2019 3M Open Matchup Bets: Rory Sabbatini vs. Sung-jae Im
Jun 28, 2019; Detroit, MI, USA; Rory Sabbatini hits his tee shot on the 10th hole during the second round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic golf tournament at Detroit Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
- The 2019 3M Open starts on Thursday, July 4 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn.
- Justin Bailey uses metrics from FantasyLabs to break down one matchup offering betting value.
In this piece, I’ll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable individual betting matchups for the 2019 3M Open.
Let’s dive into this week’s action.
All odds as of Wednesday morning.
Rory Sabbatini (-125) over Sung-jae Im
In a vacuum, I like Im this week, but I have a hard time overlooking Sabbatini in this spot when his form is incredible. I expect the 3M Open to play as another birdie fest, although maybe not as extreme as the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week.
So, I’ll continue to chase Sabbatini while his form is this good. Per the FantasyLabs Player Models, he leads Im in two of the main metrics I am looking at:
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: 68.1 vs. 69.3
- Birdies per tournament: 16.8 vs. 14.4
Overall, Sabbatini has been better by 1.2 strokes per round over the past six weeks. He also has the edge in other metrics.
All of the par 5s at TPC Twin Cities are playing around 590 yards, and over their last 24 rounds, Sabbatini ranks 17th in par-5 efficiency from such ranges, compared to 40th for Im, respectively, per Fantasy National.
Perhaps the biggest selling point for me is the fact that Sabbatini is just striking the ball better than Im right now, and it’s not that close. Over their last 24 rounds:
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 3rd vs. 59th
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking: 3rd vs. 85th
- Strokes Gained: Approach: 21st vs. 109th
While Im has gone 27th, 27th, 7th over his last three tournaments, two of those tournaments he gained more than 5.5 strokes putting, while either losing or barely gaining strokes on approach.
I’ll back the guy who is striking it as well as anyone right now. I was able to get this line at -115 when lines first came out and it’s moved to -125 at most books. I wouldn’t lay more than -125.
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National