just cannot shoot from the perimeter. RJ Barrett was taking a bunch of threes, which is not his natural game. Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes need to get downhill to attack the rim, and outside of Ja'Kobe Walter, they don't have the shooting to punish Milwaukee.
Without Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors are basically the exact same team from last year, meaning they have a quality defense but a limited offensive ceiling.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are currently sitting at 29th in offensive efficiency despite adding Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyler Herro.
Using a composite of last year's figures—because a seven-game sample for this season is just too small to build a reliable total model—I have this game projected all the way down at 224.6. Even if I plug in this year's limited numbers, it lands at 225.
I'm showing over five points of value here, making the under a strong play.
Pick: Under 230.5 (-114)
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Thunder vs. Grizzlies
I love targeting three-point props against teams that surrender a high volume of outside shots, and the Thunder currently allow the highest number of corner threes per game in the entire league.
Tonight, the Thunder's perimeter rotations are going to be significantly degraded because they are missing Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams, who are two of their best help defenders. Without them, OKC will be forced to send extra help from the perimeter.
The Thunder will likely clamp down on Ty Jerome up top, which will inevitably leave guys like Cameron Boozer loose on the short roll. Isaiah Hartenstein will probably play off Boozer to protect the rim, and Boozer will hit the kick-out pass to the corner over and over again.
This sets up Jaylen Wells nicely. He is coming off a brutal game against the Pacers where he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, making this a great buy-low opportunity.
The Grizzlies want this offense to hum, and against a depleted OKC defense that bleeds corner threes, Wells should get plenty of clean catch-and-shoot opportunities to clear this 1.5 line.
Pick: Jaylen Wells Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
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Timberwolves vs. Pelicans
I’m right on market here at Wolves -4.5 on the power rating, but the Pelicans have been hanging around with teams lately.
The Pelicans have won four straight games, though none of their opponents in those wins were as good as Minnesota.
The Pelicans do have the size in the frontcourt to attack the Wolves with Zion Williamson and Derik Queen, and Jeremiah Fears is shifty.
But Minnesota is way more polished, and after that weird game where they got caught in the aftermath of Anthony Edwards’ injury, they’ve settled down nicely.
I expect the Wolves to win this game, but for the Pelicans to make it surprisingly close.
If Minnesota does lose this game, bet the winner of Grizzlies-Thunder for the NBA Cup Group Winner.
Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline (-184)
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Trail Blazers vs. Lakers
I loved the under at on lookahead line for this game at 238.5, and even at the opening line of 236.5, but it crashed all the way to 231.5 in some places on Thursday — and I'm out on that.
However, I do like LA to get revenge here. Since the Blazers trounced the Lakers in LA last time out, they’ve lost Ja Morant and Vit Krejci.
The line last time was Lakers -1.5, and I don’t think that’s enough of an adjustment for how Morant was helping things, nor the matchup in particular.
The Blazers give up the most pull-up three-point attempts out of pick-and-roll per game in the league, and Luka Doncic is shooting the leather off the ball on exactly those shots.
Toumani Camara got great looks because of the downhill pressure the Blazers created last time out by Morant alongside Deni Avdija.
Camara will likely get fewer of those looks in this game, and I’m expecting a better Walker Kessler performance.
The Blazers have been phenomenal to start the season, but some regression is likely, and I think it starts here.
Pick: Lakers -2.5 (-118)
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Spurs vs. Kings
Spotting 15.5 points in an NBA game is usually terrifying, but you have to trust the math sometimes.
Since the beginning of last season, when the Spurs are favored by 15 or more points, they are a flawless 11-0 straight up. They do not lose these games, and they consistently blow teams off the floor.
My model actually projects this line all the way out to 18.5, giving me a solid three points of numerical value. I think the sportsbooks are still lagging behind on San Antonio's power rating because they threw us off the scent with a couple of weird games early on.
Since then, the Spurs have been an absolute destroyer of worlds. De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are playing great, and Victor Wembanyama is a terrifying human being; his performance last night was an absolute horror film for the opposition.
The Kings, meanwhile, are completely horrendous. They do not have the top-end talent or the structural ability to hang around in the pick-and-roll against a juggernaut like the Spurs. I'll lay the big number with San Antonio.
Pick: Spurs -15.5 (-110)
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