Perry’s 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Guide: Will Dustin Johnson Run Away in Detroit?

Jun 27, 2019 09:37 PM EDT
Credit:

Ray Carlin, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kevin Kisner

  • The 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic is a new event that takes place at Detroit Golf Club, which has never hosted a PGA Tour event before.
  • Dustin Johnson is the clear favorite at 6-1, but on a new course Josh Perry's strategy is to consider backing longshots who are in decent form.

Chez Reavie was able to parlay his U.S. Open form into his first win in 11 years at the Travelers. It was Reavie’s first win in 11 years.

I had a light card at the Travelers and was nowhere near Chez, so let’s move on to the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. Not only is this a new event for 2019, but it will be played on a course we’ve never seen before on the PGA Tour.

That being the case, I will put more weight into recent form and ball-striking numbers. My strategy will also be to pepper a lot more longshots, because we just don’t know how a new course will fit someone’s eye.

The Course

Detroit Golf Club will play at just over 7,300 yards for a par 72. It should provide ample scoring opportunities with a lot of short par 4s and reachable par 5s giving players a lot of chances to rack up birdies.

The course is also a Donald Ross design. Ross has also designed East Lake, home of the Tour Championship, as well has Pinehurst No. 2, Aronimink and Oak Hill.

Usually you don’t need to be a bomber to contend on Donald Ross’ courses. We’ve seen Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner and Martin Kaymer win on his tracks in recent years. Basically you want a player who is solid off the tee and can do damage with his approach game.

The Favorites

Dustin Johnson is the clear headliner here at +600. Johnson is in a minor slump, which for him means he hasn’t finished inside the top five in his last two tournaments. DJ has struggled with his putter for a couple of weeks, so if that turns around, he’ll be fine. But I don’t bet favorites most weeks and definitely won’t back him on a course we’ve never seen.

After DJ there are only three other players below 20-1 in this field. Rickie Fowler (12-1) is the second choice with Hideki Matsuyama and U.S. Open champ Gary Woodland right behind at 14-1.

I don’t think Fowler and Matsuyama aren’t worth backing below 20-1 and the value is gone with Woodland after his victory at Pebble Beach.

Mid-Tier

I’ll start my card with a couple plays in this range.

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