Perry’s Shriners Betting Guide, Odds, Picks: Can Wolff Ride Recent Form to Win in Las Vegas?
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Wolff.
- Josh Perry breaks down his outright card for the 2020 Shriners Hospital For Children Open, which begins Thursday in Las Vegas.
- Matthew Wolff, fresh off a second-place finish at the U.S. Open, headlines his bets, with Doc Redman, Cam Davis and a little-known longshot behind him.
- Get Perry's full breakdown and card for the Shriners below.
The PGA TOUR returns to Las Vegas this week with the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
It will be the first of two events taking place in Sin City after the CJ Cup was moved from South Korea to Shadow Creek Golf Course earlier this year.
After a couple weeks off following the U.S. Open, we’ll finally get a few of the game’s elite players back for this event.
TPC Summerlin hosts the event, which is a pretty familiar stop for the TOUR during the fall swing. It’s a relatively easy course, measuring at 7,255 yards for a par 71 layout. Outside of the 2017 edition, when the winds picked up and 9-under par won in a playoff, the champion usually gets to around 20-under par.
The top players are tough to beat on this course. Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson have won here fairly recently. However, without much trouble to test the players from tee to green, this can turn into a bit of a putting contest and we’ll see the odd longshot triumph, like when Rod Pampling held off Brooks Koepka in 2016.
Bryson DeChambeau makes his first appearance since his U.S. Open triumph and, unsurprisingly, opened as the +700 favorite. This course will do little to deter him from his bomb-and-gouge style.
Usually, there isn’t much rough on this course and given how well DeChambeau putts, he’s a real threat to take this down assume there’s no U.S. Open hangover.
A pair of former winners at this event, Webb Simpson (+1100) and Patrick Cantlay (+1600), are next in line and the only other golfers listed below 20/1.
This has been an especially good spot for Cantlay, who has a pair of runner-up finishes to go with the victory in his last three appearances. Cantlay has struggled since the restart by his standards, so this will be a good spot for him to find his game.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2000), Tony Finau (+2000) and Collin Morikawa (+2200) are in that next wave. Finau and Matsuyama have never really contended here, but they also have yet to miss a cut.
The ball-striking seems to be good enough for both to make the weekend, but as we mentioned, the hot putter tends to allude them here like many other TOUR stops. Morikawa made the cut as a rookie last year.
Given his recent success this season, he should probably be ahead of both these players on the outright market.
I’ll start my card in that next group with Matthew Wolff at +2800 on BetMGM. Wolff had a good showing here on debut last year, with four rounds in the 60s to finish in 18th place. The ball striking has been solid for a few months now and he’s shown the ability to catch a hot putter a few times this summer.
I’ll back a couple guys in this range, starting with Cameron Davis at +6600 on Bet365. Davis continued his solid play last week with a sixth-place finish at the Sanderson Farms. He’s been strong off the tee for a couple months now and Bentgrass is the one surface he’s gained strokes putting for his career.
I’ll also go with Doc Redman at +8000 on Bet365. Redman was a popular pick last week to grab that first win. I’ll go to him this week after a couple decent showings during the early part of the fall at the Safeway and Sanderson Farms. The ball striking is in good shape across the board and he usually loses strokes putting, but has hovered around field average on Bentgrass greens.
I’ll take one flier here with MJ Daffue at 250/1 on Bet365. The guy has been grinding out results through Monday qualifying for a year now on the PGA TOUR and the Korn Ferry. This week, he’s avoided that stress.
Daffue hit his irons extremely well last week, gaining over seven strokes on his way to a 12th-place finish. He’s only had one appearance on Bentgrass greens this year, but gained nine strokes at Muirfield Village.
He’s probably better off as a Top-20 play, but Daffue has made the cut in four of his five starts in 2020 on the PGA TOUR and we’ve seen a few extremely long shots like Rod Pampling and Smylie Kaufman come through here.
The Shriners Card
This week’s card is a little lighter than normal. It’s one of those events where the top three favorites are past champions and have strong histories on this course.
If DeChambeau shows his U.S. Open form, this is a perfect spot for him, so I’ll be more cautious and maybe look to add a guy or two if I see he’s not completely dialed in.
- Matthew Wolff +2800 (1.18 units)
- Cameron Davis +6600 (.5 units)
- Doc Redman +8000 (.41 units)
- MJ Daffue +25000 (.13 units)
Total Stake: 2.22 units