Brentford vs West Ham Odds, Pick: All Signs Point to the Under
Daniel Chesterton/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Ivan Toney of Brentford.
Brentford vs West Ham Odds
Brentford Odds | -110 |
West Ham Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110/ -110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-136/ +108) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The Premier League becomes much more high variance when the season draws toward a close, especially as some teams have little to play for in the final few matches. That potential is on the table Sunday as Brentford hosts West Ham. The Bees have had another stellar campaign under Thomas Frank and enter Sunday in 10th, with no real chance of getting into the top seven. West Ham could technically still be relegated if a dozen different results go against them, but their safety could be secured by the end of the weekend depending on results in other matches. The Hammers odds of going down are less than 1%, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI metric.
This match is extra complicated for the Hammers because of the situational spot. They came back to win 2-1 at home against AZ Alkmaar on Thursday in the Europa Conference League semifinal. They also travel to the Netherlands on Thursday and have a real chance at European silverware and a spot in the Europa League if they win. As a result, David Moyes may rotate players, which makes this match difficult to project.
Brentford
The Bees have only lost twice at home this season — against Arsenal and Newcastle — and Brentford's home and away splits remain more drastic than average for the second consecutive season. Brentford's biggest problem is that the consistent shot volume and pressure applied to opposing defenses just isn't there enough to get margin against equal or inferior teams. Even though Brentford came back to beat Nottingham Forest at home two weeks ago, that match was a perfect example of the issues. The Bees are bottom five in the league in shots per match, box entries per match and final third entries. Their possession rate is also in the bottom half of the league.
When Brentford plays against an opponent willing to cede possession, the Bees struggle. It's part of the reason why the Bees have the most draws in the league this season. Their defensive approach and countering ability is elite against superior teams and enables them to play up well. When they have to play a lesser foe, there's not enough shot margin.
Brentford normally has a set piece advantage against most of its opponents, but that's not quite the case against David Moyes' Hammers. West Ham has a tall group of first team players and they're well organized and drilled to not concede from set plays often. Given that West Ham could also rotate key attackers to preserve them for Sunday, goals and chances may be hard to come by.
West Ham
West Ham is one of the best penalty box defenses in the entire league and this will make for a good test of how Brentford performs in settled possession. Brentford is in the top eight in passes per defensive action, while Moyes's side is 19th. There's only four teams in the league that possess the ball less than the Bees, and West Ham is one.
Given his age and the number of minutes he's played recently, it's a good bet that Moyes will rotate Michail Antonio up front for West Ham and start Danny Ings instead. He could also see quick removals for the Hammers two best wingers — Jarrod Bowen and Said Benrahma — as all three will be needed Thursday.
Despite its mediocre position in the table, the Hammers defense is in the top seven in shots allowed, big scoring chances conceded and non-penalty xG allowed. Brentford and West Ham have different tactical ways of defending the penalty area, but both are excellent at forcing teams to shoot from distance and not allowing easy access to the high danger scoring areas of the pitch.
Brentford vs West Ham Pick
Brentford has just two wins all season in matches in which Frank's side had the ball 50% or more. One of those wins came with two late goals, including one deep into stoppage time against Forest. If you look down the list of results, you start to notice a pattern. Five of the six results were either 1-1 or goalless draws.
Brentford's shot production in those matches was also mediocre and often of poor quality. The Bees are much better at generating big scoring chances when they have less of the ball and can attack into more space against a frenetic and unprepared defense. That will not be the task Sunday against a rotated West Ham.
Even though goals tend to go up as motivation goes away near the end of the year, under 2.5 goals is the only side I could bet here.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
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