2021 AT&T Byron Nelson First-Round Leader Bets and Picks: Spieth, Leishman and Wise Provide Value at TPC Craig Ranch
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick
THE PGA TOUR heads to Texas this week for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. This is the TOUR debut for this Tom Weiskopf design, so we don't have any course history to lean on when trying to find some value in the First-Round Leader (FRL) market. But that's why I'm here to help with my six favorite first-round leader bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson:
Jordan Spieth | +2800
Tee time: 1:33 p.m. ET
The Texas native first played this event in 2010 as a 16-year-old amateur on a sponsor's invite. Spieth went on to make the cut and finish — wait for it– T16 in was his first-ever PGA TOUR start.
Fast forward 11 years and not surprisingly, Spieth is one of the game's biggest stars. Although he is coming out of a four-year rut, Spieth won again at the Valero Texas Open a few months back, so his game seems to be in a great place right now.
Despite a very middle-of-the-pack first round scoring average, Spieth loves golf in the state of Texas. Especially when the Jesuit Prep Alum gets to play in his hometown.
Matt Fitzpatrick | +3300
Tee time: 1:33 p.m. ET
I love to tout the young Englishman whenever I can, and this week is no exception. He's one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR, and all signs indicate that SG: Approach will be a key factor in handicapping this tournament.
SG: APP will play a factor in your selections.
"Call me Matt, not Matthew", aka Fitzy, can flight shots low into the wind, because he's from England. Where the wind blows and sheep fly. (I think?)
Fitzpatrick is known to get off to blazing starts on Thursdays, and after his recent break, I suspect this week will be no different.
Scottie Scheffler | +3300
Tee time: 1:33 p.m. ET
Add another Texas grad to the list with Scottie Scheffler. He boasts a 69.6 first-round scoring average, which is good enough to sit comfortably inside the top-10 on TOUR.
It's also worth mentioning, much like his good friend Jordan Spieth, Scheffler also had a stellar amateur performance at this event in 2014.
He's been such a consistent player the last two years, it's hard to imagine he only just won Rookie of the Year honors for 2020.
Marc Leishman | +5000
Tee time: 8:34 a.m. ET
Three Australians have won this event in the last 20 years: Adam Scott ('08). Jason Day ('10) and Stephen Bowditch ('15). The Aussies just love this windy, desert golf that Texas offers. It must remind these blokes of Down Under.
Leishman is in great form, finished solo second at this event in 2018 (albeit on a different course) and is known to go low here and there.
Leishman is a solid pick all around in Dallas.
Thomas Pieters | +6600
Tee time: 2:50 p.m. ET
The fiery Belgian tends to pop up every so often on the PGA TOUR, only to find himself with great odds and very little respect from the Vegas bookmakers. (Much to my delight).
After being ranked as high as the Top-30 in the Official World Golf Rankings, the former Fighting Illini has since dropped to just outside the Top-80. However, that should not deter you from betting him. Pieters enters the week 6th in SG:APP and 12th in SG:Ball Striking.
Aaron Wise | +6600
Tee time: 8:34 a.m. ET
The 2018 winner is a roll-coaster ride of a player. His game has been returning to form recently, and he looks poised for a hot start in Dallas.
His ball-striking stats are great, but he struggles a little bit with the putter. If he can keep hitting it close, the putting might not really matter — especially in just a single round. Wise also played well last week in Charlotte, where he netted a top-10 finish.
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