2020 Scottish Open Odds and Picks: Which Longshots Have Value at The Renaissance Club

2020 Scottish Open Odds and Picks: Which Longshots Have Value at The Renaissance Club article feature image
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Luke Walker, Getty Images. Pictured: Jorge Campillo

While the Sanderson Farms highlights the PGA TOUR schedule, it’s the Scottish Open that may have the stronger field this week.

It’s been a struggle trying to find winners on the European Tour, but the Renaissance Club was good to us last year with Bernd Wiesberger cashing at 40/1, so we’ll see if we can repeat that success

The European Tour has been a struggle for me to nail down, but the Renaissance Club was good to us last year with Bernd Wiesberger cashing at +4000, so we’ll see if we can repeat that success this weekend.

The Course

The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland hosts the event for the second time. It is set up to play a little long this time around, checking in at 7,343 yards for a par 71.

The course played pretty easy in 2019 with Wiesberger outlasting Benjamin Hebert in a playoff after both players ended at 22-under par.

As with most links-style courses, the wind will be the primary defense this weekend. The forecast has winds hovering in the 15 MPH range with temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s this week, so the cool, breezy weather coupled with that added length could limit those scoring opportunities a little bit.

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The Favorites

Tommy Fleetwood and Matthew Fitzpatrick headline this field and are sitting at the top of the oddsboard at +1000 and +1200, respectively.

Fleetwood didn’t play this tournament last year but a third-place finish in Portugal three weeks ago showed he still has the tee-to-green edge over these European fields despite some mediocre results in the US.

Fitzpatrick was 14th here last year and has had his name pop up on the leaderboard a few times in some strong fields on the PGA TOUR.

There’s a gap between Fitzpatrick and the next tier, which includes Bernd Wiesberger, Thomas Pieters and Martin Kaymer, all three of whom opened at +2200.

Kaymer has a couple of top-three finishes in his most recent European Tour events and appears to be on the cusp of finally getting over the hump for the first time since 2014.

Pieters hasn’t really played much, but has been solid from tee-to-green every week. The lack of reps show most in his putting where he’s been losing a stroke per round on average this year.

The Mid-Tier

I’ll open here with Matt Wallace at +3000. Wallace has been up and down in the US but is a prolific winner on this side of the Atlantic, grabbing four titles since 2017.

Wallace enters in good form, making seven of his last eight cuts and a 14th-place finish here last year shows he should be comfortable on this course.

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My other play in this range is Jorge Campillo at +6600. Campillo is kind of like the Spanish Kevin Na. They both went years without winning, but in a short time, they’ve added a few trophies to their collection.

Campillo has four straight top-20 finishes in Europe and won in Qatar prior to the shutdown.

Even though he missed the cut last year here, I think his iron play and strong short game could keep his good play rolling this week.

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Longshots

I’ll tack on a couple names down in this range as well, starting with Lorenzo Gagli at 150/1 . Gagli drew my attention because of his strong iron and scrambling ability.

He’s had a few good results, finishing inside the top-25 in four of his last seven starts, and was 14th here last season.

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Lastly, I’ll take a chance on Richard Bland at 150/1 on DK. He’s probably better off as a top-20 bet or a fantasy play since he never actually wins, but he’s made seven of eight cuts since the restart, including three top-25 finishes, so he’s been in good form for a few months.

Bland is gaining strokes in all four metrics in Europe this year and while nothing pops off the board as a clear strength, his solid overall game and ability to keep the ball in play could be a big advantage if the weather becomes an issue.

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The Scottish Open Card

  • Matt Wallace +3300 (1 unit)
  • Jorge Campillo +5500 (.6 units)
  • Lorenzo Gagli +15000 (.22 units)
  • Richard Bland+15000 (.22 units)

Total Stake: 2.04 units

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